A growing number of pro-independence supporters privately believe Nicola Sturgeon’s aim of holding IndyRef2 by the end of next year is a non-starter.
If we are to take the promise seriously, an eighteen month window exists for staging another vote.
With Cabinet Secretary Angus Robertson narrowing it down to October next year, the whole business has to be completed within sixteen.
The easiest route, and one that would ensure a 2023 referendum, is a joint agreement with Westminster.
But a deal has been ruled out by the Tory Government, making a procedural rerun of 2014 impossible.
The likely plan B - a Holyrood-only Bill - is fraught with difficulties and screams delay at every turn.
It is not certain whether MSPs can pass legally watertight legislation to stage another vote - doubts which explain why no referendum Bill has been lodged.
If a Bill is not presented by the end of June, the earliest it can appear at Holyrood is September, eleven months before Robertson’s date.
Introducing such a Bill is possible and would be passed by Scotland’s pro-independence parliament.
But it is equally certain that a legal challenge would be mounted and heard ultimately in the UK Supreme Court.
This would entail a protracted court dispute involving lawyers, judges and the passage of time.
Scotland has more chance of competing in the World Cup than staging IndyRef2 in October next year.
As Campbell Gunn, who advised two SNP First Ministers, said: “I just don’t see the timescale working for the SNP.”
Every indication is Sturgeon will use the next general election to ramp up the pressure on Westminster.
Her 2023 timescale is about party management and deferring it a few months would likely deliver another election win.
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