At face value, scoring has not been a huge problem for Liverpool in 2022/23. After the Premier League matches on Tuesday evening, only four teams in the division had bagged more goals.
However, there are two key issues hiding beneath the headline figure. For starters, the Reds scored 25 fewer goals than they did in their first 28 games of 2021/22, an enormous plummet. The other main problem is that a third of their total came in just two games, when they battered Bournemouth and Manchester United.
And even with those goal-heavy games, Liverpool are on track to score the fewest league goals they’ve mustered in a full season under Jurgen Klopp. Wastefulness has been a problem throughout the Reds’ squad this term.
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Four of Liverpool’s top five players for shots taken have scored fewer goals than expected (per FBRef), with the top three for shots per 90 minutes all below par. The net result is that the Reds are 4.1 goals below their xG after 28 games, when they finished 5.3 above last season.
The worst offender has been Darwin Nunez, with his poor conversion rate for big chances being the main issue. Liverpool have previously seen a Uruguayan suffer similar problems only to come good the following year, but their big money signing from Benfica won’t automatically follow in the footsteps of Luis Suarez in 2023/24.
Many of Nunez’s worst misses have occurred when he has been put clean through on goal. However, a new article on The Athletic has highlighted a less obvious way in which Liverpool have been wasteful this term.
The issue identified relates to back-post chances, which they define as “any open-play chance created that is passed from the outer side of one goalpost and ends on the corresponding side of the pitch between the far third of the goalframe and the width of the penalty area.” With the Reds possessing several excellent crossers, it was unsurprising to see them joint-third in the table for fashioning this type of opportunity.
However, four clubs have generated more expected goals from back-post chances, and far worse, nine teams have scored more than Liverpool’s tally of two from them. With a gap of 1.7 between xG and goals, Klopp’s side have been the most profligate team in the division.
Not that this wound needs further salt applying, but without revealing the total of goals conceded in the article, mention is made of two against the Reds: Aleksandar Mitrovic for Fulham on the opening weekend, before Bryan Mbeumo added one for Brentford in January. There must be something about playing in west London, and these goals mean Liverpool are at best level for scoring and conceding from back-post chances, and likely in debit.
The Reds’ goals from them haven’t proven too valuable either. The rout of Bournemouth got underway when Roberto Firmino crossed for Luis Diaz to score, but such was the obvious gap between the teams the Reds would’ve surely won somehow regardless. The other example saw Andy Robertson create an equaliser against Leeds for Mohamed Salah, with Liverpool eventually losing anyway.
Without access to past data it’s hard to be certain, but this feels like a previous area of extreme strength which has been lost. The fact Sadio Mane is the top recipient of Trent Alexander-Arnold assists while Salah holds that position for Robertson hints at how effective the Reds have been at creating chances by delivering the ball from one flank to the opposite back post region. The Reds’ total of 20 crossed assists in 2019/20 is also the most any Premier League side has recorded in the last nine seasons, with the current crop at the club not yet half way to that mark.
The stats for 2022/23 suggest they can be among the most potent sides again, they just need a little refinement in the finishing department. While that’s true in general this season, Liverpool have lost their back post advantage over the competition and they need to get it back.
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