Topline
A Russian invasion of Ukraine could happen “any day now,” though a diplomatic path forward remains, the U.S. national security adviser, Jake Sullivan, said Sunday as the White House increasingly warns of Russian military action.
Key Facts
Russia is now in the “window” of taking action in Ukraine, Sullivan said during an appearance on Fox News Sunday.
Sullivan continued, “Any day now Russia could take military action against Ukraine. . . Russia could choose to take the diplomatic path instead."
The comments come amid reports that the U.S. believes Russia has assembled 70% of the forces necessary for a full invasion of Ukraine with up to 50,000 civilian deaths possible, according to several outlets citing anonymous U.S. officials, though Dmitry Polyanskiy, Russia’s deputy ambassador to the United Nations, dismissed the U.S. intel as “madness and scaremongering” in a Sunday tweet.
Key Background
A Russian invasion could cause the Ukrainian capital of Kyiv to fall in as little as two days and leave up to five million refugees, according to the latest U.S. assessments seen by the Washington Post. Diplomatic negotiations remain tense between the U.S. and Russia, as the U.S. refuses to meet Russia’s core demand that Ukraine should be denied eligibility to join NATO, a decision that Russian President Vladimir Putin says will push Russia into “armed conflict.” The U.S. is sending an additional 3,000 troops to Eastern Europe in response to Russian threats of invading Ukraine, though the U.S. has “no intention” of deploying personnel in Ukraine, according to President Joe Biden.
Surprising Fact
The Biden Administration said Thursday U.S. intel believes Russia may be planning to use a staged video involving corpses and fake Ukrainian military equipment to depict an attack on Russian civilians and help justify an invasion.
Contra
Mykhailo Podolyak, an advisor to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, said Sunday morning Ukraine still sees a diplomatic solution as the most likely outcome, according to French news agency AFP: “An honest assessment of the situation suggests that the chance of finding a diplomatic solution for de-escalation is still substantially higher than the threat of further escalation.” Ukraine has repeatedly suggested the U.S. is exaggerating the Russian threat, and White House press secretary Jen Psaki said Wednesday the Biden Administration will no longer refer to a Russian attack as “imminent.”
Further Reading
What Does Russia Want With Ukraine? Tensions Between Putin and NATO Explained (Wall Street Journal)
U.S. Warns of Grim Toll if Putin Pursues Full Invasion of Ukraine (New York Times)
Russia Plans Fake Explosion Video To Justify Ukraine Invasion, U.S. Alleges (Forbes)
