Energy experts say any attempts by Moscow to cut off European gas supplies are likely to backfire by fast-tracking the continent's shift away from fossil fuels towards renewable power.
But industry analysts have also warned that Europe faces potentially crippling economic pain in the short-term if Russia chooses to use energy as leverage in its war on Ukraine.
As Russia launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine yesterday, there were mounting concerns that Russian President Vladimir Putin could strangle the country's huge exports of oil and gas to Europe to further his aims.
Russia supplies about 40 per cent of Europe's gas demand through a network of pipelines that cross countries including Ukraine, while it also provides about a third of the bloc's oil.
After Germany scrapped approvals for a controversial Russian gas pipeline known as Nord Stream 2 in the wake of Moscow's aggression, former Russian president Dmitri Medvedev taunted Europe by warning of sky-high gas prices.
Emma Aisbett, a fellow at the Australian National University, said there was little doubt Europe was economically vulnerable to Russia because of its dependence on energy imports.
Short-term pain all but inevitable
Dr Aisbett said that reliance had only grown in recent years as European countries closed down their coal-fired power plants in a bid to reduce carbon emissions.
She said there was also likely to be "regret" about Germany's decision to phase out its nuclear reactors in the wake of the Fukushima disaster in 2011.
"Short-term, this will cause a great deal of pain particularly coming into the following winter if the effects last that long," Dr Aisbett said.
"In Germany, for example, they have the most expensive electricity in the world.
"Add to that very high gas prices and there will be real issues of energy poverty, particularly in those colder climates."
Saul Kavonic, an energy analyst at investment bank Credit Suisse, said the price pain awaiting Europe would depend on the events unfolding in Ukraine.
In a more "benign" scenario, Mr Kavonic said gas would continue to flow into Europe even if supplies through Ukraine were disrupted.
He said Europe would be able to manage such a situation by tapping stored gas and buying liquefied natural gas from overseas suppliers such as Qatar and the US.
'Unprecedented' prices in worst case
However, Mr Kavonic said a worst-case scenario in which Russia severed all gas supplies to Europe could have catastrophic consequences for business and households.
"In that scenario, you are looking at severe levels of demand destruction occurring across Europe," Mr Kavonic said.
"It would eat across industry use, but also potentially power generation and heating for people across Western Europe.
"That could also put a strain on the free flow of gas within countries in the European Union.
According to Mr Kavonic, international gas prices could reach "unprecedented" highs in the event of major disruption.
He said prices could potentially reach $100 per metric million British thermal unit, noting that prices of between $20 and $40/mmbtu had until recently been considered "unfathomable".
Perth USAsia Centre policy fellow James Bowen said the temptation to use oil and gas exports as an economic weapon would likely be irresistible to Russia.
Mr Bowen said Moscow had repeatedly shown a willingness in the past to step on the export hose to push its geopolitical agenda regardless of what "market fundamentals would entail".
He also questioned the extent to which Europe could turn to the US to provide so-called freedom gas exports, saying America simply did not have the capacity to replace Russian supplies and that it would be more expensive in any case.
Risks weighed against Russia
Mr Bowen said there were arguably bigger risks involved in the crisis for Russia, which would suffer short-term and profound longer-term costs.
"You have to look at the other side of the ledger as well," Mr Bowen said.
"They would take a very significant hit from [cutting Europe's gas supplies].
"Europe is going to have to suffer a little bit under this scenario, unfortunately.
"But to some extent it's well-timed.
"They're reaching the end of the winter heating period in Europe, they've got a bit of time on their hands if things do happen.
"Europe has been moving away from Russian gas, or looking to, for a long time … so if Russia does weaponise gas in this sense, it may be even further impetus for Europe to accelerate some of those changes that were already in place."
Mr Bowen said its belligerence against Ukraine would almost certainly accelerate efforts by Europe to wean itself off Russian hydrocarbons.
And unlike Europe, he said Russia would be left economically bereft because it had been "doubling down" on oil and gas investment.
"Energy, because it's so critical to the operations of economies, can be easily weaponised by authoritarian countries," he said.
Transition 'to be accelerated'
Dr Aisbett agreed, saying Russia had more to lose than Europe despite its apparent position of strength.
She suggested Moscow may even have been motivated to make a "land grab" in Ukraine by Europe's inevitable shift towards green energy sources independent of Russia.
She said while it would take years before Europe could gain its energy independence, that time frame was likely to have become significantly shorter because of Russia's actions.
Furthermore, she predicted the shift could have potential upsides for Australia, which could become a major energy supplier to Europe as it substituted gas with renewable sources such as batteries and hydrogen.
"Both coal and nuclear power are not actually very good at ramping up or down, so they're not really the ideal complement to high proportions of renewable energy," she said.
"Currently, it has been gas … which has led to, if anything, an increased dependence on Russia.
"There are two alternatives as we move towards a net-zero future.
"For the seconds- to hours-gaps, that's where batteries are the best way to firm up your grid supply.
