Saudi Arabia has expressed its willingness to mediate between the Trump administration and Iran in an effort to negotiate a new deal aimed at curbing Tehran's nuclear program. The kingdom's concerns stem from the belief that Iran may now be more inclined to pursue a nuclear weapon following the weakening of its regional proxies, which have historically served as a deterrent against Israeli attacks.
Saudi Arabia is looking to leverage its close relationship with President Donald Trump to facilitate diplomatic dialogue between Iran and the United States. While it remains unclear if a formal offer has been made, this move underscores Riyadh's desire to strengthen its improved relations with Iran and play a role in potential negotiations for a new agreement.
President Trump has expressed his interest in engaging in talks for a new deal, but Iran's response has been mixed. Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei recently stated that discussions with the US were not advisable. Both the US State Department and the Saudi foreign ministry have refrained from commenting on the matter, while Iran's mission to the United Nations in New York has also remained silent.
Saudi Arabia publicly welcomed the 2015 nuclear agreement between Iran and world powers but privately harbored concerns over the Obama administration's failure to address issues related to Tehran's regional activities, including its missile program and support for proxy groups across the Middle East. The kingdom later supported Trump's decision to withdraw from the deal in 2018.
Following a drone and missile attack on Saudi oil facilities a year after the US withdrawal from the nuclear agreement, tensions between Saudi Arabia and Iran have eased significantly. In March 2023, the two countries announced a surprise agreement to normalize relations, brokered by China. Saudi officials view this development as a major success, as it has led to a cessation of Houthi attacks on Saudi territory and a reduction in regional hostilities.
With Iran's influence in the region waning due to various factors, including Israeli actions targeting Iran-allied groups and the fall of the Assad regime in Syria, Saudi Arabia sees an opportunity to de-escalate tensions and improve relations with its neighbor. Riyadh aims to prevent further regional instability and views a new nuclear agreement as a means to deter Iran from pursuing nuclear weapons.
While President Trump has expressed his desire for a new deal with Iran, signals from Tehran have been mixed. Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian faces domestic pressure to address economic challenges exacerbated by US sanctions. Despite statements indicating a willingness to engage in dialogue with the US, Iranian leaders have expressed skepticism about Trump's sincerity in seeking a new nuclear agreement.
Experts suggest that Saudi Arabia's offer to mediate between the US and Iran allows the kingdom to distance itself from Trump's aggressive stance towards Tehran. However, given the historical lack of trust between Saudi Arabia and Iran, it is unlikely that this mediation effort will progress beyond diplomatic gestures.
As Saudi Arabia navigates its relationship with Trump and Iran, the kingdom's influence on regional dynamics is expected to grow. Despite potential challenges, Saudi Arabia remains committed to promoting stability in the Middle East and advancing its economic interests through diplomatic engagement.
