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The Guardian - UK
The Guardian - UK
Business
Graeme Wearden

Germany ‘on brink of recession’; Gazprom to cut gas deliveries to Europe – as it happened

Ryanair Covid-19 Michael OLeary United States Omicron CBI Peel Ports Unite
The industrial harbour of Stade, on the river Elbe in northern Germany.
The industrial harbour of Stade, on the river Elbe in northern Germany. Photograph: Axel Heimken/AFP/Getty Images

Germany has rejected Gazprom’s claim that gas supplies through Nord Stream 1 need to be cut due to technical reasons, as Associated Press explains:

Russia’s Gazprom said Monday that it would further reduce natural gas flows through a major pipeline to Europe to 20% of capacity, citing equipment repairs. The move escalates tensions over energy supplies that are dwindling just as the continent is trying to shore up its storage for winter.

The Russian state-owned company tweeted that it would reduce “the daily throughput” of the Nord Stream 1 pipeline to Germany to 33 million cubic meters as of Wednesday, saying it was shutting down a second turbine for repairs. The head of Germany’s network regulator confirmed the reduction.

“The halving of the nomination of NordStream1 was announced for the day after tomorrow,” tweeted Klaus Mueller.

Deliveries on Monday were at 40% of full capacity when Nord Stream 1 reopened after 10 days of scheduled maintenance last week. The German government said it rejected the notion that technical reasons would lead to further gas reductions.

“We are monitoring the situation very closely in close exchange with the federal network agency and the gas crisis team,” the German economy ministry said in a statement Monday after Gazprom’s announcement.

“According to our information, there is no technical reason for a reduction in deliveries.”

European gas futures rose after Russia’s Gazprom said it will further slash flows through Nord Stream 1 this week.

Bloomberg has the details:

Nord Stream flows were already reduced to 40% of capacity since last month as a separate turbine is delayed following repairs in Canada after uncertainty over the impact of sanctions on Russia. President Vladimir Putin warned last week flows could drop to 20% if the turbine issues aren’t been resolved.

European benchmark futures rose as much as 10% to 176 euros a megawatt-hour and were trading at 172.4 at 4:43 pm Amsterdam time.

Gazprom to cut Nord Stream 1 gas supplies

A late PS: Russian energy giant Gazprom has said it is halting one more turbine at the Nord Stream 1 gas pipeline for maintenance.

That will result in a reduction of gas flows from Wednesday, and likely intensify worries in Germany about shortages this winter.

Gazprom said that due to the turbine stoppage, daily production capacity at the Russian Portovaya compressor station will be cut to 33 million cubic metres (mcm) of gas per day from 04:00 GMT on July 27, down from its full capacity of more than 160 mcm per day.

Updated

Closing summary

Time to recap.

A flurry of economic data has underlined how global growth is weak, as companies continue to be buffeted by inflationary pressures....and worries that the pandemic could intensify this autumn.

Germany is teetering on the brink of recession, as worries over soaring energy prices and gas shortages knocked business confidence to its lowest level in more than two years.

Research institute IFO warned that German companies are more pessimistic about their current situation and the outlook for the next six months, saying:

Higher energy prices and the threat of a gas shortage are weighing on the economy.

UK factories have reported a slowdown in growth and new orders, as demand weakened -- while price pressures could also be lessening as commodity prices drop.

And in the US, activity has been below the trend growth rate for the last two months.

Companies are also feeling the squeeze, with grill-maker Weber withdrawing its full-year guidance for revenue and earnings, citing inflationary pressures and geopolitical uncertainty.

Ryanair had better news - it posted its first Q1 profit since before the pandemic. But the budget airline remained cautious, as the risk of new Covid-19 variants this autumn could disrupt travel again.

There could be more disruption this week, as staff at Lufthansa hold a one-day strike. And staff shortages may continue in the UK, with two in five airport workers thinking of quitting.

With staff shortages rife, discount supermarket chain Aldi is giving its workers their second pay rise of the year...

..while TSB bank is giving lower-paid staff a £1,000 payment to help with the cost of living crisis.

With consumers cutting back, the number of restaurants falling into insolvency has increased by more than 60% in the past year.

Non-essential spending on categories as diverse as gardening, gambling and newspaper subscriptions has dropped too, Nationwide reports.

Tesco is offering free children’s meals with any purchase at its supermarket cafes during the school summer holidays to help families struggling with the cost of living crisis.

But the wealthest are splashing out on more luxury supercars than ever before, with sales of supercars – such as Ferrari, Bugatti, Aston Martin, Maserati and Koenigsegg models – registered at UK addresses jumping 19% in 2021.

And the KPMG partner who led the audit of failed outsourcer Carillion has been banned from the accounting profession for a decade for providing false and misleading information to regulators.

We’ll be back tomorrow... GW

While the global economy is expected to avert a recession, business conditions will be increasingly difficult in the year ahead as financial markets tighten, according to new forecasts from S&P Global Market Intelligence.

It has cut its growth forecasts, and now predicts real GDP growth will slow to 2.7% in 2022 and 2.6% in 2023, from 5.8% in 2021.

The risk of recession remains high—in the 40–50% range in major economies, it adds.

A person cooks on a Weber grill outside the New York Stock Exchange to mark its flotation on August 5, 2021.
A person cooks on a Weber grill outside the New York Stock Exchange to mark its flotation on August 5, 2021. Photograph: Andrew Kelly/Reuters

US grill maker Weber has announced the surprise departure of CEO Chris Scherzinger, and warned that mounting inflationary and supply chain pressures could lead to layoffs.

Weber has withdrawn its fiscal 2022 net sales and core earnings forecasts, cautioning that inflationary and supply chain pressures were hitting consumer confidence, spending patterns, and profit margins.

The outdoor cooking market had sizzled during the pandemic, with lockdowns encouraging people to eat at home, and consumers splashing out on new hardware.

But Weber’s warning indicates that this boom may be over. Shares have fallen 16% today, and are down around two-thirds since the firm floated in just a year ago.

Tesla has received a second subpoena from the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission over Elon Musk’s famous (or notorious) tweets in 2018 about taking the electric automaker private.

The electric car company disclosed in a quarterly regulatory filing today that it received a new subpoena from the SEC on June 13, “seeking information on our governance processes around compliance with the SEC settlement.”

That settlement, which saw Musk lose his title as chairman of Tesla while allowing him to remain as CEO, was reached in 2018 after he tweeted he had “funding secured” to take Tesla private.

An updated agreement in 2019 meant that Tesla’s lawyers would pre-approve tweets with material information about the company.

Tesla also received a subpoena in November 2021, shortly after Musk posted a Twitter poll asking if he should sell some of his shareholding in Tesla.

Economic growth in the US continues to slow, according to the latest data from the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.

The Chicago Fed’s national activity index, which tracks activity in the US, came in at -0.19 points for June. May’s reading has been revised down too, also to -0.19.

A zero value for the CFNAI indicates the national economy is expanding at its historical trend growth rate, so this suggests the US economy has lagged below that rate for the last two months.

The Unite union says it has won a £1,000 cost of living payment for the lowest paid workers at UK bank TSB.

The money will be paid in two stages – in October 2022 and then the remainder in February 2023 - to those earning £35,000 or less.

Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham has won a legal appeal over his plans to bring Greater Manchester’s buses under public control by next year.

The Court of Appeal has upheld Burnham’s decision in March 2021 to bring services in the region under public control, rejecting a challenge from Rotala, which owns the Diamond Bus service, on Monday.

The decision paves the way for reform of bus services in the region, with Burnham tweeting that the last legal challenge has now been seen off:

Burnham said:

“This is brilliant news for the people of Greater Manchester – and for anyone across the UK who cares about having a bus service that puts people ahead of shareholder profit.

The pound has touched its highest level in three weeks against the US dollar, up 0.5% today at $1.2066.

A better-than-expected survey of UK purchasing managers last Friday has supported sterling, while the dollar has dipped back as traders ponder how aggressively US interest rates will keep rising, as growth slows.

Thanim Islam, market strategist at international business payments firm Equals Money, explains:

Ahead of this Wednesday’s Fed interest rate decision, bets for a rate hike above 0.75% dropped as did the odds for a 0.75% rate hike in September, now down to a 30% chance.

PMI data forming both the service and manufacturing sectors fell to the lowest since June 2020 with the data suggesting a composite of both sectors now actually contracting.

UK watchdog launches probe into ViaSat's takeover of UK's Inmarsat

A Russian Proton-M rocket carrying the British communications satellite Inmarsat-5 F3 back in 2015.
A Russian Proton-M rocket carrying the British communications satellite Inmarsat-5 F3 back in 2015. Photograph: AFP/Getty Images

UK competition authorities are to investigate the $7.3bn takeover of UK satellite communications company Inmarsat by the California-based Viasat

The Competition and Markets Authority said Monday that it has started an investigation into the merger of ViaSat Inc. and Inmarsat PLC, which was agreed last November.

Interested parties have until 15th August to submit comments (more details here).

Inmarsat plays a key role in Britain’s economy and national security, providing mobile satellite services used to underpin email, internet and video conferencing, as well as in-flight wifi.

UK consumers start to slash spending to combat rising cost of living

British consumers began cutting back on a range of non-essential spending last month, as the cost of living squeeze hit households.

Building society Nationwide reports that spending on almost all discretionary categories fell in June, led by gardening, gambling and subscriptions.

Overall spending fell by 4% month-on-month in June to just over £8 billion, driven by a 6% drop in non-essential spending and 3% drop in essential spending compared to May.

Spending on subscriptions, such as Netflix, Amazon Prime, food, drink, newspapers and magazines, fell 9% month-on-month, suggesting higher inflation was prompting consumers to cut their outgoings.

But spending on fuel and electric car charging surged by a third compared to a year ago, driven by the jump in petrol and diesel prices.

Mark Nalder, Head of Payments at Nationwide Building Society, said households are cutting back ‘across the board’. after a peak in spending in May: can.

This is happening as we enter the summer period where customers will want to enjoy themselves, so it will be interesting to see how these often-conflicting interests are balanced.

As we head into the holiday season, we expect budgeting to continue being a feature as the nation prepares for even higher costs with inflation continuing to climb and the energy price cap rising again this autumn.”

The KPMG partner who led the audit of failed outsourcer Carillion has been banned from the accounting profession for a decade for providing false and misleading information to regulators.

Peter Meehan will also have to pay a fine of £250,000 after a Financial Reporting Council (FRC) tribunal found that he and other KPMG managers had misled the regulator using forged documents.

After a weak start, European stock markets have now turned higher.

Germany’s DAX and France’s CAC are both up over 0.4%,.

But the UK’s FTSE 100 is lagging -- just 0.1% or 7 points higher. The strengthening pound is weighing on exporters, although bank stocks are higher.

The cost of living crisis has prompted Aldi to give its UK store workers their second pay rise of the year.

The German discounter, which runs 970 UK stores, said store assistants will see with their minimum pay increase to £10.50 an hour, while those in Greater London will get a rise to £11.95.

Aldi said the pay hike will support 26,000 store workers and take the firm’s pay investment to £43m over the past year.

Earlier this year, Aldi raised its minimum pay increased to £10.10 from £9.55, or to £11.55 from £11.07 within the M25.

Back at Dover, port authorities say that traffic is flowing normally this morning, after queues were reported as holidaymakers continue to head off for summer.

Here’s our news story on Ryanair flagging the risk of possible new virus variants in the autumn, as it post its first spring profits since before the coronavirus pandemic.

UK industrial output growth weakest since April 2021

Output growth at UK factories has slowed to its slowest rate in over a year.

The CBI’s latest ‘Industrial Trends’ survey found that output volumes and new orders in the quarter to July both increased at the slowest pace since to April 2021.

A net balance of +6 of firms reported a rise in output over the last three months, down from +19 in April, as demand eased at home and abroad.

Anna Leach, CBI Deputy Chief Economist, said:

“The manufacturing sector has been an economic bright spot in recent months, but output and orders have softened amid ongoing cost pressures, supply challenges and a generalised weakening in economic conditions both in the UK and globally.

Encouragingly, investment intentions for the year ahead picked up in comparison to April.

Firms also reported that price pressures eased, with metal manufacturers, as well as plastics and electrical goods manufacturers reporting a slowdown in rising costs.

Lufthansa strike announced

Germany, like the UK, is also seeing a rise in industrial action as workers push companies to lift earnings to match rising inflation.

And today a German union has called on Lufthansa ground staff to walk out on a one-day strike Wednesday in a dispute over pay, Associated Press reports, which would add to travel disruption.

The ver.di service workers’ union said today that the call applies to all Lufthansa locations in Germany. It comes amid negotiations on pay for about 20,000 employees of logistical, technical and cargo subsidiaries of the airline.

The strike was set to start at 3:45 a.m local time on Wednesday and end at 6 am on Thursday.

The union aims to raise the pressure on Lufthansa ahead of the next round of negotiations on August 3 and 4.

Updated

Japan’s government has slashed its economic growth forecast for this fiscal year, warning that overseas demand is slowing.

Japan’s GDP is now expected to rise by just 2% this year, down from a previous forecast of 3.2% back in January.

The latest forecasts include much higher wholesale and consumer inflation estimates, due to rising food and energy prices and the weaker yen (which pushed up import costs).

Japan has also cut its export growth forecasts -- now expected to expand 2.5% this year, compared to 5.5% before.

ING: Germany faces 'perfect storm' as recession fears grow

Today’s slump in business confidence illustrates that the list of downside risks for the German economy is getting longer and longer, says Carsten Brzeski of ING:

The biggest single risk if further disruption to Germany’s energy consumption and a complete stop in the Russian gas supply, Brzeski explains:

The reopening of the NordStream1 pipeline last week has already helped to fill up Germany’s gas reserves, which currently stand at around 66%. To get through the winter without any Russian gas, the government intended to have reserves filled up to 90%.

This target increasingly looks unachievable and explains why over the weekend, the first prominent Green politicians opened the door to an extension of the last three nuclear power plants, which are still scheduled to close down at the end of this year.

A further escalation in the energy crisis will remain a key risk for the economy going into the winter.

But the wider outlook for the German economy is “anything but rosy”, with low water levels in key rivers such as the Rhine adding to supply problems:

Currently, in the base case scenario with continuing supply chain frictions, uncertainty and high energy and commodity prices as a result of the ongoing war in Ukraine, the German economy will be pushed into a technical recession.

To make matters worse, the current dry weather has reduced water levels in the main rivers close to their 2018 levels, when low water levels led to the disruption of supply chains. All of this makes for a perfect storm in the second half of the year.

Germany 'on brink of recession' as energy crisis hits confidence

Germany is on the brink of recession as soaring energy price and fears of a gas shortage drive down confidence, a new survey shows.

Research institute IFO has reported that German business morale fell this month to the lowest level in over two years.

Companies fear that business will significantly worsen in the coming months, with manufacturing firms particularly gloomy.

IFO’s business climate index fell to 88.6, from June’s 92.2, a bigger drop than expected, putting Europe’s largest on the threshold of recession.

It’s the worst reading since June 2020, during the first Covid-19 lockdowns, when the global economy fell into recession.

Ifo President Clemens Fuest said.

“Germany is on the brink of a recession,”

High energy prices and the threat of gas shortages are weighing on the economy. Companies are expecting significantly worse business activity in the coming months.”

IFO’s index of current economic conditions dropped to 97.7, from June’s 99.4, while its expectations index tumbled to 80.3 from 85.5, showing increased pessimism across the board.

Pessimism in manufacturing about the coming months has reached its highest level since April 2020, with factories reporting a decline in new orders

In the service sector, the business climate has deteriorated significantly, with expectations falling, including in the tourism sector and the hospitality industry.

Conditions also weakened in the retail and construction sectors.

Last week Germany’s economics minister announced a new wave of emergency measures to cut the country’s consumption of gas.

Flows from Russia through the Nord Stream 1 pipeline only resumed at reduced levels last week, following a scheduled shutdown that raised fears of a longer stoppage.

Updated

A European Central Bank policymaker has signalled that further large interest rate rises may be coming, after it surprised markets with a larger-than-expected hike last week.

Martins Kazaks has told Bloomberg that a further ‘quite significant’ increase to rates may be needed in September, on top of the 50-basis point rise agreed at July’s meeting.

Kazaks, who is a hawkish member of the EBC’s governing council, says:

“I would not say that this was the only front-loading,

I would say that the rate increase in September also needs to be quite significant.”

Kazaks declined to speak about possible scenarios for the October meeting but said he’d have “no major objections” to recent market expectations for 150 basis points of tightening by next June. More here.

European stock markets have begun the week with small losses, as recession worries continue to weigh on shares.

Oil companies are among the fallers in London, along with gambling group Entain (-2.7%) and Haleon (-2.6%), the consumer health business spun off by GSK last week.

  • FTSE 100: down 21 points or 0.3% at 7,254 points
  • Germany’s DAX: down 55 points or 0.45 at 13,196 points
  • France’s CAC: down 7 points or 0.1% at 6,209 points

More queues at Dover amid fears for 'vulnerable' summer

Queues are building at the Port of Dover amid fears that the severe disruption seen in recent days could return to Kent throughout the summer, PA Media reports.

Ferry operator DFDS told passengers that there were “queues of around an hour” for French border checks on Monday morning, and to “allow a minimum of 120 minutes before your departure to complete all controls”.

P&O Ferries wrote on Twitter:

“The queues have picked up and it is taking approximately one hour to clear passport control.”

There’s also a one-hour wait time to get through border control at Calais to travel to Dover, P&O adds, although the roads approaching Calais were clear.

Toby Howe, senior highways manager at Kent County Council and tactical lead at Kent Resilience Forum, said the current queues at the Port of Dover were “normal for a Monday morning”.

He told BBC Radio 4’s Today programme that next weekend is likely to be “very busy”.

Howe said:

“It’s the second busiest getaway weekend of the summer holidays.

“As we’ve just found out the weekend just gone, traffic numbers travelling across the Channel were back to pre-pandemic levels and with the increased checks it is slower to get through, so it takes very little to cause those tailbacks.”

Howe added that “Basically it’s a very vulnerable situation”, and that it wouldn’t take much to cause further problems.

UK restaurant insolvencies jump by more than 60%

A sorry we are closed sign.

Worker shortages and the cost of living crisis has forced more UK restaurants to shut their doors for good.

The number of restaurants falling into insolvency has increased by more than 60% in the past year, according to accountancy firm UHY Hacker Young.

It reports that 1,406 restaurants in the UK closed their doors in the 12 months to May, up 64% on the previous year.

Peter Kubik, a partner at UHY Hacker Young, says pressure on hospitality firms is intensifying.

“Restaurants that only just managed to survive the pandemic thanks to government support are now facing fresh challenges in the form of rising inflation, a post-Brexit labour shortage and consumers who simply cannot afford to spend as much.”

Here’s the full story:

That follows a number of high-profile restaurant businesses – including Byron, Gourmet Burger Kitchen and the Italian chains Strada and Carluccio’s – being forced to shut dozens of sites at the height of the pandemic as they incurred heavy financial losses during repeated lockdowns and other Covid restrictions.

Two in five airport workers 'thinking of quitting'

More than two in five airport workers are considering quitting, research suggests, which could escalate delays already seen at terminals this year.

A survey of 1,700 workers by the UK jobs site CV-Library found reasons for wanting to leave the industry included wanting better pay and less stress.

Two out of three of those surveyed said they had not had a pay rise in the past 12 months, despite staff shortages that left airlines and airports scrambling to hire staff. More here:

Ryanair shares dip

Shares in Ryanair have dropped almost 1% in early trading, as traders digest Michael O’Leary’s warning that the recovery is ‘still fragile’.

Victoria Scholar, head of investment at interactive investor, points out that Ryanair’s shares are down around a third this year, due to a series of problems:

The industry is grappling with a series of headwinds from volatile fuel prices, the war in Ukraine, staff shortages and the spread of Covid-19. Unhappy passengers have been on the front pages this summer with strikes, cancellations and delays affecting the whole travel industry.

As a result, shares in Ryanair have struggled, shedding around 30% since the February high and the onset of war in Ukraine.”

Updated

Analysts are impressed with Ryanair’s performance as it returned to profit for the last quarter [the results are online here].

Stephen Furlong, analyst at Davy, says its operation, growth, cost and balance sheet are “best in class,” with after-tax profits of €170m beating forecasts.

Stockbrokers Goodbody described the release as “a very strong set of numbers”.

Citi said a Q1 cost outperformance and comments that fares are now ahead of pre-Covid levels were “likely to drive FY consensus upgrade.”

Aviation export Richard Schuurman has more details on Ryanair’s results:

Ryanair also points out that the jump in fuel prices this year will push up its costs:

Despite being one of the best hedged airlines in Europe, high oil prices will lead to increased costs on our 20% unhedged fuel for the remainder of FY23.

It also blames a drop in customer satisfaction ratings on ongoing air traffic control delays, and the chaos at airport security this year.

Introduction: Ryanair signals risk of new Covid variants

Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of business, the world economy and the financial markets.

Budget airline Ryanair has warned that the recovery in air travel is “very strong but still fragile,” as a jump in passenger numbers helped it return to profit.

Ryanair posted a pre-tax profit of €203m for April-June this morning, its first profit for this quarter since the Covid-19 pandemic began.

But chief executive Michael O’Leary has signalled that the autumn could bring fresh disruption, if new variants of the virus emerge.

O’Leary told shareholders this morning it was too soon to provide a meaningful profit guidance for the current financial year, given the uncertainty:

While we remain hopeful that the high rate of vaccinations in Europe will allow the airline and tourism industry to fully recover and finally put Covid behind us, we cannot ignore the risk of new Covid variants in Autumn 2022.

Our experience with Omicron last November, and the Ukraine invasion in February, shows how fragile the air travel market remains, and the strength of any recovery will be hugely dependent upon there being no adverse or unexpected developments over the remainder of FY23.

Several variants of the fast-spreading Omicron strain of Covid-19 have already been detected this year, leading to an increase in cases and hospitalisations in some countries.

Ryanair’s Q1 profit was a recovery on a €324.5m pre-tax loss a year ago, lifted by a strong recovery in traffic. Passenger numbers rose to 45.5m in the quarter, up from 8.1m in 2021 when travel restrictions were in place, and 9% more than pre-Covid.

But Easter bookings and fares were “badly damaged” by the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February, the airline adds, pushing average fares 4% below pre-Covid levels.

O’Leary says there are “clear signs” of pent-up demand, but people are bookings flights closer to their travel day than they did before Covid.

Striking a cautious note, O’Leary says this ‘later booking profile’, plus the lack of visibility over the outlook, volatile oil prices, and “potential Covid, geopolitical and supply chain” make it difficult to forecasting earnings this year.

We hope to be in a better position to do so at the half year results in November, but, as our experience with Omicron last November and Ukraine in February shows, any guidance is subject to a very rapid change from unexpected events which are well beyond our control during what remains a very strong but still fragile recovery.”

Also coming up today

Drivers face the risk of further delays as the summer getaway continues.

Port officials at Dover said yesterday that services were finally back to normal, following days of chaos and very lengthy queues.

Cars queue at the check-in at the Port of Dover in Kent yesterday.
Cars queue at the check-in at the Port of Dover in Kent yesterday. Photograph: Andrew Matthews/PA

Border and ferry staff worked “through the night” to clear the huge volumes of tourist and freight traffic, after a “critical incident” was declared last week.

The situation got back to normal by the early hours of Sunday morning, a port spokesman said, but drivers could face another busy day crossing the Channel.

The AA has warned that Folkestone has replaced Dover as Britain’s ‘hotspot of holiday hell’, as holidaymakers try to negotiate jams in the area and reach the Eurotunnel terminal.

After gains last week, the UK’s FTSE 100 index is set to open around 0.4% lower as economic slowdown worries continue to weigh on markets.

On the economic front, the CBI’s latest healthcheck on UK factories is released this morning, alongside German business confidence data and a survey of economic activity in the US.

Hundreds of dockworkers at one of Britain’s largest container ports in Liverpool will be balloted for strike action, in a dispute over pay and conditions.

The Unite union said last week that more than 500 dockworkers at MDHC Container Services, part of Peel Ports, in Liverpool would be asked to vote over industrial action after a 7% pay offer was deemed inadequate and workers were not given an agreed bonus.

The agenda

  • 9am BST: IFO survey of German business climate
  • 11am BST: CBI’s industrial trends report into UK manufacturing
  • 1.30pm BST: Chicago Fed National Activity Index

Updated

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