There are a few key things to know about Calwell, the safe Labor seat covering Melbourne’s outer north.
First, it is thoroughly working class, with education and income levels below the national average. Roughly a third of residents live within the lowest socioeconomic areas in Australia, while around 90% are in the lower half.
Second, it is multicultural, and often socially conservative, with a large religious migrant community. It has the highest Muslim population in Victoria (around 24%), putting it firmly in the sights of groups like The Muslim Vote and Muslim Votes Matter — the latter of which held its launch at the Broadmeadows Town Hall.
Third, popular sitting MP Maria Vamvakinou is retiring after 24 years, with Labor running former adviser Basem Abdo, a Palestinian-Australian, to replace her. The Coalition and Greens also preselected Muslim candidates, each engaging with Muslim Voices of Calwell, an informal group set up to ensure the community is heard.
For independent candidate Samim Moslih — an Afghan refugee who came to Australia in 1986, and an outspoken advocate for Gaza — Labor preselecting a Palestinian-Australian, presumably to head off a Muslim backlash, is an insult.
“It’s very visible in terms of how tacky the strategy is,” he tells me over a coffee in Roxburgh Park. The former VicRoads director has a warm, friendly vibe, but his anger with Labor is palpable. “I think a lot of Muslims, they see it for what it is. It’s so brazen, which is offensive.”
Moslih doesn’t believe having Abdo in Labor’s caucus will help the Palestinian cause, especially after what happened to Fatima Payman — “the canary in the mines”. “When she saw the injustice, and she flapped her wings, Labor turned the guns on her rather than listening,” he says. He doesn’t expect Abdo, who acts as a “conduit” between Labor and the community, to suddenly stop toeing the party line.
Moslih, who announced his run in December, is one of several independents popping up in Muslim-heavy Labor seats — most notably in Watson and Blaxland, held by Tony Burke and Jason Clare respectively. He is highly critical of the Albanese government’s response to Gaza, finding it “abhorrent” that it hasn’t condemned Islamophobia with the same force as it has antisemitism. Even with a ceasefire on the table (the government released this statement just this morning on the new deal), he doesn’t believe the Muslim community will forgive Labor for spending months “enabling a genocide”.
But while it’s a driving force, Moslih is adamanent he’s more than just a pro-Palestine candidate (his website doesn’t mention Gaza, though his Facebook regularly does). The 47-year-old’s frustrations with Labor run far deeper, accusing the party of moving to the right, following “the playbook of Tony Blair”.
“I feel Labor’s done that, not only with the Muslim community, with its old battler homeground, because it’s trying to appeal for the right, and it’s left a lot of people in the lurch,” he says. “They’re gloating about how great the economy is, when I just spoke to a gentleman over there” — he points to an elderly man he was seated with when I arrived — “the guy’s in pain. You speak to every second person, they’re saying they’re finding it hard to live.”
As with many independents, it’s hard to get a read on Moslih’s fiscal politics. I suggest that his answer implies he is left-wing, a notion he rejects, telling me he believes “in a leg up, not a hand out” — looking after those in need, while respecting that “an individual’s wealth is their wealth.”
He also speaks passionately about how migrants have been excluded — told to “be grateful” to be here. He wants to foster a sense of power and belonging, particularly among the young and disenfranchised, arguing many are tapping out of the system by not voting at all.
“That defeatist mindset is what politicians actually thrive on,” he argues. “It’s basically paradise for the current politicians. The more disengaged we are, the more we’re playing into those hands.”
And he’s eager to ensure Calwell gets a better deal, arguing Labor has taken it for granted.
“Maria was a beautiful person. She said many things that were very kind. The question is, what has the community got to show for it in terms of actual investment in Calwell?” he asks. “What has she done? What has Labor done at a federal level?”
“The only way that it can be actually listened to is if, in a minority government, you have an independent sitting in for Calwell,” he adds. “You can be a kingmaker in a minority government, or you can be the jester in the king’s court. And I think that’s the option that the community has.”
Calwell does indeed have options. There is at least one other independent running, Joseph Youhana, a member of the Assyrian community; there may soon be others. Greens candidate Mohamed El-Masri will be appealing to similar voters to Moslih on Gaza, though Moslih reckons the progressive party is an incorrect fit for socially conservative Calwell.
It remains to be seen whether The Muslim Vote and Muslim Votes Matter (separate entities, although they collaborate on events) will officially “endorse” candidates. The Muslim Vote UK did so last year, flipping four Labour seats to pro-Palestine independents (including one held by a member of Labour’s shadow cabinet).
Muslim Voices of Calwell, however, will not be endorsing, with founder Nail Aykan saying it’s about “bridging the community with the candidates”. The group has held forums with the party nominees, and will organise more for independents, demanding buy-in from whoever gets up.
Aykan, a former director of the Islamic Council of Victoria, agrees Labor has taken Calwell for granted, even as he praises Maria Vamvakinou as a “good friend of the Muslim community.”
“Now it’s a new chapter in Calwell’s history, it’s really open season,” he adds, pointing to Labor’s dwindling primary. “Basem and Labor can’t rely on Calwell being a safe Labor seat anymore. They’re gonna have to really earn the Muslim votes.”
As will Moslih, who insists he’s in it to win it. Challenging a major party from a standing start is a tall order, with pollsters so far dismissive of Muslim independent chances — though this will surely be one of the least predictable elements of the 2025 federal election.
Moslih believes if he can come in at least third, there is a chance he can win on preferences.
As for his own stipulated preferences, the independent candidate has some thinking to do.
“Enabling genocide cannot be rewarded,” he says, adding Labor will not be his second, third or even fourth choice. “I would strongly be contemplating Labor as last.”
Have something to say about this article? Write to us at letters@crikey.com.au. Please include your full name to be considered for publication in Crikey’s Your Say. We reserve the right to edit for length and clarity.
