A weak schedule is the gift that keeps on giving — or at least one that can keep a bad New Orleans Saints team in the hunt for a playoff seed. The Saints’ loss to the Atlanta Falcons in Week 12 hurt their chances, but they aren’t out of the playoff picture just yet.
ESPN’s Football Power Index predictions give the Saints and Falcons an equal chance of winning the division (42%) with New Orleans slightly ahead (49% to 47%) when it comes to making the playoffs. That suggests the Saints are seen as the team more likely to squeeze in as a wild-card seed should they fail to win the division, but each team’s best path to the postseason runs through the NFC South.
It would take a miracle (and a lot of incompetence from the other wild card hopefuls in the conference) for either the Saints or the Falcons to lose the division and still get into the playoffs. They need the Minnesota Vikings, Green Bay Packers, and Seattle Seahawks to start losing games.
What are other forecasts saying? The New York Times playoff simulator gives Atlanta a 60% chance of making the playoffs with New Orleans behind at 43%, fueled by a 55% chance of the Falcons winning the division compared to a 34% shot for the Saints. It’s a more competitive race than other division title fights around the league, but not by much, and neither team is very impressive with their 5-6 records.
The Saints haven’t been in control of their own destiny for very long this season, and when they have had chances they’ve ended up fumbling them. The stakes are high with just six games left to play.
