Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has so far been curiously uncoordinated, even haphazard, in its first four days – prompting fears that the Kremlin may adopt more brutal and deadly methods to achieve victory at a higher cost.
Military analysts have been surprised by what they see as repeated errors, perhaps reflecting Vladimir Putin’s mistaken belief that Ukrainians had an underlying affinity with Russia and would simply acquiesce in the fall of Volodymyr Zelenskiy once Moscow’s troops rolled in.
One expert, Prof Lawrence Freedman, posted on the topic in Sunday. “The first great surprise of this war”, he wrote, “lies in the failure of the Russian higher command to take advantage of their protracted military buildup to design and then implement an effective offensive.”
Early mistakes have included Russia’s dramatic helicopter landing of airborne forces at Hostomel military airport just north-west of Kyiv, far ahead of the prevailing invasion and without any meaningful air support. Four days of fighting in the area ensued, with Ukraine able to drive out Russian forces from the nearby Bucha and Irpin towns just outside the capital.
A similarly half-hearted attack took place on Sunday in the eastern city of Kharkiv, where there was an incursion of Russian spetsnaz commandos who, judging by the video reports, only used trucks and light armoured vehicles rather than tanks. It was beaten back by lunchtime, suggesting it was not a serious attempt at conquest.
Equally baffling to western observers has been Russia’s limited use of air power. It had been assumed that Moscow would aim to knock out Ukraine’s jets and helicopters on day one and establish air superiority. Justin Bronk, an air power analyst at the Royal United Services Institute thinktank, said: “I am quite surprised and confused by the lack of publicly available activity by the bulk of Russia’s fixed-wing aircraft.”
Although missile strikes on the first day are thought to have largely knocked out Ukraine’s long-range radar and its ageing S-300 air defence systems, a portion of its air force has remained active, perhaps 20 Mig-29s and a dozen Su-27 fast jets on Bronk’s estimate, flying low to avoid detection.
Even some of its dozen or so Turkish TB2 drones appear to remain, which should be easy prey for a nearby air defence system. A video, widely circulated by the Ukrainian military and considered by analysts to be genuine, showed what appeared to be a strike on a Russian convoy.
Such reverses have lifted Ukrainian morale. The country is now experiencing an extraordinary national mobilisation where people, mostly men, have queued to join up and others begun to make molotov cocktails to prepare for what may yet be fierce battles for control of the great cities. Even if Zelenskiy were to be captured or killed in a missile strike, the nation appears ready to fight on.
But these are also simply the opening salvoes of a war. For all the Russian missteps so far, Moscow’s larger forces have made steady progress elsewhere, sidestepping resistance where possible. Its principal invasion forces have headed to Kyiv, and on Sunday night, the city’s mayor, Vitali Klitschko, said in an interview, “Right now we are encircled”. This was later clarified by his press team who said Klitschko was speaking figuratively and that Kyiv wasn’t literally blocked.
Russian forces also appear to be gradually cutting off the south, east of Kherson, on the mouth of the Dnieper, with only an increasingly isolated Mariupol holding out. In other words, the Russian mistakes may have only obscured the underlying strength of its overall position.
Western nations have rushed to offer to send more weapons to Ukraine, notably Germany, which has ended its postwar hesitance over arms exports and offered to send 1,000 anti-tank weapons and 500 ground-to-air Stinger missiles. The question now will be whether they can get the supplies there by land, as Russia controls more key points of territory.
Analysts have been predicting that Russia would try to encircle Kyiv, a city of about 3 million people, for weeks – and try to use the FSB spy agency to deliver the city through a coup. So far, however, there has been little sign of a determined fifth column in the country, and it may well be the case that Putin will seek to take Kyiv by force.
The anxiety is that Putin may resort to urban warfare – grim combat where an attacker is considered to need an advantage of five to one to prevail. It is not clear how organised Kyiv’s defences are, given Zelenskiy’s last-minute mobilisation last week, but one way Russia could force a victory is to use weaponry indiscriminately, particularly if Putin is determined to gain a quick win in order to save face.
