Neither of these two are where they want to be after three rounds. In the case of Wales, rock bottom cannot be worse than where they feared they might be; in the case of Scotland, fourth must be so much worse than they had hoped. And some might say deserve.
Eyebrows may rise, then, at the news that both coaches will more or less send out the same teams that featured in their respective defeats in round three. But Six Nations tend to have narratives more nuanced than those supplied by the table at any given moment.
Scotland make the only change across the two XVs – and that to bring back Darcy Graham after the concussion he suffered in the defeat by Ireland in round two, without doubt the most disappointing of Scotland’s three performances. He comes in for Kyle Rowe, who replaced him for the defeat in Twickenham in round three, without doubt the most cruel.
“He’d trained with us prior to the England game,” said Gregor Townsend, “but we felt that was a game too early for him and we made sure he didn’t do contact that week. But he’s done full contact for the past 10 days now. He was in great form before his injury, and we expect him to be in similar form now. He’s trained really well.”
Scotland, after the strange slump for the visit of Ireland, long their bogey team, ran rings round England a fortnight ago and managed to lose. They have had little luck with the grounding or otherwise of balls over the line lately. Denied a late win against France last season, when it seemed clear they had grounded the ball, they lost in London last time out courtesy of the only try England managed, which quite clearly had not been grounded.
Finn Russell’s failure to convert any of the three tries Scotland scored in response did not help either, but there is little wrong with Scotland’s form, having scored 10 tries so far, for the concession of only six, a balance second only to France’s. Thus the minimal changes.
British Gas Murrayfield, 4.45pm, Saturday 8 March
Scotland: B Kinghorn (Toulouse); D Graham (Edinburgh), H Jones (Glasgow), T Jordan (Glasgow), D van der Merwe (Edinburgh); F Russell (Bath, capt), B White (Toulon); P Schoeman (Edinburgh), D Cherry (Edinburgh), Z Fagerson (Glasgow), J Gray (Bordeaux), G Gilchrist (Edinburgh), J Ritchie (Edinburgh), R Darge (Glasgow, capt), J Dempsey (Glasgow). Replacements: E Ashman (Edinburgh), R Sutherland (Glasgow), W Hurd (Leicester), G Brown (Glasgow), M Fagerson (Glasgow), G Horne (Glasgow), K Rowe (Glasgow), S McDowall (Glasgow).
Wales: B Murray (Scarlets); T Rogers (Scarlets), M Llewellyn (Gloucester), B Thomas (Cardiff), E Mee (Scarlets); G Anscombe (Gloucester), T Williams (Gloucester); N Smith (Leicester), E Dee (Dragons), W John (Sale Sharks), W Rowlands (Racing 92), D Jenkins (Exeter), J Morgan (Ospreys, capt), T Reffell (Leicester), T Faletau (Cardiff). Replacements: D Lake (Ospreys), G Thomas (Ospreys), K Assiratti (Cardiff), E Williams (Cardiff), A Wainwright (Dragons), R Williams (Dragons), J Evans (Harlequins), J Roberts (Scarlets).
“It’s a reward for most of the 23 that played at Twickenham,” said Townsend. “Performance-wise, it was very good. We created opportunities, scored three tries and could have scored more.”
Certainly, they are in a happier place than Wales, who go into this match 16-point underdogs. Should things go the way the bookies expect, Wales will equal Italy’s record for the most consecutive defeats by a Tier 1 team in the professional era. The reason they have chosen an unchanged team – for the first time since 2019 – is the performance in the home defeat by Ireland. It was Wales’s 15th loss in a row but their interim coach, Matt Sherratt, repeating his first selection is an exercise in refreshing common sense after the eccentricities into which his predecessor had slipped.
Warren Gatland paid for defeat number 14 with his job. Hence Sherratt’s elevation to that role, even if only in the “interim”. His new team responded with a lively performance, leading mighty Ireland at the break, holding them to 18-18 on the hour, before three late penalties clinched the match for the visitors.
Townsend, at least, was impressed. “They played really well in the last Test against Ireland,” he said. “They have a different coaching staff and other players coming back into the squad, and you can see they’re playing with freedom and moving the ball wide. I’m sure they’ll come with that same mindset and give it everything.”
Sherratt confirmed that this was indeed their plan. “This week we’ve challenged ourselves to keep improving. We want to keep the same intent and bravery as we showed last time out.”
Particularly excited will be Dewi Lake, Wales’s sometime captain. The hooker returns from a biceps injury to take up position on the bench, whence he would make his first Six Nations appearance in three years. “He’s been excellent,” said the scrum coach, Adam Jones. “He’s a former captain and has been a big player for Wales in the last few years. He’s adding another voice. He’s a big bugger as well. He wants to carry.”
Wales are not exactly spoilt for candidates for the Lions tour, but Lake may be one of them. “Dare I say,” said Jones, “it’s a big year for him with what’s going on in the summer. That’s the beauty of this year. Anyone who plays well in the Six Nations has a chance to tour in the summer. You can lose your ticket on the plane by having a bad game or you can get it by having a big game. There’s a few boys in our squad who are in the mix and he’s one of them. It’s good to have him back.”
