While Chancellor Olaf Scholz meets world leaders in Brazil, a discussion is swirling in his party at home about whether he should seek a second term as German leader in an early election expected in February.
Unlike their rivals, Scholz's center-left Social Democrats haven't yet formally nominated their candidate for chancellor in the vote expected Feb. 23. And that is generating persistent speculation that the party might instead choose to run with Defense Minister Boris Pistorius, who enjoys higher popularity. Party leaders and Cabinet ministers insist that Scholz will be the candidate but have struggled to tamp down talk of a switch.
Two influential lawmakers said late Monday that Scholz's “current standing is strongly linked with the ... coalition” that he led until it collapsed two weeks ago in a dispute about how to revive Germany's stagnant economy.
Wiebke Esdar and Dirk Wiese, who lead a group of Social Democratic lawmakers from North Rhine-Westphalia, Germany's most populous state, said in a statement that while Scholz's work and decisions will be judged far more positively “at some distance,” a debate is playing out in lawmakers' districts.
“In the center is the question of what the best political lineup is now for this election,” they said. “We are hearing a lot of compliments for Boris Pistorius. It is clear that ultimately the party committees will decide on the question of the candidacy for chancellor, and that is also the right place for it.”
Scholz doesn't have a formal position in the party leadership, but Social Democrat leaders have stood firmly behind Scholz even as polls show support for the party stuck around 16% — roughly half the level of the center-right opposition Union bloc, which is in the lead.
That compares with the 25.7% it scored to narrowly win the 2021 election, in which Scholz — then a well-regarded vice chancellor and finance minister — was able to come from behind and present himself as the safest pair of hands against rivals who struggled with gaffes and party infighting.
The chancellor's popularity declined along with the standing of his coalition with the environmentalist Greens and the pro-business Free Democrats, which gained a reputation for incessant squabbling and poor communication while presiding over a weak economy. Its troubles came to a head on Nov. 6, when Scholz fired Finance Minister Christian Lindner and Lindner's Free Democrats quit the government.
Scholz plans to call a confidence vote in parliament for Dec. 16. He's expected to lose that, paving the way for Germany's president to dissolve parliament and call the new election seven months before it was originally planned.
Scholz has made clear for months that he intends to run for a second term.
Hours before the intervention by Esdar and Wiese, the Social Democrats' co-leader, Saskia Esken, reiterated her support.
“We are determined to go into the election campaign with Olaf Scholz and to win this election together with him,” Esken told ARD television. “He is ... our chancellor, our candidate for chancellor.”
Asked why the party leadership hadn't formally decided that yet, she replied: “Because it's so clear.”
Scholz himself is expected to return from the Group of 20 summit in Rio de Janeiro on Wednesday.
Rivals have already made their decisions. The Union bloc nominated Friedrich Merz as its challenger in September. Scholz's remaining coalition partners, the Greens, named Vice Chancellor Robert Habeck to head up their challenge on Sunday.
Pistorius has repeatedly said he stands behind Scholz and has given no indication that he plans to run for chancellor, but also hasn't entirely ruled it out. “You should never rule out anything in politics, no matter what it's about,” he said at an event in Passau Monday, German news agency dpa reported.
