Closing summary
It’s nearly 9pm in Kyiv. Here’s where we stand:
Western allies appear to have retreated from supplying F-16 and other western fighter jets to Ukraine over the past 24 hours. Joe Biden, US president, when asked at the White House late on Monday if his country would provide F-16s, answered simply “no”, although he emphasised on Tuesday morning he would remain in discussions with Ukraine about its weapons requests.
The UK has also said supplying western jets was not practical. “These are sophisticated pieces of equipment,” a Downing St spokesperson said. “We do not think it is practical to send those jets into Ukraine.” They added that prime minister Rishi Sunak supports accelerating support for Ukraine after completing a review that a “prolonged stalemate” in the conflict would benefit Russia.
Volodymyr Zelenskiy’s most senior adviser suggested on Monday that Poland is willing to supply Ukraine with the F-16 fighters. Andriy Yermak said Ukraine had received “positive signals” from Warsaw in a Telegram posting, although Poland’s prime minister, Mateusz Morawiecki, was careful to stress his own country would only act in consultation with Nato allies.
Ukraine has said it will continue lobbying, arguing that the west had repeatedly said no to supplying weapons such as tanks before relenting over time. Oleksii Reznikov, the defence minister, said on a visit to Paris: “All types of assistance at the beginning went through the ‘no’ stage. This means ‘no’ as of today.”
Reznikov’s French counterpart, Sébastien Lecornu, reiterated there was “no taboo” on the supply of jets, echoing similar remarks made by Emmanuel Macron on Monday evening. France also said it would donate 12 Caesar howitzers to Ukraine after the summit between the two ministers. Lecornu said the pair discussed training Ukrainian pilots to fly French fighter jets but that no decision has yet been taken.
Ukraine expects to receive 120-140 tanks in a “first wave” of deliveries from a coalition of 12 countries, the foreign minister has said. Dmytro Kuleba added that the first tranche would include the German Leopard 2, the British Challenger 2 and the US M1 Abrams tanks, and that Ukraine was also “really counting” on supplies of French Leclerc tanks being agreed. The number of heavy tanks publicly pledged to Ukraine appears to be well short of the 321 that Vadym Omelchenko, Ukraine’s ambassador to France, stated last week.
Russian forces are preparing for a renewed attack on Ukraine imminently, most likely in the coming months, according to analysts. Citing western, Ukrainian and Russian sources, the US thinktank the Institute for the Study of War said Moscow was “preparing for an imminent offensive”, pointing to remarks by the Nato secretary general, Jens Stoltenberg, who said there were “no signs” that Vladimir Putin was “preparing for peace”.
Russian forces continued attacks on positions across the frontline near the eastern cities of Bakhmut and Donetsk. Moscow’s troops have been pounding Bakhmut in the Donbas for several months, but in recent days the invaders appeared to have opened up a new effort to gain ground around the village of Vuhledar, 30 miles south-west of Donetsk city. The situation in Bakhmut and Vuhledar was “very tough”, with both areas and other parts of the Donetsk region “under constant Russian attacks”, President Zelenskiy said.
Russian troops have probably developed its “probing attacks” around the towns of Pavlivka and Vuhledar into a more “concerted” assault, the UK’s ministry of defence said in its latest intelligence update. “Russian commanders are likely aiming to develop a new axis of advance into Ukrainian-held Donetsk oblast, and to divert Ukrainian forces from the heavily contested Bakhmut sector. There is a realistic possibility that Russia will continue to make local gains in the sector,” it said.
Belarus president, Alexander Lukashenko, has said his country is “already ready” to offer more assistance to Russia in its war against Ukraine. Speaking during a state visit to Zimbabwe, a fellow ally of Russia, Lukashenko did not specify what that help would entail. It comes as Belarus and Russia are conducting a week-long session of training for the joint command of their regional grouping of forces.
Military casualties on both sides in the war have totalled about 200,000, a western official has said, with a similar number killed and wounded on either side. A higher proportion of Russians had been killed however, the official added, because they have been on the offensive, meaning that “they’ve suffered more fatalities than the Ukrainians on balance”.
The US has accused Russia of not complying with its obligation under a nuclear arms control treaty by not allowing inspectors to visit its nuclear weapons sites. Russia’s “refusal” to allow inspections under the New Start treaty “prevents the United States from exercising important rights under the treaty and threatens the viability of US-Russian nuclear arms control”, a US state department spokesperson said.
US and UK rule out sending F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine
Western allies appear to have retreated from supplying F-16 and other western fighter jets to Ukraine over the past 24 hours, with the UK joining the US in quashing Kyiv’s hopes it could obtain the jets soon after the west agreed to send it tanks.
Joe Biden, US president, when asked at the White House late on Monday if his country would provide F-16s, answered simply “no”, although he emphasised on Tuesday morning he would remain in discussions with Ukraine about its weapons requests.
Later on Tuesday, the UK also said supplying western jets was not practical. “These are sophisticated pieces of equipment,” a Downing St spokesperson said. “We do not think it is practical to send those jets into Ukraine.”
Ukraine responded by saying it would continue lobbying, arguing that the west had repeatedly said no to supplying weapons such as tanks before relenting over time. Oleksii Reznikov, the defence minister, said on a visit to Paris:
All types of assistance at the beginning went through the ‘no’ stage. This means ‘no’ as of today.
His French counterpart, Sébastien Lecornu, reiterated there was “no taboo” on the supply of jets, echoing similar remarks made by Emmanuel Macron on Monday evening. France also said it would donate 12 Caesar howitzers to Ukraine after the summit between the two ministers.
Belarus and Russia are conducting a week-long session of training for the joint command of their regional grouping of forces, according to the Belarusian defence ministry.
The training is part of preparation for joint drills the two countries will hold in Russia in September, the ministry added in a statement.
The US has accused Russia of not complying with its obligation under a nuclear arms control treaty by not allowing inspectors to visit its nuclear weapons sites.
Under the 2010 New Start treaty, US and Russian inspectors can visit each other’s nuclear weapons sites. It is the last remaining arms control treaty in effect between the US and Russia, and its inspection and verification clauses are widely seen as vital in building mutual confidence and preventing nuclear miscalculation.
Russia’s “refusal” to allow inspections “prevents the United States from exercising important rights under the treaty and threatens the viability of US-Russian nuclear arms control”, a US state department spokesperson said today.
The spokesperson added that Moscow had a “clear path” for returning to compliance by allowing inspection activities, adding that the US remains ready to work with Russia to fully implement the treaty.
Mutual inspections under the treaty had been suspended as a health precaution since the start of the Covid pandemic, with talks between Moscow and Washington on resuming inspections due to take place last November in Egypt. Russia postponed them and neither side has set a new date for a meeting.
The Ukrainian presidential adviser, Mykhailo Podolyak, has urged western allies to provide more military support amid renewed calls from top Kyiv officials for fighter jets.
Podolyak posted to Twitter that some EU representatives “believe Ukraine shouldn’t be given weapons as the war will spread to Europe”. But, he said:
War is already in the center of Europe.
He also warned that if Ukraine does not get weapons the war will spread to the EU because Russia “won’t stop the expansion”.
Some EU states’ representatives believe 🇺🇦 shouldn’t be given weapons as the war will spread to Europe. But
— Михайло Подоляк (@Podolyak_M) January 31, 2023
1.War is already in the center of Europe & RF kills people in the most anti-human way.
2.If 🇺🇦 doesn’t get weapons war will spread to the EU as RF won’t stop the expansion.
Lukashenko: Belarus 'ready' to provide more help to Russia in Ukraine
Belarus president, Alexander Lukashenko, has said his country is “already ready” to offer more assistance to Russia in its war against Ukraine.
Speaking during a state visit to Zimbabwe, a fellow ally of Russia, Lukashenko stressed Russia does not need “any help” right now.
Asked whether he was under any obligation to step up support for Moscow over its invasion of Ukraine, he added:
If our Russian brothers need help, we are always ready to offer such assistance.
He did not specify what that help would entail.
Lukashenko, a close ally of his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin, was visiting the southern African country to cement economic and political ties between Belarus and Zimbabwe.
The two countries cooperate closely, especially in agriculture, and Lukashenko on Tuesday offered Zimbabwe more tractors, combine harvesters and trucks. Zimbabwe has not publicly condemned Russia for invading Ukraine.
Belarus has not commited any of its troops to the war in Ukraine, but it has allowed Russia to stage part of its invasion from its territory last February and has also been a launching pad for Russian missiles into Ukraine.
Russia and Belarus engaged in joint military exercises on Belarusian territory earlier this month.
Updated
On the outskirts of Tournai, a sleepy medieval town in the gentle, Brueghelian landscape of the French-speaking part of Belgium, there is an unassuming grey hangar, barely hidden behind a fence. Inside are rows upon rows of German-made Leopard 1 tanks and other heavy fighting vehicles – some of the same types of weapons that top Ukraine’s military wishlist.
The hangar belongs to the Belgium defence company OIP and contains one of the biggest privately owned reserves of weapons in Europe. “Many of these tanks have been sitting here for years. Hopefully, now it is the time they finally see some action in Ukraine,” said Freddy Versluys, the head of OIP, as he toured the hangar.
“Here we have the 50 Leopard 1s,” he said, pointing.
We also have 38 German Gepard tanks, 112 Austrian SK-105 light tanks, and 100 Italian VCC2 and 70 M113 armour carriers.
In total, his firm has about 500 armoured vehicles in stock, “probably the widest private arsenal of tanks in Europe,” according to Versluys, who has a long history in the military sector.
After completing his military service, Versluys spent nine years working for the Belgian army in a division that was responsible for the quality control of tanks and ammunition. In 1989 he joined OIP, a firm that specialised in optical equipment, where he eventually set up OIP Land Systems, a subsidiary company that bought up old military equipment, banking that one day there would be a demand for it again.
“Everything we do is legal here, we go by the books and have all the licences needed,” he said, shrugging at the “arms dealer” label.
Summary of the day so far
It’s 6pm in Kyiv. Here’s where we stand:
Military casualties on both sides in the war have totalled about 200,000, a western official has said, with a similar number killed and wounded on either side. A higher proportion of Russians had been killed however, the official added, because they have been on the offensive, meaning that “they’ve suffered more fatalities than the Ukrainians on balance”.
Russian forces are preparing for a renewed attack on Ukraine imminently, most likely in the coming months, according to analysts. Citing western, Ukrainian and Russian sources, the US thinktank the Institute for the Study of War said Moscow was “preparing for an imminent offensive”, pointing to remarks by the Nato secretary general, Jens Stoltenberg, who said there were “no signs” that Vladimir Putin was “preparing for peace”.
Russian forces continued attacks on positions across the frontline near the eastern cities of Bakhmut and Donetsk. Moscow’s troops have been pounding Bakhmut in the Donbas for several months, but in recent days the invaders appeared to have opened up a new effort to gain ground around the village of Vuhledar, 30 miles south-west of Donetsk city. The situation in Bakhmut and Vuhledar was “very tough”, with both areas and other parts of the Donetsk region “under constant Russian attacks”, President Zelenskiy said.
Russian troops have probably developed its “probing attacks” around the towns of Pavlivka and Vuhledar into a more “concerted” assault, the UK’s ministry of defence said in its latest intelligence update. “Russian commanders are likely aiming to develop a new axis of advance into Ukrainian-held Donetsk oblast, and to divert Ukrainian forces from the heavily contested Bakhmut sector. There is a realistic possibility that Russia will continue to make local gains in the sector,” it said.
Ukraine expects to receive 120-140 tanks in a “first wave” of deliveries from a coalition of 12 countries, the foreign minister has said. Dmytro Kuleba added that the first tranche would include the German Leopard 2, the British Challenger 2 and the US M1 Abrams tanks, and that Ukraine was also “really counting” on supplies of French Leclerc tanks being agreed. The number of heavy tanks publicly pledged to Ukraine appears to be well short of the 321 that Vadym Omelchenko, Ukraine’s ambassador to France, stated last week.
Joe Biden said the US would not supply F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine, a significant and potentially terminal setback to Kyiv’s campaign to obtain the fast jets that had been rapidly gaining momentum. The US president, when asked at the White House if his country would provide F-16s, answered simply “no”, days after national security officials had said Washington would be discussing the issue “very carefully” with allies.
Volodymyr Zelenskiy’s most senior adviser has suggested Poland is willing to supply Ukraine with the F-16 fighters. Andriy Yermak said Ukraine had received “positive signals” from Warsaw in a Telegram posting, although Poland’s prime minister, Mateusz Morawiecki, was careful to stress his own country would only act in consultation with Nato allies.
France will send 12 additional Caesar howitzers to Ukraine, the defence minister Sébastien Lecornu has said. Speaking after meeting with his Ukrainian counterpart Oleksiy Reznikov in Paris, Lecornu said the pair discussed training Ukrainian pilots to fly French fighter jets but that no decision has yet been taken. France would also send 150 army staff to Poland to train up to 600 Ukrainian soldiers a month there, he added.
The UK’s prime minister, Rishi Sunak, supports accelerating support for Ukraine after completing a review that a “prolonged stalemate” in the conflict would benefit Russia. A No 10 spokesperson added that it would not be “practical” for the UK to send its fighter jets to Ukraine, as Britain’s Typhoon and F35 fighter jets “are extremely sophisticated and take months to learn how to fly”.
Nato chief Jens Stoltenberg and Japan’s premier Fumio Kishida pledged on Tuesday to strengthen ties, saying Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and its growing military cooperation with China had created the most tense security environment since the second world war. The comments came after Stoltenberg visited South Korea where he urged Seoul to increase military support to Ukraine and gave similar warnings about rising tension with China.
Ukraine’s foreign ministry criticised the president of Croatia, Zoran Milanović, for saying Crimea would never return to Ukrainian control, describing his comment as “unacceptable”. On Monday, in remarks detailing his objection to Zagreb providing military aid to Kyiv, Milanović said it was “clear that Crimea will never again be part of Ukraine”.
Hello everyone, it’s Léonie Chao-Fong still here with all the latest from Ukraine. I’m on Twitter or you can email me.
Updated
France to send 12 additional Caesar howitzers to Ukraine
France will send 12 additional Caesar howitzers to Ukraine, the defence minister, Sébastien Lecornu, has said.
Speaking after meeting with his Ukrainian counterpart Oleksiy Reznikov in Paris, Lecornu said the pair discussed training Ukrainian pilots to fly French fighter jets but no decision has yet been taken.
He reiterated that France’s position on supplying arms to Kyiv was that the weapons be used only by Ukraine to defend itself. Paris has already delivered 18 Caesar howitzers to Kyiv.
France would also be sending 150 army staff to Poland to train up to 600 Ukrainian soldiers a month there, he added.
He also said “there is no taboo” when asked about supplying fighter jets to Ukraine.
Updated
Military casualties on both sides in war total around 200,000 – western official
A Western official said in a briefing that military casualties on both sides in the war totalled about 200,000 - with a similar number killed and wounded on either side. A higher proportion of Russians had been killed however, the official added, because they had been on the offensive, meaning that “they’ve suffered more fatalities than the Ukrainians on balance”.
The general staff of Ukraine’s armed forces, in its latest update, claimed to have killed about 127,500 members of pro-Russian forces.
Russia has not yet started a major offensive despite increased attacks in the eastern Donbas over the past week, but it is engaged in a lesser effort that is able to make “no more than tactical gains”, the official added. Ukraine’s loss of Soledar was a “pyrrhic victory” in which it incurred “several thousand casualties” to “secure a ruined town with no more than 500 inhabitants remaining”.
The official, speaking on condition of anonymity, believed there was a military deadlock at present – with the war likely to last throughout 2023. When each side’s positives and negatives were stacked up, the official said, “you end up in some sort of grinding conflict”, meaning there would need to be a change on either side for there to be a breakthrough.
For Russia to break through, the official said, it would need to launch a fresh round of mobilisation on top of the 300,000 the Kremlin forcibly recruited last year – while Ukraine would have to rely on further weapons supply from the west coupled with its tactical innovation on the battlefield.
Confirmed tank donations include 31 Abrams tanks from the US, plus 14 Leopard 2s from Germany and Poland plus 14 Challenger 2s from the UK and 4 more from Canada, a total of 77. The Netherlands has said it could send up 18 Leopard 2s it leases from Germany and Norway up to eight, taking the figure to about 100, with Finland, Denmark and Spain all promising to send an unspecified number.
Earlier today, the foreign minister, Dmytro Kuleba, said Kyiv expected 120-140 western tanks in a “first wave” of deliveries.
Updated
My colleague Dan Sabbagh, our defence and security editor, writes about the number of tanks pledged to Ukraine in a thread on Twitter.
He tweets: “Western officials said Ukraine has received tank pledges that ‘exceed the 300 mark’ based on public statements from Ukrainian officials. Public pledges are far lower, however, and the only public statement I can immediately see is from Ukraine’s ambassador to France. Last Friday Vadym Omelchenko told BFM television that 321 heavy tanks had been pledged. Might he be included Bradley and Marder fighting vehicles as well?”
Sabbagh then breaks down the tanks that have been pledged in public, saying it “looks well short of 300 though”.
🇵🇱 14 Leopard 2, plus 60 'modernised' tanks
— Dan Sabbagh (@dansabbagh) January 31, 2023
🇺🇸 31 M1A1 Abrams
🇳🇱 up to 18 Leopard 2
🇩🇪 14 Leopard 2
🇬🇧 14 Challenger 2
🇳🇴 up to 8 Leopard 2
plus 🇫🇮 🇪🇸 and 🇩🇰
looks well short of 300 though
Updated
Reuters is carrying a little more detail on Ukraine’s foreign minister, Dmytro Kuleba, saying that Kyiv expected 120 to 140 western tanks in a “first wave” of deliveries. [See 13.08 GMT]
Kuleba said that the first tranche would include the German Leopard 2, the British Challenger 2 and the US M1 Abrams tanks, and that Ukraine was also “really counting” on supplies of French Leclerc tanks being agreed.
Kuleba said Kyiv was working behind the scenes to win over more countries to supply tanks at what officials say is a critical time in the war.
“We continue to work on both expanding the membership of the tank coalition and increasing the contributions of those already pledged,” he said.
Kyiv plans to launch a major counteroffensive to recapture swathes of territory taken by Russia in the south and east of the country, but is concerned that Russia could launch its own major offensive in the coming weeks or months.
Updated
Updated
A former commander of Russia’s Wagner mercenary group who is seeking asylum in Norway has apologised to Ukrainians living in the country who object to his presence there.
Andrey Medvedev fled his unit and crossed the border into Norway near the Pasvikdalen valley, where he was arrested and detained by border guards. He is the first known soldier from the Wagner group who fought in Ukraine to flee abroad.
Speaking to Norwegian broadcaster NRK and reported by AP, Medvedev said:
I’m a scoundrel to you, but I only ask you to take into account that I have come to realise that, albeit belatedly, and I spoke against all that.
He added:
I ask you not to condemn me, and in any case I apologise.
In an interview conducted in December with the Guardian, Medvedev spoke of how he feared for his life and said he had witnessed the summary killing of Wagner fighters accused by their own commanders of disobeying orders, sometimes in pairs.
He is currently living in a centre for asylum seekers in Oslo.
Updated
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has helped “open eyes” to the idea of reforming England’s increasingly draconian libel and privacy laws, according to one of the country’s leading media advocates.
Geoffrey Robertson KC, author of Lawfare, a new book on efforts by the rich and powerful to suppress free speech, said the war revealed the cynical way wealthy Russians – and others – have exploited the English legal system.
The unprovoked invasion ordered by the Kremlin last February has, the barrister said, “brought up the way in which oligarchs, as rich people, have been able to intimidate British journalists and British publishers” in costly libel actions. “Eyes are opening,” he said in an interview with the Guardian.
Robertson highlighted the case of Yevgeny Prigozhin, who acknowledged he was the founder and boss of the Wagner mercenary group in September, but who, until May, was suing the investigative journalist Eliot Higgins in London for tweeting articles linking the Russian oligarch to the same paramilitary organisation.
Last week it emerged that British lawyers acting for Prigozhin, who had been put under sanctions by the UK in October 2020, were given special dispensation by the Treasury to bring the lawsuit against Higgins personally, and for two lawyers to spend £4,000 in travelling to St Petersburg to take instructions.
Robertson said:
It’s, in my view, ironic and ridiculous that the UK’s Sanctions Act permits oligarchs who are sanctioned for their human rights abuses, and therefore have no reputation, you would think, [to] bring in money to pay their lawyers to repair their reputation that they don’t have.
The barrister also criticised the soaring costs of defending libel cases in London – Higgins said last week his costs in defending himself against Prigozhin were £70,000. “Britain is not a land of free speech but expensive speech,” Robertson said.
Updated
Ukraine to receive up to 140 tanks in ‘first wave’ of deliveries, says Kuleba
Ukraine’s foreign minister, Dmytro Kuleba, has said Kyiv expects to receive 120 to 140 tanks in a “first wave” of deliveries from a coalition of 12 countries.
A group of western countries pledged last week to supply modern-made main battle tanks to Ukraine, after Germany confirmed it would send Leopard 2 tanks and the US said it would supply Kyiv with M1 Abrams tanks.
Speaking in an online briefing, Kuleba said:
The tank coalition now has 12 members. I can note that in the first wave of contributions, the Ukrainian armed forces will receive between 120 and 140 western-model tanks.
Countries such as Poland and Finland have already indicated publicly that they are willing to provide a number of their Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine. Spain, the Netherlands and Denmark have also said they are open to sending their German-made tanks.
Air raid alerts have been reported across Ukraine for a third time today, according to Euromaidan Press.
It's the third air raid alert all across Ukraine today. pic.twitter.com/HIXagBKmyc
— Euromaidan Press (@EuromaidanPress) January 31, 2023
Boris Johnson is in Washington this week to meet Republican lawmakers as he presses the US to sustain support to Ukraine.
The former UK prime minister is scheduled to speak at a private Republican club on Tuesday evening and to meet a group of Republican senators, Reuters reports, citing US lawmakers.
He will discuss the need for “western unity and support for Ukraine and what more can be done against the threat Russia poses” at the Atlantic Council thinktank on Wednesday.
In an opinion piece for the Washington Post published yesterday, Johnson called on Ukrainians to be “given everything they need to finish this war, as quickly as possible” and for its admission to the Nato alliance.
Johnson wrote:
If we had been brave and consistent enough to bring Ukraine into Nato – if we had actually meant what we said – then this utter catastrophe would have been averted.
Updated
UK accelerating support for Ukraine because ‘prolonged stalemate would only benefit Russia’
The UK’s prime minister, Rishi Sunak, supports accelerating support for Ukraine after completing a review that a “prolonged stalemate” in the conflict would benefit Russia.
In a statement after today’s Cabinet meeting, reported by PA media, a No 10 spokesperson said:
He said since becoming prime minister he had reviewed the UK’s approach and concluded that a prolonged stalemate in the conflict would only benefit Russia. Which was why he had decided there was an opportunity to accelerate UK support working closely with our allies to give Ukraine the best chance of success and make the most of the window of opportunity where Russian forces were on the back foot. He said the new strategy would also see greater diplomatic efforts and planning work with the Ukrainian on how to rebuild once the conflict had ended.
The spokesperson also said it would not be “practical” for the UK to send its fighter jets to Ukraine, as Kyiv campaigns to obtain the jets to build up a fighting force to break through the Russian lines in the spring.
They said:
The UK’s Typhoon and F35 fighter jets are extremely sophisticated and take months to learn how to fly, given that we believe it is not practical to send those jets into Ukraine.
They added:
It is the length of time it takes to learn how to use what are very complex pieces of equipment that is the limiting factor in this case but we will explore what more we can do to support Ukraine.
The UK will “continue to discuss with our allies about what we think what is the right approach”, they added.
Updated
Russia’s deputy foreign minister, Sergei Ryabkov, and the US’s new ambassador to Moscow, Lynne Tracy, held a meeting today where they discussed arms control issues, according to the Russian foreign ministry.
The pair “discussed some pressing issues of arms control at the meeting”, it said.
This was Ryabkov’s second meeting with Tracy since she assumed the position of US ambassador to Moscow, the state-run Tass news agency reported. The pair also met yesterday when Tracy entered the foreign ministry to present copies of her diplomatic credentials.
The Russian state-owned Ria Novosti news agency reported that Ryabkov told Tracy on Monday that he expected her to follow the principle of not interfering in Russia’s internal affairs.
Updated
The International Olympic Committee (IOC) has said it rejects “defamatory statements” by Ukraine’s presidential adviser, Mykhailo Podolyak, who accused the committee of being a “promoter of war, murder and destruction” after the committee said it would consider ways for Russian athletes to compete in the 2024 Paris Olympics.
The IOC was offering Russia “a platform to promote genocide & encourages their further killings”, Podolyak posted to Twitter on Monday.
#IOC is a promoter of war, murder & destruction. The IOC watches with pleasure RF destroying 🇺🇦 & then offers 🇷🇺 a platform to promote genocide & encourages their further killings.
— Михайло Подоляк (@Podolyak_M) January 30, 2023
Obviously ru-money that buys Olympic hypocrisy doesn’t have a smell of 🇺🇦 blood. Right, Mr. #Bach?
His remarks came after the IOC said it was continuing to work on a pathway which would enable Russian and Belarusian athletes to compete as neutrals, a move that has been criticised by the British government.
Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelenskiy, has said allowing Russia to compete at the 2024 Paris Games was tantamount to showing that “terror is somehow acceptable”, adding:
As if you could shut your eyes to what Russia is doing in Kherson, Kharkiv, Bakhmut and Avdiivka.
Responding to Podolyak’s tweet, an IOC spokesperson said:
The IOC rejects in the strongest possible terms this and other defamatory statements. They cannot serve as a basis for any constructive discussion.
Russia preparing for ‘imminent’ offensive in Ukraine, says thinktank
Russian forces are preparing for a renewed attack on Ukraine imminently, with the most likely course of action being an offensive in the coming months, according to analysts.
Citing western, Ukrainian and Russian sources, the US thinktank the Institute for the Study of War writes that Moscow is “preparing for an imminent offensive”.
In its latest update posted last night, it points to remarks by the Nato secretary general, Jens Stoltenberg, who said there were “no signs” that Vladimir Putin was “preparing for peace”.
Speaking in South Korea on Monday, Stoltenberg said:
We see the opposite. We see that [the Russians] are preparing for more war, that they are mobilising more soldiers, more than 200,000, and potentially even more than that. That they are actively acquiring new weapons, more ammunition, ramping up their own production, but also acquiring more weapons from other authoritarian states like Iran and North Korea.
The ISW also notes that a Ukrainian military chief, Ivan Tymochko, stated that Russian forces were strengthening their grouping in Donbas as part of an anticipated offensive. It also cited him as saying that Russian forces would need to launch an offensive due to increasing domestic pressure for victory.
The update continues:
Stoltenberg’s and Tymochko’s statements support ISW’s previous forecast that Russian forces are setting conditions to launch an offensive effort, likely in Luhansk oblast, in the coming months.
Hello everyone. It’s Léonie Chao-Fong here again, taking over the live blog from Martin Belam to bring you the latest from the Russia-Ukraine war. Feel free to get in touch on Twitter or via email.
Updated
Summary of the day so far …
The United States would not provide the F-16 fighter jets that Ukraine was seeking in its fight against Russia, President Joe Biden said on Monday, as Russian forces claimed a series of incremental gains in the country’s east.
Volodymyr Zelenskiy’s most senior adviser has suggested Poland is willing to supply Ukraine with the F-16 fighters. Andriy Yermak said Ukraine had received “positive signals” from Warsaw in a Telegram posting, although Poland’s prime minister, Mateusz Morawiecki, was careful to stress his own country would only act in consultation with Nato allies.
Russian forces continued attacks on positions across the frontline near the eastern cities of Bakhmut and Donetsk. Moscow’s troops have been pounding Bakhmut in the Donbas for several months, but in recent days the invaders appeared to have opened up a new effort to gain ground around the village of Vuhledar, 30 miles south-west of Donetsk city.
The situation in Bakhmut and Vuhledar was “very tough”, with both areas and other parts of the Donetsk region “under constant Russian attacks”, Zelenskiy said.
Nato chief Jens Stoltenberg and Japan’s premier Fumio Kishida pledged on Tuesday to strengthen ties, saying Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and its growing military cooperation with China had created the most tense security environment since the second world war.
A Russian court has fined the streaming service Twitch 4m roubles (£46,200/$57,000) for failing to remove what it said were “fakes” about Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
Dmitry Medvedev, a longtime ally of Vladimir Putin and deputy chair of the security council of Russia, has boasted that sanctions are having little effect on the Russian economy.
Ukraine’s foreign ministry criticised the president of Croatia, Zoran Milanović, for saying Crimea would never return to Ukrainian control, describing his comment as “unacceptable”. On Monday, in remarks detailing his objection to Zagreb providing military aid to Kyiv, Milanović said it was “clear that Crimea will never again be part of Ukraine”.
Russia and Belarus have started a week-long session of staff training for the joint command of their regional grouping of forces, the Belarusian defence ministry has said.
That is it from me, Martin Belam, for now. I will be back with you later. Léonie Chao-Fong will be here with you shortly to continue our live coverage.
Updated
Dmitry Medvedev, a longtime ally of Vladimir Putin and deputy chair of the security council of Russia, has boasted that sanctions are having little effect on the Russian economy. On Telegram he wrote:
Enemy countries do not have the courage to admit that their “hellish” sanctions have failed miserably. Do not work. The vast majority of industrial products and consumer goods were replaced by our own, Russian, and the missing ones – by Asian brands. Parallel imports also work, from which we get the same western brands, and their owners get nothing. So everything is as always: the Americans make money on a humiliated Europe. Crushed Europe endures and loses money. At the same time, even the IMF predicts economic growth in Russia this year.
Medvedev went on to say that Russia would continue to use western intellectual property “without any licences and payment of royalties … for everything from movies to industrial software”.
He then offered praise to those who have pirated software, writing “thanks to those who have developed various programs for the unlicensed use of their expensive intellectual products” and deployed an animated laughing troll emoji as part of the message.
Medvedev has previously been both president and prime minister of Russia.
Updated
Here are some of the latest images to have been sent to us over the news wires from Ukraine.
Suspilne, Ukraine’s state broadcaster, reports on Telegram that its correspondents in Kherson have again heard explosions.
The Nato chief Jens Stoltenberg and Japanese premier Fumio Kishida pledged on Tuesday to strengthen ties, saying Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and its growing military cooperation with China had created the most tense security environment since the second world war.
The comments came in a statement issued during Stoltenberg’s trip to Japan after a visit to South Korea on which he urged Seoul to increase military support to Ukraine and gave similar warnings about rising tension with China.
“The world is at a historical inflection point in the most severe and complex security environment since the end of the second world war,” the two leaders said in the statement.
It also raised concerns about Russia’s nuclear threats, joint military drills between Russia and China near Japan, and North Korea’s development of nuclear weapons.
Stoltenberg told reporters a Russian victory in Ukraine would embolden China at a time when it was building up its military, “bullying its neighbours and threatening Taiwan”.
Reuters reports he added: “This war is not just a European crisis, but the challenge to the world order.”
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A Russian court has fined the streaming service Twitch 4m roubles (£46,200/$57,000) for failing to remove what it said were “fakes” about Russia’s military campaign in Ukraine, the Interfax news agency reports.
Twitch, which is owned by Amazon, did not immediately respond to a request from Reuters for comment.
Moscow has long objected to foreign tech platforms’ distribution of content that it deems to fall foul of its restrictions, with Russian courts regularly imposing penalties.
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Reuters has a quick snap that Germany’s energy regulator has said the country has sufficient gas supplies for this winter, but must start preparing for the winter of 2023-24.
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Ukraine’s foreign ministry criticised the Croatian president, Zoran Milanović, on Tuesday for saying Crimea would never return to Ukrainian control, describing his comment as “unacceptable”.
In remarks last night detailing his objection to Zagreb providing military aid to Kyiv, Milanović said it was “clear that Crimea will never again be part of Ukraine”. [See 7.20 GMT]
“We consider as unacceptable the statements of the president of Croatia, who effectively cast doubt on the territorial integrity of Ukraine,” Reuters reports Ukrainian foreign ministry spokesperson Oleg Nikolenko wrote on Facebook.
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The leader of the We Are Together with Russia group in Ukraine’s occupied Zaporizhzhia region, Vladimir Rogov, has posted to Telegram to claim that last night pro-Russian forces repulsed an attempt by Ukrainian forces to break through in the region. He wrote:
Zaporizhzhia front: a night attempt to break through the special group of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Our scouts, using a Mavic quadcopter with a thermal imager, detected the movement of Ukrainian special forces on the front line at night.
The enemy group was promptly hit by artillery. Only one enemy saboteur got up and fled after being covered by an automatic grenade launcher.
The claims have not been independently verified.
Russia’s foreign ministry has said that President Vladimir Putin spoke with Saudi Arabia’s Prince Mohammed bin Salman in a telephone call.
In a readout of the call, the foreign ministry stated: “Further development of bilateral cooperation in the political, trade, economic and energy sectors, as well as cooperation within the Opec Plus group to provide the stability of global oil market were discussed.”
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Ukraine’s state broadcaster Suspilne offers this summary of events of the last 24 hours in its Telegram bulletin today. It writes:
At night, Russian troops shelled the Nikopol district of the Dnipropetrovsk region. Three private houses, farm buildings and a power line were damaged. There are no injured.
Over the past day, three people were injured in Donetsk region due to Russian shelling. In the Zaporizhzhia region, 14 settlements were shelled during the day, seven in the Kherson region.
During the day, the defence forces carried out several strikes on areas where the Russian army is concentrated, hitting three control points and two ammunition depots. Over the past day, the Russian Federation lost approximately 850 of its soldiers in the war against Ukraine, the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reported.
Russian assault on Pavlivka and Vuhledar becoming more concerted, says MoD
The UK’s Ministry of Defence has published its daily intelligence briefing on the situation in Ukraine. It says:
In the last three days, Russia has likely developed its probing attacks around the towns of Pavlivka and Vuhledar into a more concerted assault. Russian commanders are likely aiming to develop a new axis of advance into Ukrainian-held Donetsk Oblast, and to divert Ukrainian forces from the heavily contested Bakhmut sector. There is a realistic possibility that Russia will continue to make local gains in the sector. However, it is unlikely that Russia has sufficient uncommitted troops in the area to achieve an operationally significant breakthrough.
Latest Defence Intelligence update on the situation in Ukraine - 31 January 2023
— Ministry of Defence 🇬🇧 (@DefenceHQ) January 31, 2023
Find out more about the UK government's response: https://t.co/LEQzjzWkCH
🇺🇦 #StandWithUkraine 🇺🇦 pic.twitter.com/DpJv5iBb6b
The two settlements are situated 50km to the south-west of Donetsk city.
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Nato-member Croatia’s president last night criticised western nations for supplying Ukraine with heavy tanks and other weapons in its campaign against invading Russian forces, saying those arms deliveries will only prolong the war.
Associated Press report that Zoran Milanović told reporters in the Croatian capital that it was “mad” to believe that Russia could be defeated in a conventional war.
“I am against sending any lethal arms there,” Milanović said. “It prolongs the war.”
“What is the goal? Disintegration of Russia, change of the government? There is also talk of tearing Russia apart. This is mad,” he added.
Milanović has openly opposed the admission of Finland and Sweden into Nato as well as the training of Ukrainian troops in Croatia as part of EU aid to the embattled country.
Yesterday he said he believed that Crimea would never again be part of Ukraine. The Black Sea peninsula was annexed by Russia in 2014 in a move that is not widely recognised internationally.
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Ukraine’s state broadcaster Suspilne reports that according to the regional authority, the night passed in the Sumy region with no shelling.
This is Martin Belam taking over the blog in London from my colleague Helen Sullivan.
Gazprom gas exports to Europe via Ukraine hit historic low in January – reports
More now on Europe’s shifting energy demands: Russia’s Gazprom’s gas exports to the EU via Ukraine reached a record low of 951.4m cubic metres in the first 30 days of January, Russian business newspaper Vedomosti is reporting, citing Gazprom figures.
Vedomosti reported that Gazprom had shipped 41-43m cubic metres via Ukraine daily during the second half of 2022. However, from 5 January, daily volumes began to fall sharply, with only 24.4m cubic metres shipped daily by 19 January.
Vedomosti reported that the decline is primarily the result of reduced demand for Russian gas in Europe, amid an unusually warm and windy winter.
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Mild weather, government aid, gas storage facilities at full capacity and energy imports from other regions have helped Europe limit the economic damage caused by the war, AFP reports.
Germany, which relied heavily on Russian gas imports before the war, provided massive aid to consumers, scrambled to fill up its storage facilities and found new sources of energy as Moscow turned off the taps.
The government said last week it expects Europe’s biggest economy to avoid recession this year, though data on Monday showed a contraction in the last three months of 2022.
To beef up winter supplies, Germany and its EU neighbours bought LNG from Qatar and the United States, which is more expensive than Russian gas that was brought in via pipelines.
LNG imports in Europe jumped by 60% in 2022 compared to the previous year, according to the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA).
As a result “the worst case scenarios for 2022/2023 winter did not happen,” said Fabian Skarboe Ronningen, senior analyst for power markets research at Rystad Energy.
European gas stocks are currently at 72% of capacity – double this time last year.
With temperatures so far this winter more clement than usual, European consumers turned the heating on later, keeping bill rises in check, ensuring reserves stay high.
Russia and Belarus have started a week-long session of staff training for the joint command of their regional grouping of forces, the Belarusian defence ministry said on Tuesday.
The training is part of preparation for joint drills the two countries will hold in Russia in September, the ministry added in its statement.
Ukraine defence minister in Paris to ask Macron for jets
Ukraine’s defence minister is expected in Paris on Tuesday to meet President Emmanuel Macron amid a debate among Kyiv’s allies over whether to provide fighter jets for its war against Russia, after US President Joe Biden ruled out giving F-16s.
In remarks carried on French television before Biden spoke in Washington, Macron stressed any such move would depend on several factors including the need to avoid escalation and assurances that the aircraft would not “touch Russian soil.” He said Reznikov would also meet his French counterpart Sebastien Lecornu in Paris on Tuesday.
Biden says the US will not provide F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine
The United States will not provide the F-16 fighter jets that Ukraine has sought in its fight against Russia, President Joe Biden said on Monday.
Ukraine planned to push for western fourth-generation fighter jets such as the F-16 after securing supplies of main battle tanks last week, an adviser to Ukraine’s defence minister said on Friday. A Ukrainian air force spokesperson said it would take its pilots about half a year to train on such fighter jets.
Asked if the United States would provide the jets, Biden told reporters at the White House, “No.”
The brief exchange came shortly after Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said that Russia had begun exacting its revenge for Ukraine’s resistance to its invasion with relentless attacks in the east.
Zelenskiy has warned for weeks that Moscow aims to step up its assault on Ukraine after about two months of virtual stalemate along the front line that stretches across the south and east.
Ukraine won a huge boost last week when Germany and the United States announced plans to provide heavy tanks, ending weeks of diplomatic deadlock on the issue.
“The next big hurdle will now be the fighter jets,” Yuriy Sak, who advises Defence Minister Oleksiy Reznikov, told Reuters on Friday.
Welcome and summary
Hello and welcome to today’s live coverage of the war in Ukraine. My name is Helen Sullivan and I’ll be bringing you the latest for the next while.
Our top story this morning: the United States will not provide the F-16 fighter jets that Ukraine has sought in its fight against Russia, President Joe Biden said on Monday, as Russian forces claimed a series of incremental gains in the country’s east.
We’ll have more on this shortly. In the meantime, here are the other key recent developments:
Volodymyr Zelenskiy’s most senior adviser, Andriy Yermak, has suggested Poland is willing to supply Ukraine with the F-16 fighters. Yermak said Ukraine had had “positive signals” from Warsaw in a Telegram posting, although Poland’s prime minister, Mateusz Morawiecki, was careful to stress his own country would only act in consultation with Nato allies, as Ukraine’s lobbying for the combat jets steps up only a few days after Germany and the US agreed to send over tanks.
Zelenskiy has called for western weapons to be supplied more quickly. Speaking in his nightly address, the Ukrainian president said Russia was hoping to drag out the war, and exhaust his country’s ability to resist the invaders. “So we have to make time our weapon. We must speed up the events, speed up the supply and opening of new necessary weaponry options for Ukraine,” Zelenskiy said.
The Kremlin warned the west’s supplying of further weapons to Ukraine would only lead to “significant escalation” of the conflict. Kyiv “demands more and more weapons” while Nato countries were “more and more becoming directly involved in the conflict”, Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said, after Ukraine’s deputy foreign minister, Andriy Melnyk, called on Germany to send his country a submarine.
Russian forces continued attacks on positions across the frontline near the eastern cities of Bakhmut and Donetsk. Moscow’s troops have been pounding Bakhmut in the Donbas for several months, but in recent days the invaders appeared to have opened up a new effort to gain ground around the village of Vuhledar, 30 miles south-west of Donetsk city.
Ukraine’s military and Russia’s Wagner private military group are both claiming to have control in the area of Blahodatne, eastern Donetsk region. “Units of Ukraine’s defence forces repelled the attacks of the occupiers in the areas of … Blahodatne … in the Donetsk region,” Ukraine’s military reported, adding its forces also repelled attacks in 13 other settlements in the Donetsk region. Wagner, designated by the US as a transnational criminal organisation, said on the Telegram messaging app on Saturday that its units had taken control of Blahodatne.
The Russian government on Monday banned domestic oil exporters and customs bodies from adhering to western-imposed price caps on Russian crude. The measure was issued to help enforce President Vladimir Putin’s decree of 27 December that prohibited the supply of crude oil and oil products from 1 February for five months, to nations that abide by the caps. The new Russian act bans corporates and individuals from including oil price cap mechanisms in their contracts.
Ukraine’s state-run energy operator Ukrenergo has said there is a “significant” deficit in the country’s energy system due to damage caused by Russian missile attacks. Ukraine’s energy system had “survived” 13 rocket attacks and 15 drone strikes from Russian forces, which had “caused significant damage to high-voltage facilities and power plants”, it added.
Ukraine’s military will spend nearly $550m (£444m / €505m) on drones (UAVs) in 2023, and 16 supply deals have already been signed with Ukrainian manufacturers, defence minister Oleksii Reznikov has said. Ukraine has received significant supplies of UAVs from its partners but Kyiv is now seeking to boost domestic production to build what officials cast as an “army of drones”.
