KANSAS CITY, Mo. — We’ve mentioned frequently that one of Patrick Mahomes underlying talents is to take a slight, real or perceived, and turn it into ammunition.
But he’s never gotten that ammunition from this source.
The oddsmakers in Las Vegas.
For the first time in his career, Patrick Mahomes will be an underdog on his home field. The Bills are 2 1/2-point favorites Sunday in a game that some of us envision as a prelude for a January playoff rematch.
“It kind of is what it is,” Mahomes said. “Our job is to go out there and find a way to win a football game. It’s a tough place to play at. They’ve won here before, but we’ve also handled business before so it’s going to be up to us to go out there and handle business when it comes on Sunday.”
Last year’s playoff meeting — the renowned 13-second drive and all — provides the hype for this Week 6 date. But only part of it.
It’s already evident the Bills and Chiefs are the two best teams in the AFC, though they implemented different offseason plans to arrive here. The Chiefs have their eyes on building for the long-term future, extending a championship window, and the Bills have pushed their chips to the center of the tale in 2022.
It’s worked, too. Statistically, the Bills are the best team in football, and as much as the focus sticks with quarterback Josh Allen, did you know the defense is actually performing even better than the offense? Using their all-encompassing DVOA metric, Football Outsiders rates the Bills defense as the second best in the league.
That’s the edge that sways my pick this week.
— The line: Bills -2 1/2
— The pick: Bills 31, Chiefs 24
— Last week’s pick: Chiefs -7
— My record against the spread this year: 3-2
PLUS THREE
— 1. Patrick Mahomes, under 296.5 yards
That’s a large number — a number that Mahomes has not reached since the season opener in Arizona, by the way.
The oddsmakers are accounting for a potential shootout — for Mahomes to need to throw the ball later in games than he has recently. But the Bills have allowed only 182.6 passing yards per game. Sure, facing rookie Kenny Pickett a week ago isn’t an indicator for facing Mahomes on Sunday, but there’s reason to think that secondary is a tough matchup.
Really, though, the impetus for this pick all returns to the top: 296.5 is just a really higher number.
— 2. Marquez Valdes-Scantling, over 45.5 receiving yards
Having said all that, I do see some signs that Mahomes and Valdes-Scantling are developing more chemistry with each passing week. And it’s showing up, too. Valdes-Scantling has increased his yardage every week since Week 2. He’s averaging 67 yards per game over the last three weeks. He has a tougher matchup against the Bills, no doubt, but there’s some cushion to work with.
— 3. Clyde Edwards-Helaire, under 9.5 rush attempts
In five games this year, Edwards-Helaire has had double-digit carries only once, and this isn’t the matchup to suddenly increase the workload. The Bills have allowed the second fewest rushing yards in the NFL, and only give up 3.47 yards per carry.
Jerick McKinnon is also coming off his most productive game of the year and could cut deeper into Edwards-Helaire’s snaps this week.
— Prop bet record last week: 2-1
— Prop bet record this season: 8-7
