It’s been quite the offseason for running backs.
Several of the league’s best bell cows, including Saquon Barkley, Jonathan Taylor, and Josh Jacobs all remain without long-term contracts, which has triggered a movement across the league of running backs banding together to get the money they feel they deserve. This included a Zoom call led by Chargers running back Austin Ekeler, who himself is playing on the final year of his rookie deal, and at one point this offseason requested a trade out of Los Angeles.
While Barkley has been the loudest of the running backs proclaiming their frustrations, he signed a one-year contract worth just over $10 million with several incentives. Those incentives include an additional $303,000 if Barkley rushes for 1,350 yards and the Giants make the playoffs, 11 total touchdowns and a playoff berth, and 65 receptions and a playoff berth. If all incentives are met, Barkley can make a maximum of $11 million.
This, more than anything, is a grim look at where the future of running back contracts is heading- short-term, incentive-filled deals.
Running back spending
If we take a look at the teams who currently spend the most on running backs, there is a clear pattern. Per Spotrac, the top 10 teams in running back spending are as follows:
- Tennessee Titans
- Las Vegas Raiders
- Cleveland Browns
- New York Giants
- San Francisco 49ers
- Los Angeles Chargers
- New Orleans Saints
- Dallas Cowboys
- Green Bay Packers
- Atlanta Falcons
Of those 10 teams, only four made the playoffs in 2022, and only two of those teams drafted the running back who was the focal point of their offense. To add onto this, only three of these teams have appeared in a conference championship game in the last four seasons, and none have won a Super Bowl.
To contrast, of the five teams who spend the least amount on running backs, four have won Super Bowls in the last six years (Chiefs,
Buccaneers, Rams, Patriots). When you look at Derrick Henry, Nick Chubb, and Josh Jacobs, there is no denying their talent. However, their talent alone hasn’t led to winning meaningful football games.
Related: The NFL’s running back problem, and how to fix it
Current handling of second contracts for running backs
Barkley isn’t the only running back to sign a one-year contract this offseason. Bengals running back Joe Mixon also signed a short-term contract. His deal was for two years worth $11.5 million. Similar to Barkley, Mixon has a low average annual salary with heavy incentives to earn him more money.
With the way the league is going, this is the grim future for running backs. The current calculated market value for the position is roughly $12.6 million per year, per Spotrac. To give a real-world example, the 4 year, $50 million extension Bears tight end Cole Kmet just signed is the current estimated market value for a running back. If Kmet were a running back, he would be the third-highest paid player at the position. In comparison to the rest of the league, that contract would be the 162nd richest in the NFL.
Especially when discussing players like Dalvin Cook, a five-year contract is highly unlikely. His best years are likely behind him, and whomever signs him will give him an extended quote unquote “prove it” deal- a two-three year contract with a team option before the final season of the deal with a lower than market-value base pay and incentives based on performance. The league has seen too many situations like Le’Veon Bell or Todd Gurley to willingly cough up big money to running backs who have a lot of tread on their tires.
Until the negotiation of a new CBA in 2030, this is the new reality for NFL running backs.
