Saquon Barkley has been one of the top running backs in fantasy football since he made his NFL debut in 2018. That season, he posted 91 catches, 2,028 scrimmage yards, 15 touchdowns and 385.8 fantasy points.
That was good enough to finish first at the position.
Since then, Barkley’s fantasy value has been a roller coaster ride. He missed 20 combined games over the next three years before bouncing back in 2022, when he had 284 fantasy points and finished as the RB5. Last season, Barkley missed three games but still ranked as the RB13 based on total points and RB9 on a points-per game basis. That’s pretty good, especially when you consider how bad the Giants offense (and offensive line) performed.
So, when Barkley signed a massive deal with the Philadelphia Eagles in the offseason, you can imagine the excitement of fantasy managers. In fact, he holds an average draft position (ADP) of 13.4 at the NFFC (National Fantasy Football Championships) website this month. Still, there are some people out there who are worried about Barkley’s fantasy value in the Eagles offense.
My question is: why?
Saquon Barkley's 2024 Fantasy Outlook
That concern can probably be answered in two words: Tush Push. Fantasy managers are concerned that the Eagles will keep the ball in the hands of quarterback Jalen Hurts down near the goal line, which of course would have a negative effect on Barkley’s touchdown opportunities.
I’m looking at the bigger picture, however, and that picture is painted with a lot of positives. The biggest one might be the upgrade at offensive line, as Barkley goes from the third-worst run-blocking offensive line in New York based on PFF ratings, to the Eagles’ third-best running-blocking line.
That should help Barkley’s yards per rush average, which dropped from 4.5 in 2022 to 3.9 last season. He still tied for seventh in yards after contact, however, finished tied for 10th in explosive runs and tied for 14th in red zone looks.
Also, keep in mind that the Eagles lead running back has averaged a combined five yards per rush attempt since 2021. That includes Miles Sanders, who was the RB15 and averaged 4.9 yards per rush in 2022. When he left the Eagles as a free agent in 2023, Sanders averaged a very gross 3.4 with the Carolina Panthers.
Obviously, there’s a good chance that Barkley’s YPC average improves.
Also keep in mind that the Eagles offense was tied for fourth in the most goal-to-go plays (inside the opponent’s 10-yard line) last season. Hurts scored 13 of his 15 touchdowns on the ground in a goal-to-go situation. By comparison, the Giants were fifth from last in goal-to-go plays. Still, Barkley scored seven touchdowns on their 20 goal-to-go snaps. And that was in New York.
Aside from durability (Barkley has missed 23 games in the last five years), I don’t have any issues with drafting him in the top 15 in fantasy drafts. Could the “tush push” affect him? Sure. But does that preclude him from seeing an increase in scrimmage yards (he had just 1,242 last season)? Not to me. Heck, D’Andre Swift had more (1,263) with the Eagles! I can also see him getting into double digits in the touchdown department in this offense.
I also think that since the Eagles now have Barkley, who can be effective near the goal line, they won’t automatically only give Hurts the ball inside the opponent’s five yards line. And, there’s no guarantee that the Eagles will again lead the NFL in rushing touchdown success rate from the one-yard line.
Last season, no team was better (85%) in that category.
So, if you’re fearing a major Barkley collapse in touchdown production, don’t. He’s in a much better situation overall than he has been in over the last few years, and playing in what should remain a productive Eagles offense makes him a no-brainer RB1 in drafts. Believe me now, thank me later.
Now that you know what you need to know about Barkley, you still have the rest of your fantasy football draft prep to get to. Be sure to check out the SI Fantasy 2024 draft kit, which is loaded with everything you need to know before draft day.
This article was originally published on www.si.com as Saquon Barkley Remains a High-End RB in 2024 Fantasy Football Drafts.
