As India rejoices over the success of its moon mission, and is set to host the G-20 summit, it might be useful for its leaders to heed lessons from the Chandrayaan mission, viz., that “instead of focusing on achieving success, we [ISRO] focussed on eliminating failures”. This is a pre-election year and it is more important for policymakers not to sweep uncomfortable aspects under the carpet, or remain content with an apparent surface calm that can oftentimes be illusory. Several disparate developments — not all of them healthy — are currently taking place across the Indian landmass. Several have the potential to cause serious trouble now and in the future. It is essential and important that these are properly assessed, lest any of the situations go out of control. All events have a life of their own. If quite a few, or even if some of them were to coalesce as elections approach, the nation could face a difficult situation.
Manipur, a microcosm of the northeast
Manipur, in India’s northeast and which abuts Myanmar is a test case. This State has been on the boil for several weeks now, and as policymakers endlessly debate the reasons for the Manipur imbroglio, area experts by now recognise that it indeed has the potential to engulf the entire northeast region. The preponderance of different tribes with distinct affiliations across the northeast, makes it essential that the situation is controlled at the earliest for, if matters were to get out of hand still more, they might well provoke a ‘prairie fire’.
Manipur may be seen by the uninitiated as a minor blip on India’s security horizon, but it does in many ways reflect the microcosm of problems that affect the entire northeast. Lasting solutions for many of them have evaded successive administrations. An intricate web of tribal affiliations, for instance, bind the Mizos of Mizoram with the Kukis and Zomis of Manipur, apart from the Chins of Myanmar and the Kuki-Chins of Bangladesh. The Nagas of Nagaland have their separate set of affiliations, some across the border in Myanmar. What should not be lost sight of all the more is that the intrinsic potential of the National Socialist Council of Nagalim (NSCN-IM) to create trouble has by no means been curbed to any significant extent.
Assam falls in a separate and different category. While the United Liberation Front of Assam-Independent and Bodo youth are currently quiescent, they remain active just below the surface. Weapons and firearms are plenty across the entire region, which should be a cause for concern. The short point is that periods of calm in the northeast often obscure the undercurrents of tension just below the surface.
Other threats, need for vigil
What applies to militant contestations in the northeast may not apply, mutatis mutandis, to the situation existing in the hinterland, but vigilance should be the watchword. The nature and content of the threats posed may be different, but they often tend to be more intense. The Maoists, for instance, whom many across India appear to have written off as a threat in the absence of spectacular attacks such as the Dantewada massacre (in 2010), Chhattisgarh (in 2013) and Sukma (in 2017 and 2021), a reduction in their areas of operations, and a lull in activities since 2007, are still a threat. It is not for nothing that analysts worldwide categorise the CPI (Maoists) as one of the top terrorist groups in the world. These experts do not accept the thesis that the threat the Maoists pose has been eliminated.
Since late 2020, the movement has been in a resurgent mode. The movement may no longer resemble ‘the Spring Thunder over India’ (of the late 1960s and early 1970s), but it remains a legatee of the ideological movement launched over half a century ago. A selective process of mergers and demergers and a new leadership pattern have altered their priorities, but they do claim far greater support for their ideas in urban areas. Their claim to have become ‘influencers of public opinion’ in urban areas does not lack credibility as many of the uninitiated tend to think. As the country moves toward the general election next year, the Naxalites will, thus, remain a potential threat.
There are several other factors at play today that could impact the ground situation. A potent issue is that of right-wing terror. Geo-politics often influences the course of right-wing terror, and given the state of the world today, India needs to be on its guard. The Islamic State (IS) which was believed to be in decline (since 2019) is showing signs of a major resurgence. It has overcome its leadership issues and has a new Caliph in Abu Hafs al-Hashimi al-Quraishi. It has also established regular supply lines to obtain state-of-the-art weapons, including North Atlantic Treaty Organization-calibre weapons.
Hence, India’s false sense of security created by the absence of a major terror attack for quite some time now will need to be revisited. Such an attitude would be contrary to current trends across the world, with experts repeatedly affirming that right-wing terror is witnessing a resurgence. Experts also aver that of the countries in Asia, it is India and Indonesia that are in the crosshairs of the IS. Some reduction in the levels of violence in Jammu and Kashmir of late must not lead to an erroneous belief that the terror threat has reduced; in many newer regions, including the South, terror networks are being established. When and where the attacks could develop will necessarily demand good intelligence and anticipation.
On polarisation
A further unfortunate trend that has manifested itself of late, and which could escalate in a pre-election year, is the re-emergence of communal violence and communal riots in the country. This is attributed to increasing polarisation along religious lines. Several pockets of communal tension have all of a sudden emerged across the country. These are not confined to one particular State or pocket, although very serious violence has manifested itself recently in Haryana and Maharashtra.
Forensic analysis of what took place in Nuh and Gurugram recently, and the earlier incidents in Maharashtra and some other regions, also reveal certain very disturbing aspects — that quite a few instances of riots were deliberate. Also, that the divide between the Hindu and Muslim communities is growing apace. Communal violence has also been spreading to areas hitherto perceived to be relatively free of such problems. The nature apart from the content of the violence does not bode well for the country, specially so in a pre-election year. Hence, all this will need detailed attention. India has to be careful to ensure that polarisation along communal lines does not lead to a situation where India’s current image as a bastion of democratic virtues is sullied.
India’s well-earned reputation for holding peaceful elections, notwithstanding the odds, calls for far greater vigilance. Peace cannot be taken for granted. The truth is that India faces many threats, quite a few of which have remained dormant for some time now, but which have not been eliminated. Beginning with the Manipur cauldron to the latest communal violence in Nuh, apart from the intrinsic threat of right-wing terror and Naxalite violence, there exists a broad band of incipient problems that could coalesce into something more frightening. Hence, the political establishment and security and police agencies need to exercise utmost care and caution. While eternal vigilance is the price of liberty, eternal vigilance is also needed to ensure that the world’s largest democracy successfully concludes yet another general election. Only this will demonstrate India’s true strength and worth.
M.K. Narayanan is a former Director, Intelligence Bureau, a former National Security Adviser, and a former Governor of West Bengal
