Let me preface this by saying the Eagles have a good team. You don’t go 14-3 and reach the Super Bowl by accident.
But how good?
The schedule has kept the Eagles’ top-ranked defense as a bit of an enigma. Sure, Philadelphia allowed the fewest yards per play (and fewest passing yards) in football. Also, not an accident.
But they should have. Or at least they had the easiest path to pacing the NFL.
The Eagles played against only two offenses that rank among the top-nine in Football Outsiders’ offensive DVOA metric — the Lions and the Jaguars. Those are the two best offenses the Eagles have played all season, and they played them both in the opening month. Which means since Week 4, the Eagles have not played an offense among the top-quarter of the league.
Having said all that, you can only beat who you play, and the Eagles not only beat bad offenses, but beat up on bad offenses.
Their 70 sacks were 15 more than the Chiefs, who totaled the second most in the NFL. The Eagles allowed only 179.8 passing yards per game.
In other words, it’s a tough matchup for Patrick Mahomes — and the Vegas oddsmakers are following suit. For the first time in Mahomes’ career, he is set to enter a playoff game as an underdog. The Eagles are favored by 1 1/2 points Sunday in Super Bowl LVII in Glendale, Ariz.
A tough matchup for Mahomes.
But the Eagles haven’t faced anyone quite like him, either. Or in the same ballpark.
Add to that, the Chiefs have fared well against the best defenses they’ve played this season. It’s prompted Andy Reid’s very best game-planning.
And I’m inclined to think the two-week break has favored the best game-planner. But I’m also inclined to believe Eagles coach Nick Sirianni will look for every edge he can find during the game, because that’s what he’s been doing all year. He is the most aggressive coach in football — the Eagles have totaled more points on drives that entailed fourth-down conversions than any team in football.
The Eagles ranked fourth on fourth-down attempts, and the top of that list is typically the teams that trail in games. They did not trail often. The Chiefs, by comparison, had the second fewest fourth-down attempts this season.
While nobody in the history of this sport has been more successful at erasing deficits than Patrick Mahomes, it does have the feel of a game in which the first half will mean a bit more than most. The Eagles are most comfortable running the ball — they have the best rushing offense in the league, and that’s even when you subtract Jalen Hurts from the equation. (The Eagles will not be subtracting Jalen Hurts from the equation, by the way.) It’s easier to run the ball when you are playing with the lead. If the Chiefs can get an early two-possession lead and make Hurts throw, it should lead to a different game.
The oddity of those two scenarios is that while I think this is a tight matchup — as do the oddsdmakers — that doesn’t necessarily mean it will be a close score at the finish. Those scenarios could lead to one team getting out of its comfort zone and the other pulling away after halftime.
— The line: Eagles 1.5
— The pick: Chiefs 27, Eagles 20
— Record against the spread this year: 8-11
PLUS THREE
— 1. Kadarius Toney, over 34.5 total yards
Kardarius Toney is in line to play Sunday after leaving the Bengals game early with an injury. While we can’t be assured of his limitations, or lack thereof, we can be assured he will neatly fit into Reid’s scheme if he’s healthy.
The Eagles have the best pass rush in football, and that’s not merely because of their total sack numbers. Reid has often tried to use that against teams in the past — think the 49ers — by running jet sweeps to the edges. Mecole Hardman has been a common beneficiary, but an injury will prevent him from playing. That leaves Toney as the guy.
— 2. Isiah Pacheco, over 47.5 rushing yards
On the surface, it might seem like an against-the-grain selection, given everything I just said about the Eagles defensive line.
But that group has not been nearly as effective against the run, and in one type of run in particular. As Next Gen Stats calculates, the Eagles are susceptible to runs outside the tackles, and Pacheco has turned in the league’s second-best performances on those exact play calls.
— 3. Travis Kelce, 6.5 more receiving yards than Jason Kelce snaps
Look, it’s a Super Bowl, a game in which you can bet on just about anything, so I have to include at least one somewhat outside-the-box pick.
But this is as far as I’ll go.
The wager is that Travis Kelce will have at least 6.5 more receiving yards than the amount of snaps Jason Kelce plays in the game.
Jason Kelce is usually in the high 60s, and he’s topped out at 82 this season.
Travis has been a monster in the playoffs, totaling at least 78 receiving yards in eight straight postseason appearances.
— Prop bet record this year: 29-26
