The Carolina Panthers are making a change at quarterback. Baker Mayfield and PJ Walker, the two players who’ve combined to start the team’s 10 games so far in 2022, will remain on the bench in Week 12. Sam Darnold, a former top three draft pick and current football disaster, will take the reins of the offense for a showdown with the 3-7 Denver Broncos.
It will not matter.
The Panthers quarterback room has known nothing but failure this fall. Mayfield is currently the league’s least efficient player by a wide margin. Walker is more or less the same kind of bad, only more mobile. Now Darnold gets the chance to clear an incredibly low bar simply because he’s a warm body who happens to be under contract in Charlotte.
History suggests this will not end well. Darnold was arguably worse than Mayfield in his 12 games as a Panther last season. He threw 13 interceptions against only nine touchdowns and had the worst year of his career — which is saying A LOT for a guy the New York Jets set adrift in favor of Zach Wilson. He is not going to turn things around for the Panthers, he’s merely going to give the Broncos someone new to intercept in double-coverage.
For reference, here’s where Darnold stood in 2021 according to the NFL’s expected points added (EPA) and completion percentage over expected (CPOE) advanced stats:
And here’s where Mayfield and Walker stand through 11 weeks of 2022:
Statistically, three of the four worst quarterback performances since 2021 belong to Carolina quarterbacks. And those are the three guys sharing snaps for the Panthers in 2022. The second-worst player from ’21 is ascending to take over from the worst-worst player of ’22 and his backup, the second-worst player of ’22.
This is all to say Darnold may in fact be the best option and that it will not make a difference. This isn’t a tryout for 2023; Darnold’s contract (and Mayfield’s and Walker’s) mercifully expires at the end of the season. Winning only takes this team further from the top five draft pick it needs to develop a new, non-retread quarterback to take the reins.
But throwing Darnold into the fire could fill a few more seats in his season debut for fans in desperate need of something — anything — to cheer for. More importantly, keeping Mayfield out of the starting lineup means the pick the Panthers sent to Cleveland will be a fifth-rounder instead of a fourth-round selection per the conditions of that deal.
So, yeah. Sam Darnold. That’s where the Panthers are at right now. If past results are any indication of future performance, Carolina’s quarterback position will remain roughly as horrible as it’s been all season.
