Don’t lose, absolutely do not concede first and try to keep your heads above water until Tottenham Hotspur visit. Sam Allardyce has cut through the speculation and algorithms with the clearest do-or-die verdict on how Leeds United stay in the Premier League.
The Whites are second from bottom in the table and two points from safety with nine still to play for against the league’s third, 15th and sixth-placed clubs. With more than 90 per cent of the season behind them, Leeds cannot wait much longer to start picking up the points which save them from relegation.
Saturday’s clash with Newcastle United may represent the sternest of the three tests remaining, but Allardyce sees little margin for error. With Elland Road at their backs and an uninterrupted week behind them, avoiding defeat is essential.
“It's been helpful (a clear week),” said Allardyce. “I suppose when I looked at it and thought, Man City, Newcastle, West Ham [United], Tottenham, that's not going to be easy, but at least it had one week free every week to try and help them get better and better as each game comes around.
“The biggest thing that can happen to us is not lose because at least we get a point on the board. If we got three, then I’m 40 or 50 per cent thinking we could stay safe now.”
As they play before their rivals this weekend, three points would take the Whites up to 16th, while a draw would keep them in the drop zone at 18th. While Allardyce was virtually laying down an ultimatum for the squad, he conceded it would not be over if the Magpies did, as the bookmakers expect, take all three points.
“Well, it won't be over,” he said. “That would mean we go into two games and need two wins. Even then that might not be enough.
“To give ourselves the best chance we’ve got to try and get a point on the board, but more importantly, three if we can.”
The last time Leeds won a game they did it by coming from behind. On what was another tense night at Elland Road, Nottingham Forest took a 12th-minute lead before the hosts fought back to win 2-1.
Since then, the Whites have taken one point from an available 18 and Allardyce is worried nerves could jangle if Newcastle were to score the first, all-important goal on Saturday. What he is not concerned about is the kind of collapse synonymous with Leeds under Javi Gracia, Jesse Marsch and Marcelo Bielsa since February 2022.
“If we don’t get the ball right we won’t create as many chances as we’d like to put Newcastle under pressure and to hopefully have something to go forward with because I'd like to score the first goal if possible,” he said. “That’s very important for us on Saturday.
“Getting the first goal would be a big lift. It would help us win the game. I’m not saying we would win the game, but going a goal down would be a very difficult job, mentally, for the players to come back from.
“If that's the case they’d have to try and do it. What they won’t have to do is go daft, like they have done before, leave the back door open and concede two, three and four again.”
However it may play out at Saturday lunchtime, Allardyce just wants to see his players giving themselves that chance to save themselves on the final day, as they did 12 months earlier.
“We won’t stay up with 30 points,” he said. “Nobody's ever going to do it. We've got nine points to go for. We know if we get nine points, which is a massive ask, we’ll stay up.
“If we get six we might do. What are we going to be? I have to say at this moment in time, I want to be still in it when we play Tottenham, that's what I want to be.
“I’d be very satisfied if when we play Tottenham we're still in it.”
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