Russian troops sent to Belarus for military exercises will remain in the country indefinitely, Belarus’s defence ministry has said, in a decision that will further fuel concerns Moscow is planning an imminent Ukraine invasion.
US television networks CBS and NBC reported on Sunday that US intelligence sources now believe Russian army generals have been given the go-ahead to invade Ukraine. The news came as Russian president Vladimir Putin held a 105-minute phone call with France’s Emmanuel Macron and agreed to continue diplomacy.
In Belarus, defence minister, Gen Viktor Khrenin, said Russian soldiers would stay after large-scale joint drills were completed on Sunday. He said the move was necessary because of the “escalation of the situation” in the Donbas, in the east of Ukraine.
The Kremlin had promised to remove its forces from Belarus once the 10-day exercise, which began on 10 February, ended. It has deployed what the Nato secretary general, Jens Stoltenberg, said was the largest concentration of soldiers and modern weapons in Belarus since the cold war.
They include 30,000 combat troops, elite Spetsnaz units, Su-35 fighter jets and S-400 missile defence systems. Russian forces are stationed close to the Belarus border and within striking distance of Kyiv, 160 miles (260km) away. The US and UK have warned Moscow is planning to attack the Ukrainian capital.
“In connection with the increase in military activity near the external borders of the Union State and the escalation of the situation in the Donbas, the Presidents of the Republic of Belarus and the Russian Federation decided to continue the joint inspection of response forces,” the statement by Belarus’s ministry of defence said.
As recently as Wednesday, Belarus’s foreign minister, Vladimir Makei, said “not a single” Russian soldier would remain in the country after the massive joint drills – a promise echoed by Russia’s foreign minister, Sergei Lavrov.
Vladimir Putin’s spokesperson, Dmitry Peskov, repeated his claim on Sunday that Russia had no plans to launch a military offensive. “We urge you to ask yourself the question: what is the point of Russia attacking anyone?” Peskov told the state-run Russia-1 TV.
Peskov added that Russia had “never attacked anyone throughout its history”. But he warned that “any spark, unplanned incident or minor planned provocation” in the Donbas region might lead to what he called “irreparable consequences”.
The troop announcement follows what Ukraine’s government says is a coordinated spike in violence in the east of the country, where Ukrainian soldiers and pro-Russian separatists face off across a 260-mile (421km) frontline. Since Thursday, Ukrainian positions have come under intense bombardment.
Ukraine’s joint forces command said that by 6pm local time on Sunday 57 artillery strikes had been launched against 13 Ukrainian-controlled villages and towns. It blamed the “provocative shelling” on Russia’s armed forces. Two Ukrainian soldiers have been killed since Saturday and five wounded, it added.
Separatists from the Luhansk People’s Republic (LPR) have claimed they are under Ukrainian attack. On Sunday, they said two civilians had been killed near the village of Pionerskoye. “Unfortunately, as a result of the aggression of the Kiev militants, two civilians died and five residential buildings were destroyed,” the LPR said.
Ukraine’s operational command dismissed the report as “an absolute fake” and said troops had been given orders to refrain from any “active action”. “We realise that the Russians are now looking for any excuse to invade,” it said, adding that it was closing several crossing points with rebel territory because of hostile fire.
Russia’s acting emergencies minister, Alexander Chupriyan, said on Sunday evening that more than 53,000 people from Donetsk and Luhansk had crossed into Russia since the territories announced an “evacuation” on Friday, claiming Ukraine was planning to attack – a claim Kyiv denies.
The Biden administration and Boris Johnson, among others, have said they believe Russia is behind a series of recent “false flag” events, designed to give Moscow a pretext to invade. They include a car bomb on Friday outside the separatist administration building in Donetsk, an “attack” on a water plant and a “shell” that landed across the border in Russia’s Rostov region.
In an interview with CBS news, Russia’s ambassador to the US, Anatoly Antonov, insisted Russian recognition of the separatist republics, considered a potential part of the scenario for Kremlin intervention, was not on the table.
“We are not trying to take any territory of foreign countries. I would like to confirm that Donbas and Luhansk is a part of Ukraine,” said Antonov.
The situation in Kyiv and other Ukrainian cities remained calm on Sunday. Demonstrators took to the streets of the Black Sea port city of Odessa, waving blue and yellow Ukrainian flags. They shouted slogans including “Glory to Ukraine” and “Putin is a prick”.
Марш єдності в Одеса. @radiosvoboda pic.twitter.com/zV7SFSPH28
— Michael Shtekel (@mishajedi) February 20, 2022
Meanwhile, the Dutch foreign ministry said it was moving its embassy from Kyiv to the western city of Lviv “due to security reasons”.
The US and UK have already moved their missions to Lviv, with other European countries following suit. The French ambassador in Kyiv said on Saturday he was staying put. Austrian Airlines, Swiss and SAS announced the suspension of flights to Ukraine on Sunday, joining Lufthansa and KLM who had previously stopped flying. Other airlines continue to fly into the country for now.
The political analyst Artyom Shraibman said the decision to keep Russian troops in Belarus was expected. He described Belarus’s president, Alexander Lukashenko, as “completely dependent” on what Putin wants. “Lukashenko is forced to dance to Putin’s tune,” he said.
He added: “Lukashenko won’t be happy that he is being used, but he will hope that Belarus might get something in return from Russia. Potentially a new credit or new weapons deal. The Belarusian leader doesn’t have any real allies left.
“This shows that Lukashenko is very vulnerable at the moment, he has to play along with Putin’s bigger games.”
