SCOTS have backed independence for the fourth poll in a row, according to the latest data from YouGov.
The survey of 1090 voters is the first time this particular firm has recorded a lead for the Yes movement in more than two years.
It comes following three other polls – by Redfield & Wilton Strategies, Ipsos and Find Out Now – which all found those polled were in favour of independence.
This comes after the Supreme Court ruled Scotland could not legislate for an independence referendum without Westminster’s consent.
When undecided and non-voters are excluded in this particular poll, support for independence sits at 53% compared with 47% for the Union.
This marks a major change from a previous YouGov poll conducted at the end of September and into early October which showed indy support with undecides excluded sat at just 49%.
With “don’t knows” included in this poll, support for independence sat at 47% while support for the Union fell as low as 42%.
The Times reports that leading polling expert Sir John Curtice said this was the joint highest pro-independence result since August 2020.
He said: “On this evidence, just saying ‘no’ to another ballot does not look like a viable long-term strategy for maintaining public support for the Union.”
The UK Government has repeatedly ruled out granting another referendum.
New Scottish Independence poll, YouGov 6 - 9 Dec (changes vs 30 Sep - 4 Oct): Yes ~ 47% (+4) No ~ 42% (-3) Don't Know ~ 8% (+1) Excluding Don't Knows (/ vs 2014): Yes ~ 53% (+4 / +8) No ~ 47% (-4 / -8) pic.twitter.com/o8IBNv1TRZ
— Ballot Box Scotland (@BallotBoxScot) December 12, 2022
In the wake of the result, the SNP have said that Scotland’s voice must be heard. The party’s deputy leader Keith Brown said that the “longer Westminster continues to ignore us, the more support for independence will grow”.
He continued: “More and more people in Scotland are looking at the utter incompetence of this Tory government, and how the Labour Party has abandoned them to adopt a disastrous pro-Brexit policy, and realising that the only way Scotland can escape the long-term damage of Brexit and Westminster control is with independence.
“The people of Scotland simply will not stand for the Westminster parties’ Trump-like democracy denial.
“The people of Scotland have already voted for a referendum
Following the Supreme Court ruling, Nicola Sturgeon has said that the next general election would act as a “de facto” referendum.
Under this plan, if more than 50% of the electorate voted for pro-independence parties, then the First Minister would argue this was a clear mandate to open negotiations with the UK Government.
In a recent Ipsos Mori poll, 53% of those surveyed said they would back the SNP while a further 2% said they would vote Green, taking the pro-independence vote share to 55%.
However, it’s a subject which has been divisive with this latest polling suggesting support for the SNP in a General Election would fall by two points to 43%.
Backing for Labour also dropped by two points to 29%, while the percentage planned to back the Tories sat at just 14%.
Plus, 52% of people said they did not believe that pro-independence parties securing a majority of the vote could be considered a mandate for independence.
However, 51% of those polled believed Holyrood should have the power to hold an independence referendum.
There also continues to be division over when a vote should take place, with 52% opposed to another ballot in 2023, 38% in favour and 9% unsure.
Instead, 51% said there should be a referendum in the next five years.
