What will the New Orleans Saints do on draft day? That’s an impossible question to answer so far out from the 2023 NFL draft, but that’s not going to stop us from trying. The Saints Wire staff got together and collaborated on a four-round projection using the Pro Football Network mock draft machine.
Here’s what we came away with in trying to mimic what we know about the Saints draft trends and likely team needs after free agency and a month out from this year’s selection process:
Round 1
John Sigler: The Saints have a history of trading up in the first round, and they’ve put themselves in a similar position again while needing more help along the defensive line and at wide receiver.
Dylan Sanders: We’ve identified two targets worth trading up for at the halfway point: defensive end Lukas Van Ness and wide receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba. Those are the only two who make sense given the options available.
John Sigler: Agreed, but how much are we willing to offer? I can’t justify trading another future first rounder.
Maddy Hudak: Me either — seems like large jump from 29 to 16.
Dylan Sanders: Packaging 29, this year’s fourth (115), and next year’s second (from the Broncos) would almost get us to pick 17.
John Sigler: I like last year’s Detroit-Minnesota trade. The Vikings traded their first- and second-round picks (12 and 46) to the Lions in exchange for first-, second-, and third-round picks (32, 34, and 66).
Ross Jackson: Oh yeah! The Kwesi Adofo-Mensah mess-around format.
Dylan Sanders: See, the thing is, the Saints normally are the ones losing the trade on the value chart, the Lions are winning in that scenario.
John Sigler: This is true. So do we start making trade offers targeting those two players or wait it out a few more picks?
Dylan Sanders: Let’s see what happens at 17.
John Sigler: Smart. Wait, the Steelers took Smith-Njigba at 17. How about this offer for a trade targeting Van Ness: Saints get 18 and 55, Lions get 29, 40, 115, and a 2024 fifth.
Ross Jackson: I’m low on Van Ness having no starts and all that. I think if he’s there at 29 sure, but trading up for him is a little much for me.
Dylan Sanders: The no-starts thing isn’t much for me just because an Iowa underclassmen thing. He had plenty of playing-time and was the best player on the team.
John Sigler: Yeah, he still averaged 36 snaps a game
Dylan Sanders, sarcastically: The Saints have never possibly reached or even traded up for a high potential maybe unproven edge rusher. I’m with it.
John Sigler: Trade was declined by Detroit. The Buccaneers didn’t pick up the phone at 19, the Seahawks are on the clock at 20 and Van Ness is still available.
Ross Jackson: Curious if we wants to do the Detroit-style trade for Seattle’s 20 and 52?
John Sigler: That was accepted. Van Ness is our pick.
New Orleans gets 20 and 52 (378 points)
Seattle gets 29, 40, and 71 (419 points)
Round 2
John Sigler: We’re on the board at 52 with two trade offers. The Raiders want 52 and our 2024 fourth rounder for 70 and their 2024 second rounder, while the Browns want to trade 74 and their 2024 second round pick for 52 and our 2024 fifth rounder. The Saints should probably take it and recoup more picks, but the top prospects available are wide receiver Cedric Tillman, running back Zach Charbonnet, and offensive lineman Cody Mauch.
Ross Jackson: If we’re doing what the Saints would do I’m thinking Mauch or Tillman. Feels like Mauch is the most appropriately Saints pick here. Though Tillman has a connection with wide receivers coach Kodi Burns.
John Sigler: Agreed. I lean Mauch but want to hear others’ input first.
Maddy Hudak: I tend to agree based on what I recall hearing around him at the Senior Bowl and while I’m not a draft for need person foremost, the depth at offensive line is really bad and they’ve always tended to draft-and-develop versus sign linemen in free agency.
Dylan Sanders: I like Tillman a lot, think he’d do well in the offense. He’s 6-foot-3, over 200 pounds, has great body control and ball skills. I think he could learn a lot from Michael Thomas and the guys on the roster to become a more complete receiver, but he’s productive and has high potential.
Maddy Hudak: For me skill players on offense won’t help without a credible offensive line. Just depends on your evaluation of what they have now — hard for me to ignore how it’s impacted all of the offense, including the run game. But I’m not married to anyone and I’m open to hearing about him Dylan if he’s your guy.
Ross Jackson: I’ll vote Tillman.
John Sigler: Tillman is our pick. Mauch and Charbonnet went off the board at 53 and 54.
Round 3
John Sigler: We aren’t picking again until 115 right now, but I like the idea of packaging our 2024 fourth or fifth rounders into a move up and back into the third round.
Dylan Sanders: Aggressive mock draft here. Let’s do it. Riding this Carr to the top.
Ross Jackson: I love it. Especially with all the expected compensatory picks next year (two fourths and a sixth or two).
John Sigler: I wouldn’t normally sign off on that but getting a couple of comp fourths is burning a hole in my pocket. So what’s left on our to-do list? Guard, defensive tackle, linebacker, tight end?
Dylan Sanders: Defensive tackle is our priority, I think.
Ross Jackson: Agreed.
John Sigler: Makes sense. The defensive tackles are thinning out quickly though. South Carolina’s Zacch Pickens is the last one left with a grade close to the top-100. How soon do we want to start making trade calls? And what are we thinking to offer? I could see us getting maybe to 96 from 115 by trading next year’s fourth or fith.
Ross Jackson: Well of the remaining defensive tackles I love Pickens, Moro Ojomo, and Dante Stills. And Kobie Turner but he is probably more like a fifth-round guy.
John Sigler: Gotcha. So it’s not over if we can’t get Pickens. The Cardinals declined our trade offer of 115 and a 2024 fifth for 96. Going to keep trying with Washington. Should we bump the offer to our 2024 fourth if we keep striking out? Wait, no, Washington laughed and hung up the phone and picked Pickens themselves.
Ross Jackson: I hate that franchise so much. I think I’m pretty comfortable staying at 115 then. Hoping Ojomo makes it. But Stills and Brooks are really solid too.
Dylan Sanders: Is Ojomo the pick even with Van Ness in the fold?
Ross Jackson: Oh yeah. Van Ness on the edge and Ojomo on the interior.
John Sigler: So we’ll just stay put at 115.
Round 4
John Sigler: Alright, here are our options at 115. Ojomo is also available further down the board: running back Chase Brown, linebacker Henry To’o To’o, and safety Ji’Ayir Brown. I like To’o To’o the most out of that trio but I’m a Ji’Ayir Brown fan, too.
Ross Jackson: I am too. Yet they’ve invested so much at defensive back this offseason I have trouble going safety over linebacker and running back if that makes sense. Kind of tempted by Chase Brown, though, let me check my notes on To’o To’o.
John Sigler: No I understand that. There’s more opportunities at both of those spots I think. To’o To’o brings depth at LB and help on special teams. Brown has never really played a big role in the kicking game (but that’s not why you’d draft him anyway).
Ross Jackson: My notes on To’o To’o are “Fantastic fit, great tackler and very instinctive. Undersized and has trouble fighting through blockers with creating inconsistent impact in the run game. Mike, Will, Sam versatility, teachable and solid pressure potential.” So I dig it. If the only negatives are things that can be coached, I’m all for it. And he’s not undersized by the NFL’s linebacker prototype, just the Saints. But so too were Kwon Alexander, Nephi Sewell, and D’Marco Jackson.
Maddy Hudak: That was what I was about to ask size wise if he was comparative to Kwon. I agree with Ross on the defensive backs investment and going linebacker or running back.
Ross Jackson: I’m down with To’o To’o. I like that these are players not often mocked to the team and it feel very Saints-like. We can go linebacker here and still address defensive tackle (like Kobie Turner) and running back (like Kentucky’s Chris Rodriguez Jr.) in rounds five, six, or seven.
Recapping our draft
- Round 1, Pick 20: DE Lukas Van Ness, Iowa. Van Ness can play 25 to 30 snaps per game right away in the rotation and make his case to succeed Cameron Jordan when his contract expires next year.
- Round 2, Pick 52: WR Cedric Tillman, Tennessee. Tillman adds size and surety on contested catches, and he should also help push Tre’Quan Smith further down the depth chart, if not off the roster altogether.
- Round 3: No pick
- Round 4, Pick 115: LB Henry To’o To’o, Alabama. To’o To’o brings energy to the locker room and quality depth behind Demario Davis and Pete Werner, and he’ll play a ton of snaps on special teams right away.
We can address defensive tackle, running back, and guard in the later rounds or after the compensatory free agents deadline on May 1. We would’ve liked to get a blocking tight end earlier but that’s tough with so few picks. Honestly this is a good example of why the Saints should resist the temptation to trade up in the first round.
Our remaining draft assets:
- 2023 NFL draft: Rounds 5, 5 (via Eagles), 7, 7 (compensatory)
- 2024 NFL draft: Rounds 1, 2 (via Broncos), 4, 5, 6, 6 (via Eagles), and projected compensatory 4 (for David Onyemata), 4 (for Marcus Davenport), and 6 (for Kaden Elliss)
- 2025 NFL draft: Rounds 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6
