Russians are increasingly talking about “succession” after Vladimir Putin, western officials said on Thursday.
They believe that it is now less certain that he will stay in the Kremlin for the next decade, compared to a year ago, given his “catastrophic error of judgement” in launching his Ukraine war.
However, they doubt that there will be any movement on Putin being toppled or standing down “imminently”.
On the war, which was launched nearly a year ago, one western official said: “This is such a catastrophic error of judgement and this is harming both the present and future of Russia to such a degree that it has damaged President Putin.
“People are talking about succession in a way that they weren’t a year ago.
“But what there isn’t in a place like Russia is a clear pathway to change.”
Presidential elections are due to take place in March next year, which Putin, 70, would be expected to ensure he emerged as the winner.
His regime has clamped down hard on independent media in Russia, especially where there is criticism of the war.
Western officials also believe that changes to the Russian constitution unveiled in 2020 meant Putin was likely to be president “well into the 2030s” unless he was forced out of office due to ill health.
“Now, I can’t see that happening,” added one official.
“But when something happens is impossible to predict in a country like Russia.
“So, I’m afraid what we are seeing is this grinding war continue and not seeing at least for the moment him changing his ambition over Ukraine.”
While it was now “much less certain” that Putin will remain in the Kremlin for the next decade, this did not mean that there was “any change about to happen imminently”.
Putin, who took over as Russian leader more than 22 years ago, is also said to be continuing with strict rules to protect his health, including that people who are due to meet him go into Covid isolation restrictions for two weeks beforehand.
The US, Britain, Ukraine, France, Germany and other allies are fighting an information war against Moscow so comments from western officials should be treated with caution, but remain more trustworthy than propaganda and denials issued by the Kremlin - including that its military is not targeting civilians.
Russia unleashed another wave of missile strikes on Ukraine on Thursday as its troops sought to advance on multiple fronts in the east of the country.
However, it is not yet clear whether this is the full spring offensive planned by Putin.
“It’s quite clear that there has been a push has started,” said the western official.
“But the Ukrainians are holding them.
“So is this the start of a huge offensive, are they testing the fronts, defences, it’s probably too soon to tell.
“But you can make the case that it has started but I’m also hearing people saying ‘this really can’t be it..they must have a bit more than this’.
“So I think it will take a few days before it settles down perhaps and we can really see clearly.”
The US has reportedly advised Kyiv to hold back on any major counter-offensive until more modern heavy weapons arrive from the West.
Britain is seeking to supply 14 Challenger II tanks by the end of March, with Germany, Poland and other allies sending far more Leopard tanks.
More long-range missiles are also being supplied to Ukraine’s armed forces, which will allow them to target Russian depots and command centres deep behind the frontlines.
Putin’s invasion, launched on February 24 last year, has floundered from its start when his army failed in the aim to swiftly capture Kyiv.
His troops were forced to retreat from around the capital, and later from Kherson in the south, with the war settling down into a grinding, attritional conflict with huge losses on both sides in fighting over small areas of territory.
The US believes that up to 180,000 Russian military personnel have been killed or wounded since the invasion started, through, other estimates are lower.
Ukraine’s armed forces are thought to have suffered similar casualty levels, with more than 40,000 civilians also reportedly killed, often in indiscriminate Russian shelling and missile strikes.
Millions of people have been forced to flee their homes.
