Sadiq Khan leads his Tory rival Susan Hall by 50% to 25% as he seeks a third term in City Hall, an exclusive new poll reveals on Monday.
The YouGov survey for Queen Mary University of London’s Mile End Institute puts Mr Khan far ahead of Ms Hall with six months to go before the next mayoral election at the start of May 2024.
The academics said the findings on the voting intentions of adults in London suggests the current mayor is on course for a “comfortable victory”.
Green candidate Zoe Garbett is on 11%, Rob Blackie of the Liberal Democrats 7% and Howard Cox of Reform UK 4%.
Dr Elizabeth Simon, postdoctoral researcher in British Politics at Queen Mary University of London, said: “While it looks likely that Sadiq Khan will be able to celebrate securing a record third term as Mayor of London in May 2024, Londoners’ ratings of his performance while in post offer less cause for celebration.”
The poll showed 30% of Londoners are satisfied with the way Mr Khan has performed since becoming Mayor while 46% are dissatisfied, giving a net approval rating of -16%.
Older Londoners (those aged 50+), people living in Outer London and those who voted to leave the EU in 2016 and/or for the Conservatives in 2019 appear to be particularly dissatisfied with his performance.
At elections, however, voters even if dissatisfied with one party or another, or particular candidates, face a choice of which one they prefer.
Mr Khan also appears to be benefiting from the overall level of support for Labour in the city.
More than half of Londoners, 55%, would vote Labour if there was a General Election tomorrow and 20% Conservative - a 35-point lead for Sir Keir Starmer’s party in the capital, compared to being ahead by around 15 to 20 points in the country as a whole.
Eight out of ten Labour supporters would vote along “party lines” if a mayoral election was held in London tomorrow, according to the survey.
The 35-point lead is the second highest on record, according to the YouGov London Tracker going back to 2010, but less than the peak of 40 points this spring.
These findings suggest the Tories may have recovered some ground since the more immediate aftermath of the brief Liz Truss premiership but still trail Labour by far more than in previous years.
The Conservatives also appear to be losing support to parties on the Left and the Right.
Six out of ten Londoners who voted Conservative at the 2019 General Election say they would still do so if there was a General Election tomorrow.
But 18% of 2019 Conservative voters would instead opt for Labour and 14% for Reform UK.
Ms Hall has sought to turbo-charge her campaign by vowing to reverse the expansion of the Ultra Low Emission Zone to Outer London, if she became Mayor.
The poll found Londoners are equally split over the decision to extend ULEZ to outer boroughs.
Forty per cent per cent oppose the move, 40% support it, and 16% neither support nor oppose the decision.
While 42% of Londoners think ULEZ should continue to cover all of London, 26% say it should return to its former inner London boundaries and 20% that it should be scrapped entirely.
The poll’s detailed figures show Mr Khan gets more backing in Inner London than Outer London, by 62% to 41%, with the reverse for Ms Hall, 19% to 29% respectively.
Mr Khan gets the support of 45% of white Londoners and 57% from the black and minority ethnic communities, while the respective figures for Ms Hall are 30% and 18%.
Two thirds of Londoners who voted Remain back Mr Khan, and 17% of Leavers, with Ms Hall’s figures being 55% among those who supported Out and 11% staying in the EU.
The 50% to 25% split in favour of Mr Khan was reached by YouGov excluding 21% “don’t knows,” 8% “would not vote” and three per cent “refused”, with the pollster using a methodology to work out how to take these groups into account.
Meanwhile, three quarters of Londoners say the Government is taking too little action to tackle the cost-of-living crisis, with women more concerned, 80%, compared to men, 67%.
Two thirds of Londoners are currently worried about climate change and its effects, with only 16% confident that the Government will achieve its target of Net Zero emissions by 2050, compared to 72% who take the opposite view.
* YouGov interviewed 1,066 adults online in London between October 12 and 17. Data are weighted.
