December S&P 500 E-Mini futures (ESZ24) are trending down -0.24% this morning as weak Eurozone PMI data cast doubt on the health of the global economy, while investors braced for U.S. business activity data.
In yesterday’s trading session, Wall Street’s three main equity benchmarks closed in the green. Snowflake (SNOW) jumped over +32% after the cloud data storage and analytics company posted upbeat Q3 results and raised its full-year product revenue guidance. Also, Super Micro Computer (SMCI) surged more than +15% and was the top percentage gainer on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 after the server maker submitted a compliance plan to Nasdaq and said it could regain compliance within an extension period to file its 10-K annual report. In addition, Deere (DE) climbed over +8% after the maker of agricultural and construction equipment reported better-than-expected FQ4 results. On the bearish side, Alphabet (GOOGL) slid more than -4% and was the top percentage loser on the S&P 500 after the Justice Department argued to a judge that Google must divest its Chrome browser and implement other measures to end its monopoly on online search.
Economic data released on Thursday showed that the U.S. Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index fell to -5.5 in November, weaker than expectations of 7.4. Also, U.S. October existing home sales rose +3.4% m/m to 3.96M, stronger than expectations of 3.95M. In addition, the Conference Board’s leading economic index for the U.S. fell -0.4% m/m in October, weaker than expectations of -0.3% m/m. Finally, the number of Americans filing for initial jobless claims in the past week unexpectedly fell -6K to a 6-1/2 month low of 213K, compared with the 220K expected.
New York Fed President John Williams said Thursday that U.S. economic growth has been “very good” and “the disinflationary process will continue.” Williams added that he expects “it will be appropriate over time to bring the fed-funds rate down closer to more normal or neutral levels.” Also, Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin said he anticipates inflation will continue to decline across the world’s largest economy. In addition, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee reaffirmed his support for additional interest rate cuts and his willingness to implement them more gradually.
Meanwhile, U.S. rate futures have priced in a 62.8% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut and a 37.2% chance of no rate change at December’s monetary policy meeting.
Today, all eyes are focused on the U.S. S&P Global Manufacturing PMI preliminary reading, which is set to be released in a couple of hours. Economists, on average, forecast that the November Manufacturing PMI will come in at 48.8, compared to last month’s value of 48.5.
Also, investors will focus on the U.S. S&P Global Services PMI, which arrived at 55.0 in October. Economists foresee the preliminary November figure to be 55.2.
The University of Michigan’s U.S. Consumer Sentiment Index will be released today as well. Economists estimate this figure to arrive at 74.0 in November, compared to 70.5 in October.
In addition, market participants will be looking toward a speech from Fed Governor Michelle Bowman.
In the bond market, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is at 4.388%, down -1.04%.
The Euro Stoxx 50 futures are down -0.31% this morning, giving up earlier gains as weak PMI data from the region dampened sentiment. Bank stocks led the declines on Friday. At the same time, technology stocks gained ground as investors shrugged off initial concerns over Nvidia’s revenue guidance. Data from the Office for National Statistics released Friday showed that Britain’s monthly retail sales dropped more than expected in October as uncertainty regarding the government’s tax plans led to tighter purse strings. Separately, final data from the Federal Statistical Office showed that the German economy grew more slowly than initially estimated in the third quarter. In addition, a survey revealed that Eurozone business activity unexpectedly slipped into the contraction zone in November, with the bloc’s dominant services industry declining for the first time in 10 months and manufacturing deepening its contraction. Meanwhile, the chance of a 50 basis point rate cut by the European Central Bank in December surged to 50% from around 15% at Thursday’s close. Investors are also closely watching for further escalations in the Russia-Ukraine war. In corporate news, Thales (HO.FP) slumped over -6% following news of a bribery investigation by French and British authorities.
U.K.’s Retail Sales, U.K.’s Core Retail Sales, Germany’s GDP, Eurozone’s Manufacturing PMI (preliminary), and Eurozone’s Services PMI (preliminary) data were released today.
U.K. October Retail Sales arrived at -0.7% m/m and +2.4% y/y, weaker than expectations of -0.3% m/m and +3.4% y/y.
U.K. October Core Retail Sales came in at -0.9% m/m and +2.0% y/y, weaker than expectations of -0.3% m/m and +3.3% y/y.
The German GDP has been reported at +0.1% q/q and -0.3% y/y in the third quarter, weaker than expectations of +0.2% q/q and -0.2% y/y.
Eurozone November Manufacturing PMI came in at 45.2, weaker than expectations of 46.0.
Eurozone November Services PMI arrived at 49.2, weaker than expectations of 51.6.
Asian stock markets today settled mixed. China’s Shanghai Composite Index (SHCOMP) closed down -3.06% and Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Index (NIK) closed up +0.68%.
China’s Shanghai Composite Index closed sharply lower today, hitting its lowest level in three weeks as worries over the nation’s economic and corporate performance weighed on sentiment. Financial and insurance stocks led the declines on Friday. Investors became increasingly skeptical about the effectiveness of China’s stimulus measures in boosting economic growth, while concerns over higher tariffs under the incoming Trump administration further clouded the economic outlook. Meanwhile, Chinese Vice Commerce Minister Wang Shouwen stated on Friday that the country is open to active dialogue with the U.S., adding that it can withstand the upcoming tariff increase promised by President-elect Donald Trump. “We believe that China and the U.S. can maintain a stable, healthy, and sustainable development trend in economic and trade relations,” Wang said at a press conference in Beijing. Reuters previously reported that advisers to the Chinese government are suggesting that Beijing should maintain an economic growth target of about 5% for next year, advocating for stronger fiscal stimulus to mitigate the effects of anticipated U.S. tariff increases on the country’s exports. In corporate news, Baidu plunged over -8% in Hong Kong after the search engine operator reported disappointing Q3 online marketing revenue. Also, Alibaba Group fell more than -4% in Hong Kong after rival PDD Holdings cautioned about intensifying competition in the e-commerce industry.
Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Index closed higher today, tracking overnight gains on Wall Street. Energy stocks led the gains on Friday. Chip stocks also advanced as investors shook off initial concerns over Nvidia’s revenue forecast. However, the benchmark index posted its second consecutive weekly decline. Government data released on Friday showed that Japan’s core consumer inflation, which excludes fresh food but includes fuel costs, eased to a six-month low in October, influenced by the government’s energy subsidies. Separately, a private-sector survey showed that Japan’s factory activity shrank for the fifth consecutive month in November due to weak demand caused by concerns over China’s economic slowdown and persistent cost pressures. Meanwhile, Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda signaled this week that another rate hike could occur as soon as December, citing the yen’s recent weakness. According to just over half of the economists in a Reuters poll, the BOJ will raise interest rates at the December meeting. In other news, Japan’s cabinet approved an economic stimulus package worth 21.9 trillion yen ($141.71 billion) on Friday, designed to mitigate rising living costs and encourage business innovation and investment. The Nikkei Volatility, which takes into account the implied volatility of Nikkei 225 options, closed down -9.60% to 23.64.
The Japanese October National Core CPI came in at +2.3% y/y, stronger than expectations of +2.2% y/y.
The Japanese November au Jibun Bank Japan Manufacturing PMI (preliminary) arrived at 49.0, weaker than expectations of 49.5.
Pre-Market U.S. Stock Movers
Intuit (INTU) slid over -5% in pre-market trading after the tax and accounting software company issued below-consensus FQ2 guidance.
Reddit (RDDT) slumped more than -6% in pre-market trading after Bloomberg reported that shareholder Advance Magazine Publishers was seeking to establish a credit facility using an equity stake in the company.
Elastic (ESTC) soared about +28% in pre-market trading after the AI enterprise search company reported stronger-than-expected FQ2 results and lifted its annual guidance.
Gap (GAP) surged more than +15% in pre-market trading after the retailer posted upbeat Q3 results and raised its full-year revenue growth guidance.
Ross Stores (ROST) climbed over +7% in pre-market trading after reporting better-than-expected Q3 EPS and boosting its full-year EPS forecast.
You can see more pre-market stock movers here
Today’s U.S. Earnings Spotlight: Friday - November 22nd
Buckle (BKE), Global Blue Group Holding (GB), Dynagas LNG (DLNG), Destination XL Group (DXLG).
