PUSHED FOR MONEY
Prime Minister Anthony Albanese says the government’s position on the stage three tax cuts hasn’t changed. Asked if it will, he replied that it hasn’t changed. Asked if he’s ruling out any changes, he said there’s a budget in a couple of weeks and the position hasn’t changed. Someone’s sticking to their media briefing notes. Perhaps more tellingly, the SMH says the cuts have been debated inside the expenditure review committee of the federal cabinet but, crucially, not in a full meeting of federal cabinet — and that’s where the big policy decisions are made. Resources Minister Madeleine King told Sky News on Thursday there were no plans to change the stage three tax cuts “right now” which is equally as vague. Despite a growing chorus of people pointing out the $243 billion tax break was economically dodgy, Opposition Leader Peter Dutton is trying to make it about trust. He claimed Albo was on “the cusp of betraying [Australians]” with a cuts rethink.
Speaking of budget blowouts, big defence projects are running a combined $6.5 billion over budget and a cumulative 97 years late, The Australian ($) reports. It’s according to analysis that Defence Minister Richard Marles will drop today, with the Coalition’s “chaotic” handling in the portfolio to blame. Marles will introduce an independent projects office to more closely scrutinise things, Guardian Australia continues, and also a new culture in the Defence department that encourages people to come forward with problems. Our defence budget was $48.6 billion in the March budget (2.2% of our GDP) and is on the way up, expected to hit $80 billion, the Oz ($) adds. What’s worse is that doesn’t count the money for our controversial fleet of nuclear submarines. Yikes.
RAIN REIGNS
The roads of NSW are “very dangerous”, the SES commissioner has warned, with flash flooding and rivers yet to peak in the deluge the state is copping, the SMH reports. The emergency service did 21 flood rescues overnight, with the South Coast, Central Coast and mid-North Coast getting the brunt. There’ll be improved weather in the next couple of days, but there’s another front expected to sweep through NSW on Wednesday through to Friday. The reason for the rain is simple, the Bureau of Meteorology says: climate change. Meanwhile, two Extinction Rebellion protesters superglued their hands to a Picasso painting in Melbourne and chanted “Stop coal, stop gas, stop oil, stop logging”, Guardian Australia reports. The painting was not damaged — it had perspex glazing — and the hands were pried off the surface with acetone. The pair were arrested but released without charge.
Energy and Climate Change Minister Chris Bowen will say today that international carbon credit trading is “several years away”, the AFR reports, putting Australia’s biggest carbon emitters on notice in a major blow. They’ve been lobbying the government for international offsets, but the government has maintained it would happen only in extraordinary circumstances. It comes as the boss of one of Australia’s biggest gas producers has told a London audience that we need to invest in new oil and gas more, The Age reports. The Santos chief reckons the call to end fossil fuel reliance is only adding to the problem, “as that’s only going to delay decarbonisation. The future must be about decarbonisation, not de-fossilisation.” Once upon a time, liquified natural gas (LNG) was seen as a great transitional fuel, because it has lower emissions than coal but uses a similar infrastructure. That time has passed. In July, the UN said “nothing could be more clear or present than the danger of fossil fuel expansion”, Guardian Australia reports, while the peer-reviewed science of the IPCC report, endorsed by nearly 200 national governments, concluded the same. LNG releases highly potent methane when we extract, profess and ship it, and plus — “the biggest user of gas in Australia is the LNG industry itself”.
COVID BOOSTER FROM MODERNA
Moderna’s Omicron COVID-19 booster will start going into arms today, the ABC reports. It’s the first combination COVID booster in our vaccine program, made up of vaccines for the original virus and the potent subvariant. We’re not the first to do so — combo boosters are being used in the UK, Switzerland, Canada, EU and the US. You can get it if you’re over 18 and if it’s been three months or longer since your most recent vaccine or infection. But it’s not supposed to replace the primary dose vaccines — the first two we got, or first three if you are severely immunocompromised. It comes as the surging cost of living and financial stress have overtaken the pandemic as the main causes of anxiety among Australians, the SMH reports. High inflation and the war in Ukraine have both created a “general sense of unease” in us, according to a national survey of 1500 people by Beyond Blue. We’re actually more mentally ill than before the pandemic right now, it found, but we’re generally not as worried about getting COVID. The cost of groceries and the cost of petrol, on the other hand, is really stressing us out.
Meanwhile Victoria’s COVID pandemic declaration will end on Wednesday night, the ABC reports. The declaration allowed the government to enforce health measures like quarantine — it was already due to expire on Wednesday (October 12), with the mandatory isolation period to end for Victorians on Thursday. It’ll end nationally on Friday. The number of reported cases has dropped substantially in Victoria, from a peak of 71,428 cases on July 23 to 7415 on Friday — but it’s likely people aren’t seeking tests as much anymore.
ON A LIGHTER NOTE
Sometimes, during the night shifts at a not-for-profit organisation, Michael and his colleague would sit together, chatting quietly and smoking cigarettes. The conversation between the two New Zealander men flowed easy. They’d worked together for 20 years in community outreach, and a strong friendship had long replaced collegial chatter — they’d often be “dreaming and talking and laughing” into the night, as he tells the NZ Herald. One evening, one of them mentioned someone who had won Lotto. Marvelling at that luck, the pair jovially agreed that they’d split the money if either ever won anything. Fast forward to 2015, and Michael’s life was in turmoil. He was living with his two adult kids and had just suffered a terrible personal loss while trying to make ends meet. “We never had money, not enough to really value it,” he says. One evening, nestled on his couch, he watched the colourful Lotto balls roll out of the machine on the TV. “Oh,” he remarked to nobody, “I’ve won something here.”
He called his daughter in, who dubiously surveyed his numbers. A lot of elated screaming filled the room, and then some tears. Pack your bags, Michael told his dumbfounded kids — we’re going to Auckland. The trio enjoyed a weekend away, including a joyful trip to Lotto headquarters to confirm the win. “We were all able to enjoy ourselves and take a breath,” he says. And there was plenty left over — his total winnings were $15 million, after all. Michael surprised each of his siblings with a quarter of a million in a “secret Santa” game, and set up his children as well. Some time passed, and Michael’s friend was in the midst of “a lot of challenges, job-wise and health-wise” so Michael, true to his word, gave him half — some $7.5 million. “I’ve never had a second of regret,” he says. “It was the right thing to do.” These days, Michael (not his real name) says he’s just grateful to lie in a nice bed in a home he owns. “A house is huge,” he says. He’s continued his not-for-profit work, quietly investing some of his winnings into it. “To still be a part of that community is a privilege,” he says. “To make a difference, especially for tamariki and rangatahi, is really cool.”
Hoping you believe in the good in the world today.
SAY WHAT?
The Labor Party supported the [stage three tax cuts] legislation in the Parliament and the Australian prime minister promised at the last election on multiple occasions he wouldn’t step back from it and it seems he is still contemplating that some time between now and the next election, and I think that would be an unforgivable and ridiculous mistake.
Peter Dutton
It’s curious that the opposition leader was not as upset about the Coalition’s broken election promises, including a federal ICAC, a national strategy for electric cars, a budget surplus, 47 commuter car parks, and a billion new trees. Dutton’s comments come as Prime Minister Anthony Albanese repeatedly said his government’s position on the stage three tax cuts had not changed.
CRIKEY RECAP
One Nation, Australian Christian Lobby listed as hate groups by global extremism think tank
“Pauline Hanson’s One Nation Party is listed because of its anti-immigrant, anti-Muslim, white nationalist and conspiracy ideology. The report refers to the party’s representatives’ public comments, going back to Pauline Hanson’s comments in a Queensland Times letter about Indigenous peoples that led to her disendorsement from the Liberal Party, all the way to recent misinformation and attacks on vaccines.
“The Australian Christian Lobby (ACL) is also included in the report for its anti-LGBTIQA+ ideology. The authors cite the group’s opposition to same-sex marriage, LGBTIQA+ surrogacy and adoption rights, and its increasing attacks on the trans community. The report also includes Australian anti-trans groups Binary and LGB Alliance Australia.”
Why we’ll never see the likes of Tony Abbott again
“The ironies encase the man. He will probably live to 100 because every time he had to do something boring — like read and master a policy document — he’d jump on his bike and ride 130 kilometres. During all those decades, he’ll get to contemplate whether he would now still be prime minister had he read those damn briefs.
“The return of the right is for Abbott the return of Tony. He has a Churchill narrative in his head that there will be a time of crisis when he is called back to the despatch box, and the ghastly comic failure of his premiership will then become mere prelude, a man ahead of his time. But Churchill had been a soldier, a commander, he ran the British Navy, was chancellor of the greatest empire in the world and was a brutal class warrior in the era of great class struggle.”
The honeymoon is over, baby: calling time on Albanese’s popularity… again and again
“You can’t really blame political journalists for wanting to get back to real politics. It’s boring to write about popular prime ministers and steady-as-she-goes management as ministers get their feet under the desk. We became accustomed to the Morrison government, which rolled out a bungle, a lie or a major scandal every other day, in an extended high-tempo period of incompetence unmatched since, well, the Abbott years.
“A government that wants to take its time and try to get things right, or which is stolidly committed to carrying out its election commitments, is no fun at all. That’s why the debate over the stage three tax cuts is so exciting, with headlines about Labor being divided and plans being prepared for abandoning the handouts to the wealthiest. At last — we’re back to governments breaking promises and misleading voters!”
READ ALL ABOUT IT
A petrol station explosion has killed 10 people in Ireland. Here’s what we know so far (SBS)
Russia missile strikes in Zaporizhzhia kill 13 (Reuters)
Austrian president secures second term, election forecast shows (EuroNews)
Stung by criticism, Trudeau government changes course on Iran (CBC)
Paris cuts the lights to save energy. Will it help? (The Wall Street Journal) ($)
North Korea fires two missiles after US-South Korea drills (Al Jazeera)
Crimea bridge: Russia ramps up security after blast (BBC)
THE COMMENTARIAT
Albanese will pay the price if Chalmers eliminates tax cuts — Cameron Milner (The Australian) ($): “The only person that changes to legislated stage three tax cuts ultimately damage is Anthony Albanese. His treasurer is laying out his own moral high ground — ‘economy before politics’ — defence already. Albo was the one on the record constantly making equivalent statements to Paul Keating’s L-A-W tax cuts. He was the one who flipped the Labor cabinet from not supporting them to voting them into legislation after the 2019 election. He was the one who confirmed his commitment to keep them as recently as May. Albanese, if he breaks his word, will be regarded by many as just another lying politician. The trust he has established will be shattered permanently. He needs to hold true and keep the trust with the electorate by reaffirming his commitment to stage three in full.
“That the treasurer’s October 25 budget could inflict untold damage on the prime minister’s trust with the electorate is even more understandable after the treasurer was confirmed in the AFR’s power list, compiled by lobbyists and journos seeking favour, as the second-most powerful person in Australia, ahead of Richard Marles and Penny Wong and behind only Albanese. The treasurer knows that to change the law will require his prime minister to vote down his own electoral promise. Everyone in Labor knows all too well what happened to Julia Gillard when she reneged on a carbon tax; Albo did the numbers for the return of Kevin Rudd and Labor lost the next election.”
We can’t afford to lose our nerve in the race to net zero — Michael Rath, Sandra James (AFR) ($): “We estimate that the economic benefits from the transition to net zero could add $890 billion to our economy over the next 50 years, although the cumulative social and economic benefits of becoming a superpower in this field would be far greater. Achieving this will take committed leadership because as we stand at the precipice of the largest and most necessary economic shifts of our lifetimes, headwinds have emerged. The Ukraine crisis has caused energy prices to spike which, combined with a rising cost of living, is threatening to tip much of the world into recession.
“The temptation for our leaders will be to scale back investment in clean energy while relying on more familiar (and dirtier) energy sources. But we can’t afford this in the long run. Government and business must hold their nerve and push on. To do this, they must overcome three central challenges. The first is maintaining our commitment to the transition and keeping expectations high. We can’t allow the thinking to arise that we can walk back our commitments when times get tough, because a changing climate is already impacting on our living standards. Minimising the long-term damage to the environment is a universal responsibility. The second will be managing this message to consumers, investors and communities amid the impact of these changes. The truth is that our electricity system will have to do most of the heavy lifting when it comes to hitting our targets. Not only does it produce 61% of emissions, but it is also critical to all economic activity with interdependencies that are far-reaching across all sectors.”
HOLD THE FRONT PAGE
WHAT’S ON TODAY
Eora Nation Country (also known as Sydney)
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Climate Change and Energy Minister Chris Bowen, Greens Leader Adam Bandt, NSW Energy Minister Matt Kean and more will speak to The Australian Financial Review Energy and Climate Summit today and tomorrow at the Fullerton Hotel and online.
Yuggera Country (also known as Brisbane)
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Radio personality Myf Warhurst will sign copies of her new book, Time of My Life, at Avid Reader bookshop.
Ngunnawal Country (also known as Canberra)
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Ukrainian ambassador to Australia Vasyl Myroshnychenko will speak about democracy at the Australian National University.
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Former UK Supreme Court justice Jonathan Sumption will give an address to the National Press Club on “What is going on in the United Kingdom?”.
