The New Orleans Saints desperately needed a win in Week 15 to keep their playoff hopes not only alive, but feasible. However, the Saints fell to the Washington Commanders on the last play of the game, as they failed to convert a two-point conversion, which led to a 20-19 loss and a now 5-9 record.
This put the Saints in a deep hole that is essentially insurmountable, and while it is statistically possible for them to make the playoffs, it would take scenarios that are well out of their hands in a lot of cases.
According to the updated ESPN model showing the playoff odds for every team, the Saints are the lowest ranked among the still possible teams, with a less than 1% chance of making the playoffs, winning the division, or making the Super Bowl.
The Chicago Bears, New York Giants, and Carolina Panthers were all eliminated from contention this week, leaving the Dallas Cowboys, San Francisco 49ers, Arizona Cardinals, Atlanta Falcons, Seattle Seahawks, Los Angeles Rams, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Washington Commanders, Green Bay Packers, Minnesota Vikings, Detroit Lions, and Philadelphia Eagles among the teams that the Saints are competing with.
The path to the playoffs for the Saints is generally a simple one when it comes down to it, but not particularly favorable. They would need to win out, and for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to lose out first and foremost. Additionally, they would need the Atlanta Falcons to lose at minimum two of their next three games, as the tiebreaker between the Saints and Falcons would go the way of the Falcons regardless of outcome from here on out.
If these three things occur, the Saints would make the playoffs at 8-9 over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at 8-9, as the Saints would win the tiebreaker for divisional record (as they would have to beat Tampa Bay in this three game span regardless) after a tie in the head to head tiebreaker for the season.
So, while this is an extremely improbable scenario, the simplicity of it makes it seem more possible than something like needing four other teams to win or lose specific games like previous seasons. We will see if any of this is still possible after Week 16, as it could all fall apart by then pretty quickly.
