Scorching heat in the UK is becoming more deadly, according to a new study. The research comes as temperatures are expected to reach 33C in southern England today (June 17) - hotter than Jamaica and the Maldives.
Heatwaves in the south east cause a 7% spike in the risk of an early death when temperatures creep into the low 30sC, the study warns. And in Aberdeenshire in Scotland, temperatures of just 26.7C raises the risk by 4% compared to the southeast of England.
In 2019, a temperature of 38.7C broke the UK's maximum ever observed of 38.5C set in 2003 - causing 892 excess deaths. Researchers from Surrey's Global Centre for Clean Air Research (GCARE) at the University of Surrey examined mortality and maximum daily temperatures across 38 years from 1981 to 2018 in southeast England and Aberdeenshire.
They concluded that global warming has increased heatwaves which are making more people in rural areas of England severely ill today than they were in the 1980s. Professor Prashant Kumar, director of GCARE, said: "Heatwaves are getting deadlier, even in Britain.
"We already knew that the urban heat island effect exacerbates the problem in cities, but now we also have proof that people living in less built-up areas are also threatened. The risk persists for very extreme temperature after several days of exposure at both sites and the hazard cannot be underestimated and neglected."
The risks have been less studied in more countryside areas so they focused their research on southeast England and Aberdeenshire as two bucolic representative study sites differing in their geography and demography. They are now calling on policymakers and fellow scientists to not forget the countryside when formulating solutions to combat the damaging effects of climate change.
The researchers found that people living in southeast England are now 7% more likely to die prematurely when the temperature rises about 6C above 26.5C. In Aberdeenshire, the risk of dying prematurely increases by 4%, compared to southeast England, when the temperature increases by just two degrees from 24.5C to 26.7C.
The researchers say that there are many ways to help what might become an increasing problem. As well as just staying indoors, engineer-based solutions include cool roofs, fans and air conditioning.
There are also environmentally-friendly ways of keeping cool such as green roofs and green infrastructure, such as mixed forest, grasslands and mixed shrublands. Prof Kumar added: "The problem of rising temperatures is pronounced in southern England, but it's probably only a matter of time before northern areas experience the same.
"More needs to be done to prepare for hot weather, and leaders in Government, whether national, devolved or local, need to update their heat action plans and identify how to protect vulnerable people during heatwaves."
For the United Kingdom, a heatwave has been defined as at least three consecutive days when daily maximum temperature breaches the threshold defined for each county. The severity of a heatwave depends on several factors including its relative and absolute intensity and duration.
Heatwaves can have devastating effects on human well-being, especially in urban areas where air pollution and urban heat island exacerbate the problem. The research has been published in the journal Sustainable Cities and Society.
