Russia’s bombing raids across two conflicts in the past decade have overwhelmingly targeted built-up civilian areas, new analysis shows, with the vast majority of victims being classed as non-combatants.
The study of Russian airstrikes, missile and artillery bombardments covered both the conflicts in Syria and Ukraine since 2012, and reveals the Kremlin’s “blatant disregard for civilian protection“, according to the London-based research charity Action on Armed Violence (AOAV).
The organisation’s analysis, which has been provided to The Independent, found that 84 per cent of Russia’s targeted bombings in the last 10 years were aimed at densely-populated towns and cities. From these attacks, 98 per cent of the victims were classified as civilians.
Out of 15,391 casualties caused by Russian explosive weapons from 2012 to 2022, 12,114 were civilian casualties, according to the analysis.
It found that there were at least 1,477 reported incidents of Russia’s use of explosive weapons in populated areas, resulting in 11,014 civilian fatalities.
The charity says that the targeting of densely populated areas and public infrastructure during conflicts dramatically increases the challenge of rehabilitation for locals once the fighting subsides.
“Where armed conflict generates humanitarian crises, the use of explosive weapons in towns and cities compounds and prolongs them,” AOAV said.
The charity says it maintains data on explosive weapons use based on verifiable reports by reputable news sources. It monitors English-language media for such reports and includes data on factors such as date, time, location and weapon type, saying that while such analysis can never account for every single bombing or airstrike it provides useful information on various kinds of trends.
Russia’s tactics across the two countries are likely linked to its strategy of aligning forces with local proxies and mercenaries, the report said. It said the true extent of Russian-sanctioned explosive violence is probably much larger than captured in the analysis.
Russia formally entered the conflict in Syria on 30 September 2015 when launched what Vladimir Putin said was a fight against “international terrorism” at the request of president Bashar al-Assad. Indiscriminate bombings in the joint air campaign by Russian and Syrian warplanes since then, which target rebel resistance groups and Isis militants alike, have uprooted populations and destroyed hospitals and other public facilities.
AOAV has recorded 6,888 casualties in Syria from Russian weapons, out of which 4,179 or 61 per cent were civilians,
The worst affected Syrian cities by the Russian offensive were Idlib, where 52 per cent or 2,162 civilian casualties were recorded and Maarat al-Numan in Idlib province, which had 275 civilian casualties. Aleppo ranked fourth on the list with 182 civilian deaths.
While Russia launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine on 24 February 2022, the Kremlin’s engagement in the neighbouring country’s internal conflict dates back to at least 2014 when it annexed Crimea in eastern Ukraine.
Since then Russia has had long-standing ties with separatist groups in Donetsk and Luhansk, and Moscow has backed separatist violence in these regions.
AOAV recorded 8,503 casualties as a result of Russian bombings in Ukraine from 2012 to 2022, with 7,935 – or 93 per cent – of these being civilian deaths. Around 35 per cent of these were in Donetsk, the worst-affected region, followed by Kharkiv and Mariupol.
Last month, a UN commission found Putin’s forces committed violations that amount to war crimes in Ukraine, including bombings of civilian areas, numerous executions, torture and sexual violence.
Ukraine has accused Russian forces of leaving behind evidence of torture and large-scale war crimes in places where it has retreated, including mass graves in Bucha, Kharkiv and Kherson. Russia has denied the accusations and blamed Kyiv for the killings instead.
Russia has for its part criticised the US-led invasions of Iraq and Afghanistan, accusing America of aggravating humanitarian crises and entrenching regional instability.
AOAV’s report argues that “there is no comparison between the devastating footprint of Russian explosive violence abroad and that of the US”, as the world becomes increasingly outraged at Russia’s blatant and deliberate targeting of civilians and civilian infrastructure.
“When it comes to widespread aggravation and civilian harm, Russia is in no place to criticise anybody,” the report says.
Iain Overton, the charity’s executive director, said the evidence it had assessed is “overwhelming”.
“Russia’s military routinely targets civilian centres and the outcome of this, from Syria to Ukraine, is heartache and trauma,” Mr Overton said.
He said the international community, which is meeting on 18 November in Dublin to sign a political commitment to avoid the use of explosive weapons in populated areas, should use that opportunity to send a strong message to Russia.
That message, he said, should be to ask Russia to “end your abhorrent strategy or face the consequences”. “Human rights so abused have to be addressed,” he said.
