San Diego State vs. #15 Boise State: Game Preview, How To Watch, Odds, Keys, Prediction
Can the Aztecs find a way to defeat Boise State on the road? It is improbable- but the Aztecs are improving each and every week.
Let Danny Dimes do his job by protecting the pocket, and the Aztecs might just surprise everybody.
WEEK 9: SDSU Aztecs (3-4, 2-0 MW) vs. Boise State Broncos (6-1, 3-0 MW)
WHEN: Friday, November 1st, 2024— 5:00 PM PST / 8:00 PM EST
WHERE: Albertsons Stadium, Boise, Idaho (36,363)
TV: FS1
STREAMING: FoxSportsGo
RADIO: San Diego Sports 760
SERIES RECORD: This is the tenth match between both teams with the Broncos holding a 5-4 lead in the series.
LAST MATCHUP: September 22, 2023 – Boise State won 34-31 at Snapdragon Stadium in San Diego, CA.
WEBSITES: GoAztecs.com, the official San Diego State athletics website; Broncosports.com, the official Boise State athletics website.
ODDS: SDSU +23.5
OVER/UNDER: 57.5
Boise, ID – On Friday evening, November 1st, Spencer Danielson and the formidable #15 Boise State Broncos (6-1) host coach Sean Lewis’s work-in-progress SDSU Aztecs (3-4). This game is worth a watch, because the Broncos are playing far stronger than they have in many years, and the Aztecs’ handling of this match will truly test SDSU in their new era.
SDSU barely fell to Washington State last week in a 29-26 defeat. The Aztecs led 26-14 after a touchdown early in the fourth quarter before Cougars quarterback John Mateer shifted gears and took the game over. RB Marquez Cooper rushed 18 times for 78 yards and 2 TDs. The Aztecs definitely gave the Cougars a big scare, and they illustrated that they have the genuine ability to beat formidable opponents.
No. 15 Boise State is coming off a 29-24 victory over UNLV. RB Ashton Jeanty rushed 33 times for 128 yards and a TD. It covered as a 4-point favorite in what was its 5th win in a row. The only strike on its record is a 37-34 loss to Oregon as an 18-point underdog.
Last week, despite their loss, the Aztecs did considerably better than all sports prognosticators had expected, and the Broncos eked out a win instead of defeating the Rebels decisively as they have against most other opponents. All of this suggests that Friday’s match could be closer than expected.
Let’s take a closer look at what it will take for the Aztecs to win.
Keys to a San Diego State Victory
1. AVOID the first-possession FACE-PUNCH
As a prediction, the Broncos will attempt to brutally steamroll the Aztecs right out of the box during the very first possession, to let SDSU know who’s in charge. This will set the tone for the entire game. If the Aztecs can manage to push back hard, limiting the Broncos’ initial effectiveness on the first drive, it will set a different tone, while giving SDSU a sense that this game’s outcome isn’t entirely predetermined.
2. PROTECT the pocket
True freshman starting quarterback Danny O’Neil has completed 109 of 174 passes (62.6%) for 1,240 yards this season thus far, producing 6 touchdowns. He has shown he can perform well in challenging situations. When he gets into a rhythm, he can deploy a formidable air assault. Protecting the pocket around O’Neil will give him a window to drop the dime on receivers to consistently move the chains. Boise State defense will be fierce, so the Aztec O-line will have to dig in to protect Danny. Let Danny Dimes do his job by protecting the pocket, and he might just surprise everybody.
Marquez Cooper, one of the nation’s top running backs, will be a Boise State target, especially considering the Broncos will be looking to show SDSU that Boise State should be the run game king- at least in the Ashton Jeanty era. Because of it, SDSU should mix things up in this game, using Cooper as a decoy while letting Cam Davis pick up serious yardage. Just when the Broncos realize the fact, then SDSU should revert to Cooper.
3. MUCK UP JEANTY at every turn
Heisman Trophy Candidate Ashton Jeanty is a military-grade 5’9″, 215-lb powerhouse. On 159 carries, he has rushed for 1,376 yards so far on the season, producing 18 touchdowns. He averages an amazing 8.7 yards per carry. As an added complication he is very faith-based, so God is his copilot. His standing ready position is often imitated, but the results are not duplicated. The Aztecs have a tall order containing Jeanty, so they must come up with countermeasures to ensure he performs far below his normal production. How this is managed, whether through double teaming him or other means- it will be a tall order for SDSU Defensive Coordinator Eric Schmidt.
4. FRENETIC DOWNHILL DEFENSE
5. LIMIT THE PENALTIES
The Aztecs will lose games if they don’t play with discipline. Penalties have already cost SDSU wins this season.
