THE SNP are on course to remain the dominant party in Scottish politics at the 2026 Holyrood election, new polling for The National has found.
A Find Out Now survey of 1774 Scottish adults predicted that the SNP would make up the bulk of a pro-independence majority after the next Holyrood election – as the only party with more than 20 MSPs.
A Westminster poll which was run concurrently suggested a major reversal of fortunes in the London parliament as well. Should a new General Election be run, the SNP would return 41 Scottish MPs while Labour would drop to eight, seat projections from polling expert Professor John Curtice predicted.
The Holyrood polling
The new Find Out Now poll showed a fracturing Unionist vote due to the emergence of Reform UK, with only the SNP garnering more than 20% of the constituency or regional list vote.
With those who responded “don’t know” removed, the survey projected a 35% vote share for the SNP in the constituency vote. This compared to 19% for Labour, 15% for the Tories, 11% for Reform UK, 9% for the LibDems, 7% for the Greens, and 2% for Alba.
On the regional lists, the SNP were also ahead but by a narrower margin. They were predicted to win 26% of the vote compared to Labour’s 17%, the Tories’ 14%, the Greens’ 13%, Reform UK’s 11%, the LibDems’ 10%, and Alba’s 6%.
Professor Curtice projected that those vote shares would lead to 54 SNP MSPs, 15 Green MSPs, and three Alba MSPs in a breakthrough for that party.
That would mean a total of 72 pro-independence MSPs, a clear majority of 15 in a parliament with 129 seats.
On the Unionist side, Labour would be the largest group – but would return just 19 MSPs. This would represent a drop of three from their current total and a historic low for Scottish Labour.
Under Curtice’s modelling, the Conservatives were projected to return 16 MSPs, the LibDems 12, and Reform UK 10.
The Westminster polling
The Find Out Now poll also asked Scots how they would vote in a General Election, and found a 14-point lead for the SNP over Labour.
In the July General Election, Labour won 37 Scottish seats with 35% of the vote, while the SNP returned nine MPs with 30% of the vote.
If the vote were to be re-run today, the new poll suggested the SNP would win 34% of the vote, while Labour would drop to 20%.
The Tories fell behind Reform UK in the Westminster voting question, polling at 14% to Reform UK’s 15%. However, this was not projected to transfer into a Scottish seat.
The LibDems polled at 9%, the Greens on 6%, and 2% said they would back another party.
Professor Curtice’s modelling, using uniform movement since the 2024 election, projected that the SNP would win 41 of Scotland’s 57 constituencies. Labour would win eight, the LibDems five, and the Tories three.
What are the parties saying
Alba welcomed the poll as a sign that they may make a major breakthrough in 2026 and have their first politicians elected. The party does have one MSP and several councillors, but they have all defected while in office rather than being elected on the Alba ticket.
Chris McEleny, the party’s general secretary, said the poll “shows we are winning public support and would win seats at the Scottish Parliament”.
“It is now our aim to return a significant vote for independence at the Holyrood elections so that we can become part of a pro-independence coalition to advance the cause of Scotland,” he added.
The poll also had good news for the Greens, predicting a record result of 15 MSPs for the party.
The party’s co-leader Lorna Slater MSP said: “2026 will be a crucial election, it is our last real chance to tackle the climate emergency, and it's vital that we maintain Holyrood's pro-independence majority.
“Last time the Scottish Greens had our greatest ever election and since then we have been delivering for the people of Scotland … The next election will be pivotal for our common future. The only way to deliver progressive independence voices is to vote Scottish Greens.”
SNP MSP Stuart McMillan said the polling showed that “under John Swinney’s leadership, the SNP is offering hope and delivering real progress on the people of Scotland’s priorities”.
“The First Minister's first Budget delivers on people's priorities – with record investment in the NHS and decisive action to eradicate child poverty – like scrapping Labour's two child cap. The SNP has also reversed Labour's cut to the Winter Fuel Payment for pensioners in Scotland,” he said.
“The SNP will continue to listen to voters, deliver on their priorities and always put the interests of Scotland first.”
Scottish Labour issued a boilerplate response to the poll, with a spokesperson saying: “This year Labour got rid of one failing government by removing the Tories from office – but the job is only half done.
“Scotland is still being let down by a tired and incompetent SNP Government that has let NHS waiting lists soar and homelessness hit record levels.
“Scottish Labour will work tirelessly to earn voters’ trust and demonstrate that we can deliver the change in direction our country so badly needs.”
Find Out Now polled 1774 Scottish adults aged 18+ between December 17 and 24.
