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For all the latest news on Russia’s war on Ukraine, see here.
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Volodymyr Zelenskiy has denied a suggestion from the Ukrainian military’s commander-in-chief that the war with Russia had reached a stalemate, and a senior spokesperson for his administration has rebuked the general in question and accused him of making “the aggressor’s job easier”.
Gen Valerii Zaluzhnyi had offered his blunt assessment of the situation in an interview published last week. “Just like in the first world war, we have reached the level of technology that puts us into a stalemate,” he told the Economist, adding: “There will most likely be no deep and beautiful breakthrough.”
Zaluzhnyi said the war had entered a phase of attritional fighting in which neither side would make much progress unless there was a technological breakthrough. He also suggested that Russia was slowly getting the upper hand thanks to its superior numbers.
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Sunday Summary
It’s almost 6pm in Kyiv and here are the day’s top headlines from Ukraine’s war against the Russian invasion.
Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelenskiy, said the cost of letting Russia win the war would be further conflict involving ground troops from Nato countries, as he urged US lawmakers on NBC’s Meet the Press to increase war funding.
Zelenskiy also urged former US president Donald Trump to visit Ukraine, where he said it would take minutes to show war-sceptic Trump his errors about the conflict.
Tensions simmered between the civilian and military wings of Ukraine’s leadership, as the president’s office publicly rebuked top military commander Valerii Zaluzhnyi for his comments the war was at a stalemate.
The office of Zelenskiy said Zaluzhnyi’s words were helpful to Russia, and stirred panic.
Volodymyr Zelenskiy said the war in Gaza was distracting focus from Ukraine’s war against Russia, as humanitarian, diplomatic and media attention shifts to the Middle East.
Russian casualties climbed to more than 305,000 dead or injured, Ukraine said, with the US estimating 120,000 Russian deaths and 180,000 injured in the invasion.
Ukraine’s Colonel Oleksandr Shtupun said Russian forces were following “cannon fodder” tactics, referring to fighting in the Tavria region.
Fake Russian propaganda linking the Gaza and Ukraine wars is spreading online, with a fabricated Israeli promotional video claiming to show Ukrainians fighting in Israel exposed by the news organisation Ukrinform.
Russia and Saudi Arabia confirmed they would be restricting the supply of crude oil until the end of 2023, in efforts to raise the price of oil worldwide.
The European Commission president, Ursula von der Leyen, said on Saturday that Ukraine had “made excellent progress” towards EU accession, as she visited Kyiv and affirmed EU support for Ukraine “for as long as it takes”.
That’s all from me, Jem Bartholomew in London, for today. Now over to my colleague Tom Ambrose. See you next time.
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Russian forces in the Tavria region are using “cannon fodder assaults”, said Colonel Oleksandr Shtupun, according to a report from the Ukrainian news organisation Ukrinform.
“Over the past day, the enemy launched eight airstrikes and 26 artillery barrages in the Tavria direction. There were also 42 combat clashes, most of which occurred near Marinka. It is worth noting that the enemy pursues the tactics of ‘cannon fodder assaults’ and keeps its equipment safe,” Shtupun said.
About 120,000 Russian forces have been killed and 180,000 injured, in the war so far, according to US estimates.
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Zelenskiy says cost of no more US aid is Russian war against Nato as he invites Trump to Ukraine
Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelenskiy, called for further US war funding – warning a Russian victory would spell war for US soldiers in Nato countries – and invited former US president Donald Trump to visit and see the conflict for himself, Reuters reports.
Zelenskiy said that if Russia were allowed to win the war in Ukraine it would not stop its aggression and become enboldened – and begin to attack Nato countries.
“If Russia will kill all of us, they will attack Nato countries and you will send your sons and daughters [to fight],” Zelenskiy said. Zelenskiy made the comments on NBC’s Meet the Press on Sunday.
Republicans in the US have become sceptical about further funding for Ukraine’s war effort. The US president, Joe Biden, has urged Congress to pass a $106bn supplemental spending bill for military spending. But Republicans in the House of Representatives instead passed a bill last week to provide $14.3bn in aid to Israel, but nothing new for Ukraine.
Trump, running again for president in 2024, has been critical of US support for Ukraine and claimed to be able to solve the war in 24 hours.
“If [Trump] can come here, I will need … 24 minutes to explain to President Trump that he can’t manage this war,” Zelenskiy said. “He can’t bring peace because of Putin.”
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Ukrinform exposes Russian propaganda hoax of Israel recruiting Ukrainian soldiers
Fake Russian propaganda about Ukrainian soldiers fighting for Israel in Gaza is spreading online.
That’s according to a report from the Ukrainian news organisation Ukrinform, which has exposed a fabricated Israel Defence Forces recruitment video.
The hoax, posted to YouTube, shows a soldier in Israeli uniform, with an overlaid sound track claiming he is a Ukrainian who has gone to fight for Israel for better pay and conditions. The news outlet reveals that the video is fake and is compiled from footage available online.
The piece of disinformation is a reminder of the global geopolitics that lie behind both wars, which have become proxies for conflict between the US and Russia.
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Russia has confirmed it will keep voluntarily cutting the supply of crude oil and petroleum product exports by 300,000 barrels a day until the end of 2023, the deputy prime minister, Alexander Novak, said.
Reuters has more details:
Russia has agreed to undertake two separate reductions in oil supply: in April it decided to cut crude output by 500,000 barrels per day (bpd) until the end of 2024, while in August it said it would reduce exports by 300,000 bpd until the end of this year.
“The additional voluntary cut is intended to strengthen the measures taken by Opec+ countries to maintain the stability and balance of oil markets,” Novak said. According to him, Russia will consider next month whether to deepen its voluntary export cuts or increase production.
Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia said it would continue its voluntary output cut of 1m barrels a day until the end of 2023, an official source at the ministry of energy said on Sunday.
The goal of restricting supply by Opec+ countries is to raise the price of oil worldwide, with Saudi Arabia using the money from energy sales for government spending. But western countries have argued the global economy needs lower oil prices to support growth.
In energy markets, the price for crude oil futures ticked up 0.47% on Sunday to $80.89 a barrel. Oil prices spiked in the early months after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, soaring to more than $120 a barrel in June last year, but have stabilised since then.
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When Ukrainian troops liberated the town of Yampil near Donetsk from Russian occupation last autumn, they found an asiatic black bear close to death in the ruins of an abandoned zoo.
Now the bear, named Yampil after its home town, will be rehomed in Five Sisters zoo in West Lothian, my colleague Roybn Vinter writes.
The Five Sisters zookeepers were pleased to find a healthy bear chomping merrily on a cucumber when they arrived at his temporary home at the Natuurhulpcentrum rescue centre in eastern Belgium – a world away from the videos they had seen of Yampil, dirty and concussed after a shell landed near his enclosure, being carried through the rubble on a tarpaulin by soldiers.
Garry Curran, the head of carnivores, said: “Bears can often suffer mental health problems after going through a traumatic experience, and so it was really important we understood Yampil and what to expect from him.
“Although he appeared a little nervous at first, he seems to have adapted surprisingly well and didn’t actually show any concerning stress-related behaviours. He seems to be a calm and gentle individual, which was reassuring for all of us.”
Read the full story here.
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The west can’t afford to waver over its support for Ukraine’s war against Russian aggression, the Observer writes in an editorial.
Recent events in the Middle East have drawn international political and media attention away from the war in Ukraine at what looks like a critical juncture. This is understandable but nonetheless alarming. The principal beneficiary of this loss of focus is Russia’s president, Vladimir Putin, who ordered an illegal, unprovoked full-scale invasion in February last year that has caused more than 27,000 civilian casualties and appalling destruction. The UN believes that the true casualty figure is “considerably higher”. Putin has been accused of war crimes by the international criminal court.
Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelenskiy, and his western backers were optimistic earlier this year that Russian ground forces, badly led and often poorly equipped, could be ejected from occupied territory in eastern and southern Ukraine. But a much anticipated counteroffensive, using tanks, missiles and other modern weapons supplied by Nato states, was delayed. When it finally began five months ago, progress was disappointing, obstructed by minefields and entrenched Russian defences. There was no breakthrough.
Ukrainian troops continue to fight with extraordinary courage and valour, but they risk exhaustion as a second winter of fighting looms. Estimates suggest that Moscow’s forces have sustained huge losses in recent battles. Yet it is evident that Putin and his generals care little for the lives of their young conscripts. That was a key criticism levelled by the Wagner mercenary chief, Yevgeny Prigozhin, whose temerity cost him his life. Instead, Putin is intensifying drone, artillery and missile attacks. Ukraine says it faced the biggest bombardment of the year last week. One aim is to destroy Ukraine’s already battered energy infrastructure as winter approaches, increasing pressure on civilians.
With Putin apparently intent on “victory”, whatever that means and whatever the cost, now is not the moment for the west to waver in its support for Ukraine.
Read the full piece here.
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Has Ukraine’s counteroffensive against the Russian invasion been successful?
That depends on the criteria of how you measure success.
Paul Poast, associate professor at the University of Chicago, has an interesting threat on X (formerly Twitter) exploring this question.
Poast argues that Ukraine’s counteroffensive was “a tactical fail, a strategic draw, [and] a political win”.
Has Ukraine's counteroffensive failed?
— Paul Poast (@ProfPaulPoast) November 5, 2023
The answer depends on whether you evaluate it tactically, strategically, or politically.
[THREAD] pic.twitter.com/67ydt9lZLS
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Ukraine has launched an investigation after Ukrainian soldiers were killed by a Russian missile strike at an awards ceremony, AFP reports.
The Ukrainian news organisation Ukrainska Pravda reported that more than 20 Ukrainian soldiers were killed in Zaporizhzhia on Friday. Ukrainian officials confirmed the strike but did not mention the number of casualties.
Russia “fired an Iskander-M missile at the personnel of the 128th Mountain Assault Brigade, killing the soldiers and causing injuries of varying severity to local residents,” the Ukrainian army said.
The defence minister, Rustem Umerov, called the incident a tragedy and ordered a full investigation. “We must make every effort to protect our people and give honest answers to the families and friends of the fallen soldiers,” he said.
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War in Gaza drawing focus from Russia's invasion of Ukraine, Zelenskiy says
Volodymyr Zelenskiy said the war in Gaza was distracting focus from the war against Russia.
“The war in the Middle East, this conflict takes away the focus,” Ukraine’s president said on Saturday.
The focus of humanitarian, diplomatic and media attention recently has shifted to the Israeli bombardment and troop advances in Gaza – leading to almost 9,500 casualties, according to the Hamas-run Gaza health ministry – after Hamas’s 7 October rampage in Israel killed about 1,400 people.
Zelenskiy’s comments come amid emerging scepticism about long-term funding for Ukraine’s war effort in some European countries and from Republicans in the US. Ukraine’s counteroffensive has failed to change the picture of the war and some politicians worry the conflict is at a stalemate. On Saturday, NBC reported, citing an unnamed US official, that western leaders including US and EU officials have discussed possible Ukraine-Russia peace negotiations.
But while visiting Kyiv on Saturday the European Commission president, Ursula von der Leyen, said the EU would stand by Ukraine “for as long as it takes”.
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Russian casualties climb to 305,000 dead or injured, Ukraine says
The war’s death toll continues to climb, with the general staff of Ukraine’s armed forces saying on Sunday there had been 990 casualties among Russian forces in the past 24 hours, taking Moscow’s total casualties – of dead and injured – in the war to 305,090.
According to US estimates, Russia has seen around 120,000 deaths and 180,000 injured.
Ukraine also says Russia has lost 5,284 tanks, 9,953 armoured fighting vehicles, 9,730 vehicles and fuel tanks, 7,375 artillery systems, 867 multiple launch rocket systems, 570 air defence systems, 322 planes, 324 helicopters, 5,534 drones, 20 ships and boats, and one submarine.
Ukraine’s figures could not be independently verified. But estimates of about 120,000 Russian forces killed are stark – by comparison, the US has recorded about 7,000 deaths to service members in the post-9/11 warzones of Iraq, Afghanistan, Pakistan and elsewhere, according to a tally from the Watson Institute at Brown University.
This blog entry was amended after previously stating 305,090 Russian troops killed. It should have said killed or injured.
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As the war grinds on, Russian forces this weekend attacked Ukraine in both Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts, the Kyiv Independent reports.
On Sunday morning, Russian troops launched a missile attack and “massive” artillery strike against Avdiivka in Donetsk oblast, according to the acting governor, Ihor Moroz, on Facebook.
Meanwhile, Russia launched 116 strikes – via artillery, drones and aircraft – against 19 Ukrainian settlements in Zaporizhzhia oblast over the past day, governor Yurii Malashko said on Facebook. Infrastructure and residential buildings were damaged but no casualties were reported.
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Zelenskiy's office rebukes top military commander for saying war at 'stalemate', saying it helped Russia and stirred 'panic'
A rift has emerged in Ukraine’s leadership, the New York Times is reporting, with President Volodymyr Zelenskiy’s office on Saturday chastising Ukraine’s top military commander, Valerii Zaluzhnyi.
Gen Zaluzhnyi said in the Economist that the war was at a stalemate – with Zelenskiy’s office saying the comments could help Russia.
More from the Times here:
It was a striking public rebuke that signaled an emerging rift between the military and civilian leadership at an already challenging time for Ukraine.
Speaking on national television, a deputy head of the office of the president, Ihor Zhovkva, said Gen. Valerii Zaluzhnyi’s assertion that the fight against Russia was deadlocked “eases the work of the aggressor,” adding that the comments stirred “panic” among Ukraine’s Western allies.
At the same time, Mr. Zelensky disputed the general’s characterization of the fighting. “Time has passed, people are tired, regardless of their status, and this is understandable,” he said at a news conference on Saturday, adding: “But this is not a stalemate, I emphasize this once again.”
The public censure of General Zaluzhnyi came a day after the president’s office replaced one of his deputies, the head of special operations forces, who after his firing said he had been blindsided by the dismissal. It was unclear whether General Zaluzhnyi, the overall commander of Ukraine’s forces, knew in advance of the planned dismissal.
The emerging fissure between the general and the president comes as Ukraine is struggling in its war effort, militarily and diplomatically. Its operations along the roughly 600-mile-long trench line have failed to produce any advances, while resulting in high casualties on both sides, and Ukraine is facing intensified Russian attacks in the East.
At the same time, skepticism about Ukraine aid has increased in some European capitals and among members of the Republican Party in the United States.
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Meanwhile, in Ukraine’s neighbour Moldova, voters go to polls today for mayoral elections – with the Moldovan president, Maia Sandu, accusing Russia of election meddling.
Moldova, an ex-Soviet state, is eager to join the European Union and leave Russia’s orbit. Reuters has more details on today’s elections.
Pro-European president Maia Sandu has denounced Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and accused Moscow of plotting to oust her in a coup. This week, she accused Russia of “buying” voters by funneling $5m to “criminal groups” led by fugitive businessman Ilan Shor in the last two months.
The election to pick 12,000 officials pits dozens of parties against each other, including Sandu’s ruling Party of Action and Solidarity (PAS) and the pro-Russian Revival party linked to Shor, who has been convicted in absentia for fraud.
On Friday, the Chance party, also associated with Shor, was barred from the vote on security grounds.
The national security service has accused Shor of helping funnel 1bn Moldovan lei ($55.60m) into Moldova to stage anti-government protests during the war in Ukraine and to “buy” voters.
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The Kyiv Independent is reporting that Ukrainian forces have destroyed a Russian “Pole-21” electronic warfare system, citing Ukrainian general Oleksandr Tarnavskyi, the commander of the Tavria Group fighting on the southern frontlines.
Tarnavskyi said the system was “designed to suppress satellite navigation channels” but did not provide further details.
For a war in which drones play a key role – not just in terms of reconnaissance for identifying enemy positions, but also as methods of attack themselves – electronic warfare is crucial for gaining the upper hand.
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Since the start of Russia’s largescale invasion last year, more than 20,000 people in Ukraine have lost limbs. AP has a piece on how some of them are coping with psychological trauma through Brazilian jiu-jitsu.
Nervous ahead of their first jiu-jitsu championship, the war veterans gathered in a group to share jokes and help each other tie the belts of their kimonos. Many of them had suffered severe battlefield injuries requiring amputations.
Now they were assembled to perform in the “para jiu jitsu” category at the Ukrainian national competition before hundreds of spectators on amphitheater-style benches in one of Kyiv’s sports complexes.
More than 20,000 people in Ukraine have lost limbs because of injuries since the start of Russia’s brutal war there, many of them soldiers. A handful of them have dealt with their psychological trauma by practicing a form of Brazilian jiu-jitsu.
“This gives us freedom. We don’t feel like we’re lacking anything,” said Artem Kuzmich, who started practicing jiu-jitsu classes after losing a leg on the battlefield in 2019.
You can read the full story here.
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Russia said on Sunday it had test-launched an intercontinental ballistic missile capable of carrying nuclear warheads from one of its submarines, AFP reports.
“The new nuclear-powered strategic missile submarine cruiser Emperor Alexander the Third has successfully launched the Bulava sea-based intercontinental ballistic missile,” the defence ministry said.
President Vladimir Putin attracted global criticism earlier this week when he revoked Russia’s ratification of the 1996 comprehensive nuclear test ban treaty.
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Dispatch from the frontline
“Some go to Crimea; I prefer Krynky.” For the Ukrainian humorist Ostap Vishnia, Crimea could keep its beaches and boulevards. Krynky, the village he favoured, is a rather less fashionable handful of houses interspersed with fruit trees on the east bank of the Dnipro, 70 miles north of Crimea.
These days, travel to Krynky is somewhat more fraught than it was for Vishnia. The Dnipro marks the frontline of the war with Russia in southern Ukraine. The two armies trade relentless artillery fire across the river. Ukraine controls the west bank. Russia controls the east. Or it did until two weeks ago, when a contingent of Ukrainian marines made land and seized positions along the waterfront. They fought their way into Krynky.
The marines’ prospects for holding their beachhead – let alone finding a way to bring over the armoured vehicles and heavy weapons that would be needed to push forward – looked slim. The Russians pummelled them from the air and mounted infantry counterattacks.
But the latest reports from Russian military bloggers say the Ukrainians are standing firm. They have even managed to resupply the units on the east bank via islands in the Dnipro.
“The situation in Krynky remains tense,” said a usually reliable Russian blogger called Rybar on Saturday night. The marines hold the centre of the settlement. “Despite the efforts of the Russian armed forces,” Rybar said, “it was not possible to clear the village.”
None of the security sources I’ve spoken to are predicting an imminent Ukrainian advance through the rest of the occupied Kherson region that lies beyond Krynky. The marines may yet be overrun. But the Russian failure to dislodge them so far has prompted fresh mutterings on Russian military channels about poor coordination and communication at the front. The latest Ukrainian visitors to Krynky might yet stay a little longer.
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Welcome and summary
Hello, welcome to our continuing coverage Ukraine’s war against Russia’s invasion.
Ukraine targeted a Russian shipyard in the Crimean city of Kerch with 15 cruise missiles. Saturday’s attack damaged one ship, according to Russia’s defence ministry.
President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said Kyiv’s increased ability to strike warships and diminish Russian surveillance options in the Black Sea had undermined Moscow’s war efforts and helped Ukraine to secure a shipping route to export its grain.
More on that in a moment, first here’s a summary of the day’s other main news.
Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelenskiy, reaffirmed his stance that this is not the time to negotiate with Russia, and he also denied that any western leaders were pressuring him to do so. Zelenskiy also rejected remarks by his own commander-in-chief that the war had reached a stalemate.
Talks are under way to outline what Ukraine might have to give up to secure a peace deal with Russia, US news channel NBC reported earlier, citing a senior US official and another former senior official who briefed the network about the tentative plans.
The European Commission president, Ursula von der Leyen, arrived in Kyiv on Saturday ahead of a report the EU is expected to present next week about Ukraine’s progress in its membership bid. She said the EU would stand by Ukraine “for as long as it takes” and that the country had made “excellent progress” towards EU accession.
Russian forces are now focused on capturing Avdiivka’s coking plant, according to the town’s mayor, Vitaliy Barabash. He said audio transmission intercepts had revealed that Moscow was seeking to secure it. UK intelligence suggests Russia has incurred heavy losses in its assault on the Donbas town.
Ukraine said it has filed criminal charges against Patriarch Kirill, the leader of the Russian Orthodox church, in absentia, for “justifying” Russia’s invasion. Moscow’s most influential spiritual leader, a fervent supporter of President Vladimir Putin, has called the war a historic battle against the “forces of evil”.
Zelenskiy appointed a new commander of the country’s special forces, a unit known for conducting military operations in Moscow-held territories, but the officer replaced in the shuffle said he had not been told why.
Ukraine’s newly appointed head of the defence industry says he is working tirelessly to increase local arms production and wants to turn the country into a weapons production hub for the west.
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Russia says one ship damaged after Ukrainian attack on shipyard
Ukraine rained 15 cruise missiles on Russia’s shipyard in the Crimean port city of Kerch on Saturday, damaging one ship, Russia’s defence ministry said, in an attack that could further undermine Moscow’s striking capabilities.
Thirteen of the missiles were destroyed in the air, while one hit a ship, the ministry said. It did not give the vessel’s name.
Ukraine’s top air force commander said one of the Russian navy’s most modern ships was stationed there.
“I hope another ship has followed the Moskva!” Mykola Oleshchuk, commander of Ukraine’s air force, said in a Telegram post, referring to the Russian Black Sea Fleet flagship sunk by Ukrainian missiles on 14 April 2022.
Sergei Aksyonov, the Russian-installed head of Crimea, said there were no casualties in the Saturday attack on the shipyard in Kerch in Crimea.
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