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The Guardian - AU
The Guardian - AU
World
Tobi Thomas, Martin Belam and Samantha Lock

Putin thought enemies would ‘roll over’ but he was wrong, says Joe Biden in major speech in Poland – as it happened

Summary

Updated

Italy 'will not waver' in support for Ukraine, says Italy PM Meloni, but says no plan to send jets

The Italian prime minister Giorgia Meloni said Italy “would not waver” in its support for Ukraine after meeting president Volodymyr Zelenskiy in Kyiv on Tuesday.

Almost one year on from Russia’s invasion of the country, Meloni referred to Ukraine as an “extraordinary nation” which has been heroic in defending its “freedom, identity and sovereignty”.

“Italy will give every possible assistance to create the conditions for negotiation, but until then it will give every kind of military, financial and civil support,” she said. “Those who support Ukraine, even militarily, are those who work for peace.”

However, she said there was no plan on the table for Italy to send warplanes to Ukraine. “It is a decision to be made with international partners.”

It was Meloni’s first visit to the war-torn country since her government took power in October.

She arrived by train from Poland and was visibly moved during visits to Irpin and Bucha, towns in the outskirts of the Ukrainian capital where atrocities were found after Russian troops left. “It’s different talking about numbers and seeing on-the-spot the lives of people destroyed for no reason,” Meloni said at the end of her visit to Irpin.

“We saw devastation and suffering with our own eyes,” she added during the press conference with Zelenskiy. “We can’t turn the other way and it would be very stupid to do so.”

Meloni had earlier dismissed Russian president Vladimir Putin’s speech on Tuesday as “propaganda”.

“A part of my heart hoped for some different words for a step ahead,” she said.

Meloni has been a staunch supporter of Ukraine although the stance of her allies – Silvio Berlusconi’s Forza Italia and Matteo Salvini’s League – have been less clear.

The Ukrainian president responded to controversial comments made by Berlusconi, the former Italian premier and long-time friend of Putin, who last week blamed Zelenskiy for the war, saying that if he had “stopped attacking the two autonomous republics of the Donbas” then the conflict would not have happened.

Zelenskiy said: “I believe that Berlusconi’s house has never been bombed by missiles, tanks have never arrived in the garden of his house, nobody killed his relatives, he never had to pack a suitcase at three in the morning to escape, or his wife never had to look for food…all this is thanks to the brotherly love of Russia. I wish peace to all Italian families, even those who don’t support Ukraine, but they need to understand that lives are being taken away.”

Updated

Reuters reports that the supply of military planes to Ukraine “is not on the table”, Italian prime minister Giorgia Meloni said on Tuesday after talks in Kyiv with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy.

Speaking in a news conference alongside Zelenskiy, Meloni said Italy was considering sending more air defence systems beyond the SAMP/T-MAMBA on which it has worked with France

Updated

The Russian president Vladimir Putin gave a televised national address to the joint houses of the Russian parliament earlier, in which he blamed the west for starting the war in Ukraine. Putin said the west had begun “not just a military and information, but an economic, aggression” against Russia. He also announced he was suspending the country’s participation in a nuclear treaty with the US.

Updated

In anniversary speech, Biden vows ‘Ukraine will never be a victory for Russia’

From the US politics blog:

Speaking before a crowd of thousands in the gardens of Warsaw’s Royal Castle, Joe Biden hailed the resilience of Ukraine’s people and the benevolence of Poland and other western allies in helping fend off the Russian invasion.

“Autocrats only understand one word: no.” Biden said. “No, you will not take my country. No, you will not take my freedom. No, you will not take my future. I’ll repeat tonight what I said last year at the same place. A dictator bent on rebuilding an empire will never be able to ease the people’s love of liberties. Brutality will never grind down the will of the free. Ukraine will never be a victory for Russia, never.”

He then condemned Russian president Vladimir Putin for the invasion, which began on 24 February of last year.

“This war is never a necessity. It’s a tragedy. President Putin chose this war. Every day the war continues is his choice. He could end the war with a word. It’s simple. Russia stops invading Ukraine, it would end the war. If Ukraine stopped defending itself against Russia, it would be the end of Ukraine. That’s why together, we’re making sure Ukraine can defend itself,” Biden said.

Biden has rallied Nato allies in Poland on Tuesday, proclaiming “unwavering” support for Kyiv and a commitment to bolstering the alliance’s eastern flank.

Reuters reports:

“One year ago, the world was bracing for the fall of Kyiv,” Biden said at Warsaw’s Royal Castle. “I can report: Kyiv stands strong, Kyiv stands proud, it stands tall and, most important, it stands free.”

Biden used the trip to rally support for Ukraine as the war enters its second year with no end in sight, on the same day as Russian President Vladimir Putin delivered a major speech unpicking nuclear accords with Washington.

Earlier on Tuesday, Biden met Nato ally Polish President Andrzej Duda, one of the most vocal proponents of stronger Western support for Kyiv.

That followed an unannounced trip on Monday to Ukraine, marking the first time in recent memory that a US president has made such a journey to a country at war without US troops on the ground controlling the area.

“When President Putin ordered his tanks to roll into Ukraine, he thought we would roll over,” Biden said. “He was wrong.”

Duda said Biden’s visit showed US commitment to maintaining security in Europe, and described Biden’s stop in Kyiv as an “incredible gesture”.

Poland has Nato’s longest border with Ukraine and has been the main route in for weapons and out for refugees. The two leaders were expected to discuss Poland’s security and scaling up Nat resources there.

“I call on all European states, Nato states, to show solidarity with Ukraine, to provide military support to Ukraine, so that they have something to fight with,” said Duda. “Do not be afraid to provide this support”.

Poland was under communist rule for four decades until 1989 and was a member of the Moscow-led Warsaw Pact security alliance. It is now part of the EU and Nato.

Biden’s visit was welcomed by ordinary Poles and by the 2.5 million Ukrainians, mostly women and children refugees from the conflict, now living in the country.

Many called for bolder Western support for Kyiv, including the supply of fighter jets, which Biden has so far held back from offering.

“We hope that they (the US) will increase shipments of arms, that things at the front will improve and that we will win,” said Alina Kiiko, 32, a Ukrainian in central Warsaw.

On the Roman Dmowski roundabout in the centre of the city, a giant advertising screen ran the slogan: “Biden, give F-16 to Ukraine” in English, referring to US fighter jets.

Demonstrators displayed a banner with the same slogan outside the hotel where Biden stayed overnight as he left for his meeting with Duda in the Polish presidential palace where he was met by a military honour guard.

Warsaw resident Marian Switala, 70, said he hoped “that this conflict will somehow be resolved and there will be peace in Ukraine and the surrounding area”.

Updated

Biden says that more sanctions against Russia will be announced this week.

Biden says crimes against humanity and war crimes committed by Russia will be punished.

He says the US will continue to have Ukraine’s back as the country defends itself.

Biden says he will host Nato members next year for a summit to celebrate the 75th anniversary of the organisation.

Updated

Biden says he was honoured to pay tribute to those who lost their lives, in Kyiv yesterday.

He says that he stands with millions of refugees created by the war. He said that in their darkest moments, Poland offered refugees safety. Together we make sure that Russia pays the price for its abuses, Biden says.

Biden says that the EU has stepped up with unprecedented support for Ukraine. He says that Putin tried to starve the world and exacerbate a global food crisis, but instead the US and G7 answered the call with commitments to address the crisis and bolster global food supply.

He says his wife is travelling across Africa to raise awareness of this issue.

Ukraine still free and independent a year after Russian invasion, US president says

Biden says that Ukraine is still independent and free one year after Putin’s invasion. He says that Ukraine’s flag proudly flies and Ukraine is still independent and a democracy.

He says that the war was a tragedy, and that Putin could end the war. He says together we are making sure Ukraine can defend themselves.

Updated

Biden says that Nato would not be divided and support for Ukraine will not falter. That brutality would never grind down the will of the free, and Ukraine would never be a victory for Russia.

Updated

Nato is more united than ever before, says Biden

Biden says Putin thought Nato would fracture and divide, but instead Nato is more united than before.

Updated

Putin thought enemies would ‘roll over’ but he was wrong, says Joe Biden

Biden says that when Putin ordered his tanks to roll into Ukraine, he thought we would roll over, but he was wrong. Democracy was too strong, and instead of an easy victory Putin left with Russian forces in disarray.

Updated

Biden says that Kyiv stands proud, tall, and free. He said the whole world faced a test of the ages when Russia invading Ukraine, as well as Nato and all democracies.

He says that one year later, the world would not look the other way to Russia’s attack.

He said that we stand up for democracy and sovereignty, and the right of people to live free from aggression.

Updated

Biden says that Poland is one of the US’s great allies, and thanks the Polish president for welcoming him back.

He says the principles of peace were at risk of being shattered by Putin’s invasion of Ukraine.

You can follow US coverage of Joe Biden’s speech here in our dedicated US live blog.

Updated

Russian strikes in the southern Ukrainian city of Kherson have left at least six people dead and 12 more injured. According to local authorities, Russia used multiple-launch rocket systems to hit residential areas and critical infrastructure facilities, including a market, a transport stop and a kindergarten. The strikes came as Vladimir Putin made his state of the nation speech in Moscow, during which he announced a suspension of a key nuclear arms deal with the US.

Updated

Prior to Biden’s speech, Duda says that the defenders of Ukraine will prevail, and that this horrible sacrifice by the Ukrainians will bear the fruits of victory.

He added that Biden stood in Ukraine above all odds, and has showed that Ukraine is not alone and is supported by the most important country in the world.

Updated

President Duda is giving a speech in Poland, saying that Ukraine has to win and thanks the US and Nato for sending military and humanitarian assistance to Ukraine.

Updated

The following entry from the Guardian’s US politics blog summarises the Republican response to Biden’s visit to Ukraine:

It’s a tale as old as time: Joe Biden does something, and Republicans criticize him for harming America, or ignoring its problems.

Case in point, the GOP’s attacks on Biden for traveling to Ukraine. They argue he’s showing more concern for that country than his own, and cite his treatment of the migrant arrivals on the southern border with Mexico – even though he last month unveiled tougher policies that rights groups have condemned.

“I think I and many Americans are thinking to ourselves, OK, he’s very concerned about those borders halfway around the world. He’s not done anything to secure our own border here at home,” Florida governor, Ron DeSantis, told Fox News shortly after Biden’s visit to Kyiv became public yesterday.

There’s a reason why GOP politicians bring up the border so often. As this recent Gallup poll shows, immigration polls relatively highly in Americans’ ranking of the country’s problems.

Updated

The White House has said that President Biden’s remarks at the Kubicki Arkades is a widely anticipated event in Poland.

In a press briefing, the White House said:

“The speech will be carried live by all major TV networks. The US Embassy in Warsaw invited not only government officials and leaders of all political parties, but also the general public. “I cordially invite you to the speech of President Joe Biden in Warsaw. This is a unique opportunity to see the President of the United States live” – wrote the US ambassador, Mark Brzezinski.

“Those who were interested in attending the event were required to register on the Embassy’s website. Thousands of people are expected. Those who won’t be able to enter the gated area will have the opportunity to watch the speech on the large outdoor screens.”

Updated

Biden to mark one-year anniversary of Russia's invasion of Ukraine with speech

Biden’s speech comes as the US president has been holding talks with his Polish counterpart, Andrzej Duda, about the strengthening of Nato’s eastern flank in the face of Russia’s continuing war in Ukraine, the White House said.

Biden met Duda at lunchtime before a speech in the evening outside Warsaw’s Royal Castle, his second address there in less than a year, underlining the increasingly close relationship between the US and Poland as the Ukraine war grinds on.

“The United States needs Poland and Nato as much as Poland and Nato need the United States,” the US president said at the start of the meeting.

“Poland has been a critical player,” the US national security adviser, Jake Sullivan, told reporters on Tuesday morning after Biden and his team arrived back in Poland from their surprise rail trip to Kyiv. “It has been critical to hosting very large numbers of Ukrainian refugees. It has been a critical logistics hub for military assistance going into Ukraine, and it has been a strong voice as part of a unified western effort to try to ensure that there are no cracks, that the west and that the larger coalition of nations holds together strongly for as long as it takes.”

Earlier, Putin had said that Russia will halt its participation in New Start, the last major remaining nuclear arms control treaty with the US, in a speech devoted to the one-year anniversary of Russia’s large-scale invasion of Ukraine.

The foreign ministers of the G7 have said their countries would continue to impose economic costs on Russia and urged the broader international community to reject what they described as Moscow’s “brutal expansionism”.

“We will impose further economic costs on Russia, and on individuals and entities – inside and outside of Russia – that provide political or economic support to these violations of international law,” the leaders said in a joint statement, Reuters reports.

Updated

Engie, the French energy company, reported a sharp increase in its annual profit, helped by higher natural gas and power prices in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

The company said its net recurring income for 2022 totalled €5.2bn ($5.55bn), up from €2.9bn in 2021.

Full-year earnings before tax and interest was €9bn, up from €6.1bn in 2021.

Updated

When Anastasiia Vereshchynska, 27, left Kyiv with her partner for a trip to western Ukraine in early February 2022, they did not pack lightly. “We were taking a bit more just in case. There was lots of information on social media about what to pack in case of war: medicine, warm clothes, valuables and documents, thermals. I was thinking we are doing this because we are panicking and that it would not really help us.”

But Vereshchynska was not panicking unduly. They were meant to return from the city of Ivano-Frankivsk on 23 February. But Russia’s invasion the following day meant the couple remained in the city for several months, staying in a friend’s flat.

One year on, the couple is living in Uzhhorod, a city perched on Ukraine’s border with Slovakia. “It’s a pretty small city but lots have come from other regions,” says Vereshchynska, who works remotely for an NGO. “I suppose for people living there before the invasion it’s a bit uncomfortable – probably the city wasn’t prepared for this number of people.” Rents have also risen, she says.

More than 18 million people – almost one in five Ukrainians – fled the country in the wake of Russia’s invasion last year, but around 10.3 million have since returned. Millions of others have been internally displaced by devastation in cities including Kharkiv, Odesa and Mariupol.

Helena Smith reports for the Guardian from Athens:

Over in Greece where he is making his first visit as US secretary of state, Antony Blinken has described Moscow’s decision to pull out of the New Start nuclear arms treaty as “deeply unfortunate and irresponsible”.

Sounding a cautionary note, he said Washington was still open to discussing the nuclear arms control treaty with Russia “at any time … irrespective of anything else going on in the world.”

“We’ll be watching carefully to see what Russia actually does,” he told reporters in Athens following president Putin’s announcement that his country would be suspending participation in the treaty. “We’ll of course make sure that in any event, we are postured appropriately for the security of our own country and that of our allies,” he added. “I think it matters that we continue to act responsibly in this area, it’s also something the rest of the world expects of us.”

Washington’s top diplomat had earlier praised Nato-member Greece for its staunch support on Ukraine, despite the Orthodox country’s traditionally strong cultural and political ties with Russia and furious reaction from Moscow.

Meeting Greek prime minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis late on Monday, Blinken said:

“We’re now one year into Russia’s aggression against Ukraine, but the partnerships, the alliances we form are strong in support of Ukraine, and I have to applaud Greece’s leadership in that area as among the first to come to the support of Ukraine, to come to the support of democracy, which has been challenged by the Russian aggression.”

Updated

Education ministry orders Ukraine schools to teach remotely over anniversary attack fears

Ukraine told schools on Tuesday to hold classes remotely from 22-24 February because of the risk of Russian missile strikes around the first anniversary of Moscow’s 2022 invasion.

Russia has carried out regular missile and drone strikes since October, and Kyiv says Moscow could unleash a new barrage to mark Friday’s anniversary.

The education ministry issued a statement saying it had made the recommendation to schools “to protect the lives and health of all participants in the educational process, as a preventive measure before the anniversary”.

German foreign minister Annalena Baerbock said on Tuesday that the global community has repeatedly urged Russian president Vladimir Putin not to resort to nuclear threats in his standoff with the west over the war in Ukraine.

Speaking on a visit to an area in Turkey devastated by the recent earthquake, Baerbock also said Putin’s decision to suspend a landmark nuclear arms control treaty underscored the importance of moves towards nuclear disarmament.

German foreign minister Annalena Baerbock inspecting a shipment of aid for victims of the earthquake, at the Gaziantep Airport in Turkey.
German foreign minister Annalena Baerbock inspecting a shipment of aid for victims of the earthquake, at the Gaziantep Airport in Turkey. Photograph: Eloisa Lopez/Reuters

The secretary of Russia’s security council told China’s top diplomat Wang Yi on Tuesday that Beijing was a top priority for Russian foreign policy, and that the two countries must stick together against the west, Reuters reports that Russian state news agencies have reported.

Nikolai Patrushev, a close ally of President Vladimir Putin, also told Wang that Moscow backed China’s position over Taiwan, Hong Kong and Xinjiang, according to a statement cited by the RIA Novosti news agency.

Russia’s state-owned Tass news agency is quoting Serbia’s president, Aleksandar Vučić, saying that he expects the situation in Ukraine to change in the new few days. He said:

From the statements of Russian president Putin, it is clear that he will continue to wage a very intense fight in Ukraine and this position, or, in other words, the escalation of the conflict, will further complicate the situation of Serbia, both politically, militarily and in all other respects.

This is what we expected, and I expect to see in a day, two or three significant changes on the battlefield and serious changes in further political actions towards Serbia from the west.

Updated

Here are some of the images sent to us over the news wires from the site of the bus stop shelling in Kherson earlier today in which six people were killed and 12 more injured. The attack happened at the same time that Russian president, Vladimir Putin, was delivering his state of the nation address which blamed the west for the war.

Damaged facade of local stores after a missile strike on Kherson.
Damaged facade of local stores after a missile strike on Kherson. Photograph: Global Images Ukraine/Getty Images
A person cleans up broken glass from a window damaged after the shelling in Kherson.
A person cleans up broken glass from a window damaged after the shelling in Kherson. Photograph: Lisi Niesner/Reuters
A part of a rocket is seen in front of a bus station damaged after a shelling in Kherson.
A part of a rocket is seen in front of a bus station damaged after a shelling in Kherson. Photograph: Lisi Niesner/Reuters

Updated

cThe impact of Russia’s statement that it is suspending nuclear arms control talks is unclear and the US nuclear posture remains unchanged, state department spokesperson Ned Price said on Tuesday.

“It’s unclear if there will be practical impact,” Reuters reports Price said in an interview with CNN. The US announced publicly this year that Russia was not in compliance with the New Start treaty, he said, so Washington will watch to see what steps Moscow actually takes. “We haven’t seen any reason to change our nuclear posture, our strategic posture just yet.”

Updated

Eighteen Russian MPs are expected to attend a meeting of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) in Vienna on Friday, the first anniversary of Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine, and have been invited to a nationalist ball.

Ukraine has already said it will boycott the winter session of the OSCE’s parliamentary assembly at the organisation’s headquarters on 23 and 24 February, saying Russia would use the event to “justify its aggression” and “whitewash war crimes”.

The leader of the Ukrainian delegation, Mykyta Poturayev, said the assembly should have been postponed since Russia’s attendance would “undermine its integrity … and compromise the clear position it has shown on Russian aggression”.

Responding to demands from parliamentarians in 20 member states to refuse visas to the Russian MPs – all of whom, as members of the Duma or lower house, are under EU sanctions – Austria’s foreign minister conceded the timing was “unfortunate”.

Joe Biden’s visit to Poland is an important sign of the United States’ commitment to maintaining security in Europe, according to the Polish President Andrzej Duda.

“Your visit is an important sign of security, a signal of US responsibility for the security of the world and Europe. America can keep the world order,” Duda told Biden during their bilateral meeting.

Updated

Nato Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said on Tuesday Russia’s decision to suspend participation in the New Start bilateral nuclear arms control treaty made the world a more dangerous place, and he urged Moscow to reconsider.

Reuters reports:

He spoke at a news conference held at Nato headquarters in Brussels after Russian president, Vladimir Putin, delivered a warning to the West over the war in Ukraine and announced its decision on the New START treaty.

The treaty between Moscow and Washington, signed in 2010, limits the number of atomic warheads the world’s two biggest nuclear powers can deploy and is due to expire in 2026.

“More nuclear weapons and less arms control makes the world more dangerous,” Stoltenberg, standing alongside Ukrainian foreign minister, Dmytro Kuleba, and EU foreign policy chief, Josep Borrell, told reporters.

Replying to Putin’s accusations that the west was trying to destroy Russia, Stoltenberg said Moscow was the aggressor in Ukraine where it launched an invasion almost a year ago.

“It is President Putin who started this imperial war of conquest ... As Putin made clear today, he’s preparing for more war ... Putin must not win ... It would be dangerous for our own security and the whole world,” Stoltenberg added.

“I regret the decision by Russia to suspend its participation in (the) New START programme”.

In Athens on Tuesday, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said Russia’s decision was irresponsible and the United States would watch carefully to see what Moscow actually does.

Updated

Six killed after Russia shells civilian areas in Kherson during Putin speech, Ukraine says

Russians forces shelled civilian areas of the southern city of Kherson, killing six people and injuring 12 more, at the same time that the Russian president, Vladimir Putin, was delivering a state of the nation address blaming everyone else but Russia for his invasion of Ukraine.

According to the Facebook page of Ukraine’s southern task force, Russia used multiple-launch rocket systems to hit “residential areas, critical infrastructure facilities, a kindergarten, a hospital, private garages and cars. Several houses were significantly damaged, several apartments in multi-apartment buildings were on fire as a result of a direct hit.

“A local market and a public transport stop were shelled. Just in the middle of the street, civilians of Kherson were injured and died in their own homes and workplaces,” the task force added.

Images posted on social media showed damage to a bus stop where several people were killed and showed bodies in civilian clothing lying in the street.

Ukrainian officials said the city and surrounding areas had been hit by 20 strikes during Putin’s speech.

Updated

Russia suspending involvement in New Start treaty makes world more dangerous, Nato chief says

Russia’s decision to suspend the New Start arms control treaty makes the world a more dangerous place, the secretary general of Nato has said.

“More nuclear weapons and less arms control makes the world more dangerous,” Jens Stoltenberg said, urging Russia to reconsider its decision. “This is one of the last major arms control agreements we have,” he said, and “just another example” of a move away from the international rules-based order.

Speaking alongside him, the EU foreign policy chief, Josep Borrell, said the Kremlin’s decision to abandon the New Start treaty was “another proof that what Russia is doing is demolishing the security system that was built at the end of the cold war”.

Vladimir Putin announced he was suspending Russia’s participation in the New Start treaty with the US in a long speech in which he blamed the west for starting the war in Ukraine.

Speaking to reporters at Nato’s headquarters in Brussels shortly after the Russian president had finished speaking, Stoltenberg said:

A year ago President Putin launched his illegal war against a peaceful neighbour. The facts are clear for all to see. Nobody is attacking Russia. Russia is the aggressor. Ukraine is the victim of aggression and we are supporting Ukraine’s right to self-defence, a right which is enshrined in the UN charter. It is President Putin who started this imperial war of contest, it is Putin who keeps escalating the war.

When the war ends, Stoltenberg said, “long-term arrangements for Ukraine’s security” would be needed “to break the cycle of Russian aggression”.

He was speaking alongside Borrell and Ukraine’s foreign minister, Dmytro Kuleba, as the trio held their first trilateral meeting of its kind. According to Kuleba, they discussed military training, weapons and procurement, with a pledge to help Ukraine “procure weapons and ammunition most effectively” and ensure they were delivered to the battlefield.

Borrell said he had written to EU defence ministers, who are meeting in early March, asking them to provide more ammunition to Ukraine from their stockpiles and speed up new supplies – which, he said, several countries were already doing. “The time parameters of what we have to do is measured in weeks, not months,” Borrell said.

Kuleba said Ukraine’s government would “thoroughly examine” a peace plan due to be presented by China later this week, saying the two countries shared a belief in the principle of territorial integrity.

Updated

Six civilians were killed and 12 wounded in Russian shelling of a market and public transport stop in the southern Ukrainian city of Kherson on Tuesday, the country’s military said.

Reuters reports that the southern military command said in a statement that Kherson came under fire as the Russian president, Vladimir Putin, was delivering a speech in which he depicted his country as not being at war with the Ukrainian people.

Updated

Join our panel of experts and Guardian journalists as they mark the anniversary of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in a livestreamed event. Tickets are available here.

On 24 February last year, Vladimir Putin launched a full-scale military invasion against Ukraine in a rapid escalation of tensions along the border. Though largely unprepared and vastly outnumbered, Ukraine met the attack with incredible resistance and has continued to show that it is willing to be strategically flexible. Despite this, there has been little movement on the frontlines since the liberation of Kherson in November, and Putin has made it clear that he is preparing his troops for a long war.

How has the war changed Ukraine and beyond? How should the west support Ukraine and how do we preserve our democratic freedoms in the uncertain years to come? And how will this conflict reach its end?

Join Michael Safi, the presenter for Today in Focus, as he chairs a panel of speakers, which includes the Guardian’s foreign correspondent and author of Invasion, written on the frontline in Ukraine, Luke Harding, the Ukrainian journalist Nataliya Gumenyuk, and Andrey Kurkov, a Ukrainian novelist and the author of Diary of an Invasion, which documents Russia’s attack on his homeland. They will also be taking your questions at this livestreamed event.

This event will be hosted on the third-party livestreaming platform Zoom, please refer to their privacy policy and terms and conditions before purchasing a ticket. After registering, please refer to your confirmation email for access to the event.

Closed captions will be available.
Tickets available here.

Updated

Nato chief responds to Putin speech, calling Russia the aggressor in 'imperial war of conquest'

Nato’s secretary general, Jens Stoltenberg, has said he regretted Russia’s decision to suspend its participation in the New Start bilateral nuclear arms control treaty and urged Moscow to reconsider.

During a joint press conference with Ukraine’s foreign minister, Dmytro Kuleba, and the EU’s foreign policy chief, Josep Borrell, held shortly after President Vladimir Putin delivered a warning to the west over Ukraine, Stoltenberg said Russia was the aggressor, according to Reuters:

“It is President Putin who started this imperial war of conquest … As Putin made clear today, he’s preparing for more war … Putin must not win … It would be dangerous for our own security and the whole world,” Stoltenberg added.

“I regret the decision by Russia to suspend its participation in a New Start programme”.

Updated

Speaking for one hour and 45 minutes, Putin vowed to continue with Russia’s year-long war in Ukraine.

Reuters reports:

The west and would-be Nato member Ukraine reject that narrative, and say Nato expansion eastwards since the end of the cold war is no justification for what they say is an imperial-style land grab doomed to failure.

“The people of Ukraine have become the hostage of the Kyiv regime and its western overlords, who have effectively occupied this country in the political, military and economic sense,” Putin said.

“They intend to transform a local conflict into a phase of global confrontation. This is exactly how we understand it all, and we will react accordingly, because in this case we are talking about the existence of our country.”

Defeating Russia, he said, was impossible.

Russia would never yield to western attempts to divide its society, said the 70-year-old Kremlin chief, adding that a majority of Russians support the war.

Russian president Vladimir Putin delivers his annual state of the nation address at the Gostiny Dvor conference centre in central Moscow.
Russian president Vladimir Putin delivers his annual state of the nation address at the Gostiny Dvor conference centre in central Moscow. Photograph: Ramil Sitdikov/Sputnik/AFP/Getty Images

Updated

Isobel Koshiw, Dan Sabbagh, Daniel Boffey, Emma Graham-Harrison and Luke Harding have reflected on what it has been like reporting the war in Ukraine over the past year.

From scenes of Russian violence to local resilience and liberation, our correspondents highlight their standout memories of Ukraine’s fight for survival – you can read the article below.

Russia summons US ambassador over Washington's 'aggressive course'

Russia’s foreign ministry said on Tuesday that it had summoned United States ambassador Lynne Tracy over what it called Washington’s increasingly “aggressive course”, accusing it of widening its involvement in the Ukraine conflict, Reuters reports.

“In this regard, the ambassador was told that the current aggressive course of the United States to deepen confrontation with Russia in all areas is counterproductive,” the foreign ministry said.

It also called on the United States to give an explanation over blasts that damaged the Nord Stream 1 and Nord Stream 2 gas pipelines last year

Updated

Summary of the day so far …

  • Russian president, Vladimir Putin, has given a long televised national address to the joint houses of the Russian parliament, in which he blamed the west for starting the war in Ukraine, announced Russia would suspend the New Start nuclear treaty with the US, and promised a new fund to help those who had lost loved ones in what he referred to as Russia’s “special military operation” in Ukraine.

  • Putin claimed the Ukrainian people had become “hostages of their western masters” who occupied the country in political, economic and military terms. He said “the regime is not serving their national interest. They are serving the interests of foreign powers”. He claimed the west is trying to turn a local conflict into a global conflict and “we will react in an appropriate way. We are talking about the existence of our country.”

  • Referring to the sham referendums held late last year, Putin praised the citizens of occupied Luhansk, Donetsk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia, saying “You yourself determined your future. You made your choice despite the threats of terror of the Nazis. Next to you there were military actions taking place, and you made the choice to be together with Russia. To be together with your motherland.”

  • Putin said the west had begun “not just a military and information, but an economic aggression” against Russia. “They have not achieved success in either of these areas,” he said, boasting that Russia’s economy had restructured and that “the initiators of the sanctions are punishing themselves.”

  • Ukrainian responses to the speech were scathing. “He is in a completely different reality, where there is no opportunity to conduct a dialogue about justice and international law,” political adviser Mykhailo Podolyak said. Another adviser, Anton Gerashchenko, said: “The insolent thief said that Russian farmers harvested a ‘record harvest’ last year. And he shyly kept silent about the fact that it was stolen Ukrainian grain, which was transported to the Russian Federation by freight trains.” Ukraine’s ambassador to Austria called Putin a liar.

  • Russian state media websites broadcasting Putin’s address suffered an outage during his speech. The state-run RIA Novosti news agency said the outage was the result of a distributed denial of service (DDoS) attack.

  • Joe Biden had visited Kyiv on Monday to announce a new package of additional US aid to Ukraine worth $500m (£415m) including artillery ammunition, anti-armour systems, and air surveillance radars. The timing of his visit – before Putin’s address – was seen as a deliberate rebuke of the Russian president.

  • The US president then arrived in Warsaw late on Monday evening where he is set to meet with Poland’s president, Andrzej Duda, along with other leaders of countries on Nato’s eastern flank. The US president will make a speech later today outside Warsaw’s royal castle.

  • Volodymyr Zelenskiy said he and Biden spoke about “long-range weapons and the weapons that may still be supplied to Ukraine, even though it wasn’t supplied before”. But no new commitments were detailed.

  • There have been at least 18,955 civilian casualties since the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, according to the United Nations Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights (OHCHR). The OHCHR released the report citing the number of casualties as being 7,199 killed and 11,756 injured, but believes the actual figures are considerably higher.

  • Yevgeny Prigozhin, the head of Russia’s Wagner mercenary group, said on Tuesday that the country’s defence minister and chief of general staff were depriving his fighters of munitions, accusing them of trying to destroy Wagner. “There is simply direct opposition going on,” Prigozhin said in a voice message posted on his Telegram channel. He said it was “an attempt to destroy Wagner” and equated it to treason.

  • Belarus said on Tuesday that there was a significant grouping of Ukrainian troops massed near its border and warned that this posed a threat to its security. “At present, a significant grouping of the Ukrainian army is concentrated in the immediate vicinity of the Belarusian-Ukrainian section of the state border,” the defence ministry said in a post on Telegram. “The probability of armed provocations, which can escalate into border incidents, has been high for a long time,” it said, adding that it would take “measures to adequately respond.”

  • Japan is to provide $5.5bn in financial aid to Ukraine, the prime minister, Fumio Kishida, has said, ahead of a G7 video conference on Friday that will include the Ukrainian president.

  • The Italian prime minister, Giorgia Meloni, is in Kyiv to meet with Zelenskiy, and reiterate Italy’s support for the war-torn country. Tuesday’s trip is seen as one of the most significant made by Meloni since she came to power in October and comes a week after her coalition partner Silvio Berlusconi, the Forza Italia leader, blamed Zelenskiy for Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

Updated

Isobel Koshiw reports for the Guardian from Kyiv:

Ukraine’s energy sector said on Tuesday it has managed to stabilise the electricity grid after over three months of power cuts following Russia’s bombardment.

On Monday night, streets and parks across the capital Kyiv were lit for the first time since November. Until now, Kyivians were had become used to walking in the pitch black, using their phone lights or torches to guide them. Many people wore reflective armbands so that cars would see them crossing the street. Dog walkers purchased light-up, rechargeable dog collars. Even Kyiv’s main streets and roads only had intermittent lighting throughout the winter and traffic lights would regularly be turned off.

Through January and late December, most Ukrainians had electricity for between four to eight hours a day.

Ukrenergo, Ukraine’s state energy company, said in a statement that the situation was stable and the country had almost stopped importing energy.

“Due to favourable weather conditions and the gradual increase in daylight hours, power plants that rely on renewable energy sources and operate mainly during the day have increased their output,” the company said on Telegram.

No region in Ukraine was currently subject to cuts due to the grid’s lack of of capacity, it said, which had been the case up until last week. It warned, however, that blackouts and cuts were still possible if consumption increased as in Odesa and Lviv regions where repair work continues to “eliminate restrictions”.

You can read more about Russian attacks on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure here: Ukrainians endure grim winter as Russia destroys infrastructure – in maps

Before his big speech outside Warsaw castle this evening, Joe Biden will meet the Polish president, Andrzej Duda, at 12.30 GMT. The bilateral relationship has become very close since the full-scale invasion of neighbouring Ukraine a year ago, and Jake Sullivan, the US national security adviser went out of his way this morning to compliment Poland on its role, and said that the two leaders would discuss the bolstering of Nato’s eastern flank.

“Poland has been a critical player in that it has been critical to hosting very large numbers of Ukrainian refugees. It has been a critical logistics hub for military assistance going into Ukraine, and it has been a strong voice as part of a unified western effort to try to ensure that there are no cracks – that the west and the larger coalition of nations holds together strongly, for as long as it takes,” Sullivan said.

In the year since the invasion, Nato has doubled its forces on its eastern flank, and last June, Biden announced the establishment of a permanent base in Poland. Sullivan said the two presidents would talk about further strengthening Nato defences in the east.

“There is the larger question of NATO force posture and the continuing commitment of the United States to play a critical role in the defence of the eastern flank allies, including Poland,” Sullivan said. “So the president will have the opportunity to reinforce his fundamental message from last year that he intends to defend every inch of Nato territory and that he will do so not just with rhetoric, but with the kinds of actions where we put in place the necessary capabilities.”

A new Guardian analysis of Institute for the Study of War data shows that, after once having seized as much as 51,000 sq miles (132,000 sq km) of Ukrainian land, Russia has since lost a fifth of this.

It now controls 40,000 sq miles of Ukrainian land, entirely in the south and east. This is 17% of Ukraine – a country of 230,000 sq miles, or twice the size of Italy.

The analysis shows that Russia still controls a majority of the land in each of the four regions it attempted to illegally annex last year — Luhansk, Kherson, Zaporizhzhia and Donetsk.

However, since the annexation on 30 September, Russian forces have lost land in all of these regions except for Zaporizhzhia. This is especially clear in Kherson, where Russia controlled 93% of its land in June but now holds 73%.

The trend has reversed slightly in Donetsk over the last two months. After controlling 51.5% in mid-December, Russia is pushing more in this eastern area and now controls 54% of the land.

The Guardian’s interactive team has created a guide reviewing the first year of the war in Ukraine, which you can view below.

Putin announces Russia to pull out of New Start nuclear treaty with US

That was a long speech by Russian president Vladimir Putin, at around one hour and 45 minutes. The only real new news line that came out of it was in a section towards the end when Putin said he was suspending Russia’s participation in the New Start treaty with the US.

After accusing the US and Nato of failing to cooperate, he said: “In this regard, I am forced to announce today that Russia is suspending its participation in the strategic offensive arms treaty.”

Putin said that Russia would carry out new nuclear tests if the US did so.

Updated

Putin finished his speech by praising people who had donated to support fighters on the frontline in Ukraine and refugees, and said:

Russia will respond to any challenges. Because we are all a single country. We are one big united people. We are confident in our power. Truth is with us. Thank you.

Putin has now finished his national address to the assembled joint houses of the Russian parliament, which has been televised across the country.

Russian President Vladimir Putin is seen on a TV screen delivering his annual state of the nation address at a bar in Saint Petersburg.
Russian President Vladimir Putin is seen on a TV screen delivering his annual state of the nation address at a bar in St Petersburg. Photograph: Olga Maltseva/AFP/Getty Images

Updated

It sounds like Vladimir Putin may be beginning to wind up his speech, which began an hour and 45 minutes ago. Putin has said:

Dear colleagues, dear citizens of Russia, today we are going through a very difficult path, and we are overcoming all difficulties together. It could not be any other way, because we are upholding the example of our ancestors, and this is passed from one generation to another, the dedication to our unity, to our motherland.

That unity has been demonstrated since the first days of the special military operation. Hundreds of volunteers came in order to fight for the truth for the justice for interests of people in Donbas. And now, shoulder to shoulder we have fighters of all types, from all parts of Asia. Their prayers are in different languages, but all of them are fighting for truth, for the motherland.

Putin has just said the west is either “cynical or stupid” with its approach to arms control and Russia. He said the relationship between Russia and the US has deteriorated, and “this was the initiative of the US”.

He said “step by step they started to destroy the system of world securityand arms control.”

However, Putin rules out Russia making a first nuclear strike.

Putin is still talking, and has returned to international affairs after a long period talking about domestic issues. He is complaining that the US and Nato have not been allowing nuclear weapons inspections. He says that US, French and UK nuclear weapons are all aimed at Russia. “The latest statements of their leaders confirms this,” he said.

Anton Gerashchenko, an adviser to Ukraine’s ministry of interior affairs, has posted to Telegram to criticise part of Vladimir Putin’s speech this morning where he boasted of Russia’s record grain crop. Gerashchenko wrote:

The insolent thief said that Russian farmers harvested a “record harvest” last year. And he shyly kept silent about the fact that it was stolen Ukrainian grain, which was transported to the Russian Federation by freight trains.

Italy’s prime minister Giorgia Meloni has arrived in Kyiv. Ukraine’s state broadcastyer Suspilne has published a video clip of her arriving via train.

Justin McCurry reports for the Guardian from Tokyo:

Japan is to provide $5.5 billion in financial aid to Ukraine, the prime minister, Fumio Kishida, has said, ahead of a G7 video conference on Friday that will include the Ukrainian president, Volodymyr Zelenskiy.

As this year’s G7 president, Japan is hoping to put the war in Ukraine at the top of the agenda when the group’s leaders meet in Hiroshima in May.

Japan has joined western countries in imposing sanctions on Russia, and has provided financial support worth $600m along with hundreds of millions of dollars in emergency humanitarian assistance, according to Kishida’s office.

Self-imposed restrictions on arms exports in place for half a century prevent Japan from sending lethal weapons to Ukraine, but it has provided defensive equipment, such as surveillance drones, helmets and bulletproof jackets, and has accepted about 2,000 Ukrainian refugees since the war broke out.

Kishida told a symposium this week that “there is still a need to assist people whose livelihoods have been destroyed by the war, and to restore destroyed infrastructure”.

The online G7 meeting will be held on Friday, the first anniversary of the Russian invasion.

“This year, Japan, as G7 president and a non-permanent member of the UN security council, will support Ukraine in its fight against Russian aggression and lead the world’s efforts to uphold a free and open international order based on the rule of law,” Kishida said.

Kishida is keen to bolster Japan’s global presence through support for Ukraine, and has indicated that he is willing to visit Kyiv for talks with Zelenskiy. Reports from Ukraine suggest Zelenskiy is open to the idea of joining G7 leaders in Hiroshima, where the itinerary could include a visit to a peace museum devoted to the August 1945 atomic bombing of the city.

Some analysts believe a visit to Ukraine by Kishida, who represents a constituency in Hiroshima, would add momentum to his efforts to prioritise nuclear disarmament in the runup to the leaders’ summit.

Updated

Vladimir Putin’s speech to Russia’s political and military elite on Tuesday showed he has lost touch with reality, a senior aide to Ukraine’s president said.

“He is in a completely different reality, where there is no opportunity to conduct a dialogue about justice and international law,” political adviser Mykhailo Podolyak told Reuters.

The Russian president continues to speak. He is currently talking about higher education reform.

Updated

While the Russian president is speaking in Moscow, Warsaw is preparing for a speech later today by Vladimir Putin’s US counterpart, Joe Biden.

Russian President Vladimir Putin delivers his annual state of the nation address at the Gostiny Dvor conference centre in central Moscow.
Russian President Vladimir Putin delivers his annual state of the nation address at the Gostiny Dvor conference centre in central Moscow. Photograph: Mikhail Metzel/SPUTNIK/AFP/Getty Images
Preparations for US President Joe Biden’s speech to the Polish people outside the Royal Castle in Warsaw.
Preparations for Joe Biden’s speech to the Polish people outside the Royal Castle in Warsaw. Photograph: Paweł Wodzyński/East News/Rex/Shutterstock

Updated

Vladimir Putin is continuing his televised address to parliament, which has lasted over an hour so far. He is currently talking about the organisation of local government in Russia.

Belarus said on Tuesday that there was a significant grouping of Ukrainian troops massed near its border and warned that this posed a threat to its security.

“At present, a significant grouping of the Ukrainian army is concentrated in the immediate vicinity of the Belarusian-Ukrainian section of the state border,” Reuters reports the defence ministry said in a post on Telegram.

“The probability of armed provocations, which can escalate into border incidents, has been high for a long time,” it said, adding that it would take “measures to adequately respond” but would act in a restrained way.

The US national security adviser, Jake Sullivan, has been talking to reporters during at least some of Putin’s speech. He said as far as he knew, Joe Biden was not watching the speech either, and stressed that Biden’s own address this evening outside Warsaw’s royal castle is in no way intended to be some sort of response to the Russian leader. Sullivan said that Putin appeared to have brought his speech forward to coincide with Biden’s visit to eastern Europe.

“We did not set this speech up as some kind of head-to-head. This is not a rhetorical contest with anyone else. This is an affirmative statement of values and vision for what the world we’re both trying to build and defend should look like,” Sullivan said.

“The speech is something he has wanted to do now for some time, building on the remarks that he gave here in Poland nearly one year ago. What he wants to have the opportunity to do is set Russia’s war in Ukraine in a larger context,” he added, billing this evening’s speech as “vintage Joe Biden”.

“His remarks will speak specifically to the conflict in Ukraine but of course they will also speak to the larger contest at stake between those aggressors who are trying to destroy fundamental principles and those democracies we’re pulling together to try to uphold [them].”

Updated

Putin continues to talk on economic matters. He is currently criticising those who spent their money in the west rather than in Russia and who have now lost their possessions, saying that he had warned them. Here are some of the images of the address.

Russian President Putin delivers his annual address to the Federal Assembly in Moscow.
President Putin delivers his annual address to the Federal Assembly in Moscow. Photograph: Sputnik/Reuters
Putin is seen on an outdoor screen on the facade of a building delivering his annual state of the nation address.
Putin is seen on an outdoor screen on the facade of a building delivering his annual state of the nation address. Photograph: Kirill Kudryavtsev/AFP/Getty Images
The audience for the address.
The audience for the address. Photograph: Mikhail Metzel/Sputnik/Kremlin pool/EPA

Updated

Russian state media websites broadcasting Vladimir Putin’s address to the country’s two houses of parliaments on Tuesday suffered an outage during his speech, Reuters reports.

Reuters journalists in multiple locations were unable to access the All-Russia State Television and Radio Broadcasting Company (VGTRK) website or the Smotrim live-streaming platform for periods during the speech.

A message on the VGTRK website said that “technical works were being carried out” while the Smotrim website was not loading.

The state-run RIA Novosti news agency said the outage was the result of a distributed denial of service (DDoS) attack.

Updated

Putin’s speech is continuing, but is currently very focused on domestic issues and some precise details about new financial schemes for industry and business.

Olexander Scherba, Ukraine’s ambassador to Austria, has not minced his words in response to this Putin speech, calling the Russian president a liar.

Putin at it again, with his usual set of grievances. The biggest one: the west and Ukraine were ready for a war with Russia. As if there was no Russian ultimatum. As if Macron, Scholz and company didn’t spend 2021 traveling to Moscow, begging Russia not to do it. What a liar.

Putin’s speech is now very much in the territory of economic production numbers at the moment. He accused the west of “theft” of Russia’s currency reserves, and says “the Russian economy has overcome all these risks”.

Updated

Putin: the initiators of anti-Russian economic sanctions are punishing themselves

Putin says the west has begun “not just a military and information, but an economic aggression” against Russia. “They have not achieved success in either of these areas,” he says.

“The initiators of the sanctions are punishing themselves,” he said. He went on to say:

They provoked a growth of prices in their own countries, the closures of factories, the collapse of energy sector, and they are telling their citizens that is the Russians who are to blame.

Putin is now talking about Russia’s reduced GDP figures, but claims that instead of the Russian economy collapsing, it has been restructured, and Russia still does business with many areas of the world.

My colleague Isobel Koshiw’s verdict is that the speech so far is “less than conciliatory”.

Putin’s speech has now wandered into a lengthy section about local bureaucracy supporting the loved ones of those killed in the war on Ukraine, and has announced a special fund to help relatives.

Putin to citizens of 'annexed' Ukrainian territory: 'You yourself determined your future'

Referring to the widely derided referendums in the partially occupied areas of Ukraine late last year, Putin said:

I would like to express a special gratitude to the citizens of Luhansk, Donetsk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions. You yourself determined your future. You made your choice despite the threats of terror of the Nazis. Next to you there were military actions taking place, and you made the choice to be together with Russia. To be together with your motherland.

The Russian president has thanked “military journalists” who, he says, are “risking their lives to tell the truth to the whole world”.

Updated

Putin is now thanking those in the Russian armed forces who have been fighting in Ukraine. He says there are too many people and units involved to name them all and he did not want to risk omitting someone. He praises mothers, wives, doctors, nurses, railway workers, engineers, agricultural workers for their role in helping the war effort.

Putin has said, without providing any evidence, that in the west “even paedophilia is announced as a normal thing.”

He says the west recognises same sex marriage. He says “That’s fine. They’re adults. They have the right to live their lives. We are always very tolerant about this in Russia.”

But, he says, scripture says marriage is between a man and a woman, and he also cites media reports that the Anglican church was considering gender neutral terms for God.

This is very familiar territory for a Putin speech. He accuses the west of trying to destabilise family life in Russia.

Putin: Ukrainian people were 'hostages of their western masters'

Putin claims the Ukrainian people had become “hostages of their western masters” who occupied the country in political, economic and military terms. He says “the regime is not serving their national interest. They are serving the interests of foreign powers.”

He says the west is trying to turn a local conflict into a global conflict and “we will react in an appropriate way. We are talking about the existence of our country.”

Updated

Putin says the west will use anyone – terrorists, Nazis, “even the devil himself” – in order to fight Russia.

As is often the case in his speeches, Putin is now giving a history lesson, and says that in the 1930s the west opened the door to Nazi Germany, and this goes back even further. He is now talking about the Austro-Hungarian empire.

He says the west supported “an anti-state coup” in Ukraine in 2014. He says that one of the Ukrainian army units is named after a German Nazi unit, and that “those in power choose to close their eyes to this”.

Updated

Putin accuses the west of “an endless flow of accusations against Russia” at the recent Munich security conference, and says “the west released the genie from the bottle” as a result of wars, and accuses the west of perpetrating multiple coups.

Putin: 'They started the war, and we used force in order to stop it'

“We had no doubt,” Putin says, that in February 2022 “everything was prepared” for a punitive action by Kyiv on Donbas. “All of this was completely against the documents accepted by the UN security council.”

“I would like to repeat, they started the war, and we used force in order to stop it,” Putin says.

He said the objective of the west was unlimited power, and that Sevastapol was obviously the next target after Donbas.

Updated

The Russian president said they were open to dialogue with the west and were open to an equal system of security, but “in response we were getting dishonest answers” and specific actions to expand Nato and deploy new anti-missile systems in Europe. He says “the whole planet is dotted” with US bases.

Putin has started by setting out why Russia started what he terms is the “special military operation”, accusing the west and Nato of publicly talking about supplying nuclear weapons to Ukraine in advance of Russian’s invasion. He accused the west of “playing a dirty game” with people and with Ukraine. He cited Yugoslavia, Iraq and Syria and “centuries of colonialism and dictatorship”.

He said the west deceived their own people with “total unprincipled lies” about what was happening in Donbas.

Russian President Vladimir Putin has begun his address to parliament.

Andrew Roth reports for the Guardian from Moscow:

Russian television is leading with breathless coverage before Vladimir Putin’s “state of the nation” speech on Tuesday, which takes place ahead of the one-year anniversary of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

“We know the president will take the speech himself to the podium,” said Pavel Zarubin, a Kremlin correspondent on state-run television, during a live broadcast that began hours before Putin’s speech. “We all know that he can make changes to the text just moments before he gives the speech. And only Putin knows what he is going to say today.”

“Unbelievably fascinating details,” an anchor said after the report, which included details of the blue carpet that Putin will trod on his way to the stage at the Gostiny Dvor centre. Guests at the event will include Russian politicians, soldiers and other pro-Kremlin activists.

The Kremlin has organised a patriotic concert at the Luzhniki stadium and the legislature is set to meet for extraordinary sessions on Wednesday, prompting rumours that Putin could make a formal declaration of war or announce other changes to Russia’s military posture against the West that will require official ratification.

Pro-war Telegram channels have suggested that Russia will increase its use of aviation in the war in Ukraine, or announce an “anti-western coalition” including China. Even less likely scenarios include a general mobilisation of the population for the war effort.

State-run television had posted a countdown clock to the speech beginning 24 hours before Putin was set to take the stage at noon on Tuesday. City governments have also said they’ll be showing excerpts from the speech on large public screens.

The Kremlin gave an extremely subdued response to Joe Biden’s visit to Kyiv on Monday but analysts said that the trip was an unwelcome reminder that Putin has yet to visit Donetsk or Luhansk since launching the war last year. Biden is set to speak shortly after Putin later on Tuesday.

Updated

Russian President Vladimir Putin to address parliament

The Russian President Vladimir Putin is to make an address to the joint houses of the Russian parliament. It is the first time he has done so since last addressing them in 2021, and the first time since the commencement of what Russia calls its “special military operation” in Ukraine, which began nearly a year ago.

Moscow correspondent Andrew Roth is watching it for the Guardian, and we will bring you the key quotes and analysis as it comes in.

More details soon …

Yevgeny Prigozhin, the head of Russia’s Wagner mercenary group, said on Tuesday that the country’s defence minister and chief of general staff were depriving his fighters of munitions, accusing them of trying to destroy Wagner.

“There is simply direct opposition going on,” Reuters reports Prigozhin said in a voice message posted on his Telegram channel. He said it was “an attempt to destroy Wagner” and equated it to treason.

The statement comes ahead of Vladimir Putin’s address to the Russian parliament, which is scheduled to start at 9am GMT.

Updated

Angela Giuffrida reports for the Guardian from Rome:

The Italian prime minister, Giorgia Meloni, is heading to Kyiv to meet the Ukrainian president, Volodymyr Zelenskiy, and reiterate Italy’s support for the war-torn country, as she navigates tensions on the issue within her right wing alliance and a divided public opinion.

Tuesday’s trip is seen as one of the most significant made by Meloni since she came to power in October and comes a week after her coalition partner Silvio Berlusconi, the Forza Italia leader, blamed Zelenskiy for Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

The office of Meloni, who met her Polish counterpart on Monday evening, has not released details of the trip for security reasons.

Her visit carries symbolic significance, given that it comes a day after the US president, Joe Biden, made a surprise trip to the Ukrainian capital.

Italian prime minister, Giorgia Meloni, in Poland on Monday.
Italian prime minister, Giorgia Meloni, in Poland on Monday. Photograph: Fot Tedi/Newspix Pl/Newspix/ZUMA Press/REX/Shutterstock

“It is a really important trip for Meloni, as she needs to show her reliability to Zelenskiy, but more so to her US and European partners,” said Sofia Ventura, a politics professor at the University of Bologna. “And she needs to do this knowing that her two allies are unreliable due to their relations with Russia. The spotlight is on Kyiv because of Biden’s visit, and will linger for Meloni, so she needs to show that she can match up.”

Read more here: Giorgia Meloni heads to Ukraine amid tensions within Italian coalition

Ukraine’s state broadcaster Suspilne has this round-up of news from overnight on its official Telegram channel:

During the night, the Russian army attacked the Kherson community. In Dnipropetrovsk region and Mykolaiv region, the night passed without shelling.

During the past day, three people were killed in Donetsk region by shelling of the Russian army, five more residents of the region were injured. Two people died in the Kherson region.

The Russian army continues its offensive in five directions in the east. The defence forces of Ukraine carried out 16 strikes during the day on the areas of concentration of personnel and military equipment of the Russians.

The claims have not been independently verified.

Russia’s state-owned news agency Tass is carrying some preamble to Vladimir Putin’s parliamentary address today. It notes that the last time the Russian president addressed a similar message to parliament was in April 2021. It reports:

Putin will announce the next message shortly before the anniversary of the special military operation in Ukraine. It was the decision to start it that became the catalyst for huge negative changes in Russia’s relations with the countries of the west. On 24 February, the EU is preparing to publish its tenth package of anti-Russian sanctions. The US is also planning to announce another set of restrictions against Russia this week.

At the same time, without abandoning attempts to weaken the Russian economy, the collective west continues to pump weapons into Ukraine. Moreover, US president, Joe Biden, considered it necessary on the eve of Putin’s speech to personally fly to Kyiv and, following negotiations with Ukrainian leader Vladimir Zelenskiy, announce the allocation of another $500m military aid package to the country. In the expert community, such a step by the American leader was considered evidence of the intention to further aggravate relations with Russia.

On the contents of the speech, Tass quotes Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov: “Everyone is waiting for the message in the hope of hearing an assessment of what is happening, an assessment of the special military operation, an assessment of the international situation and the president’s vision of how we are coping with this and how we will go further.”

As for length, you may need to block out more than an hour in your diary. Tass reports that “TV channels in their schedule laid down an hour for broadcasting the upcoming event. However, according to a Kremlin spokesperson, ‘this is a formality’ and Putin may speak longer.” It notes:

For example, last time – in April 2021 – the president’s speech lasted one hour and 19 minutes. With the longest message – one hour 55 minutes – Putin delivered in 2018. The shortest speech – 48 minutes - he delivered twice – in 2004 and 2005. On average, Putin’s speech took one hour and seven minutes.

Updated

A little more on what we expect from US president Joe Biden’s visit to Poland here from Reuters. It reports that Marcin Przydacz, a foreign affairs adviser to Poland’s president, has said Biden and Andrzej Duda will discuss reinforcing Poland’s security and increasing the Nato presence in the country.

“[We will discuss] the security of the Polish state and allied cooperation with the USA, also within Nato, what can we do to make the eastern flank, including Poland, safer,” Przydacz told TVN 24. “It is no secret that we will talk about increasing the presence, also in terms of infrastructure, of Nato.”

Updated

Nearly 19,000 casualties recorded in Ukraine, UN says

There have been at least 18,955 civilian casualties since the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, according to the United Nations Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights (OHCHR).

The OHCHR released the report citing the number of casualties as being 7,199 killed and 11,756 injured, but believes the actual figures are considerably higher.

From 24 February 2022, when the Russian Federation’s armed attack against Ukraine started, to 12 February 2023, the Office of the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights (OHCHR) recorded 18,955 civilian casualties in the country: 7,199 killed and 11,756 injured.”

A total of 697 of the civilian casualties occurred in January 2023 where data indicated that violence continued along the 1,200km front line, but was primarily concentrated in Donetsk, Luhansk and Zaporizhzhia regions.

Throughout January 2023, there was a very high intensity, and worsening trend, of damage being inflicted on both medical and educational facilities, the OHCHR said.

These incidents, and continued civilian casualties are likely largely due to Russia’s lack of discrimination in the use of artillery and other area weapon systems.

Most of the civilian casualties recorded were caused by the use of explosive weapons with wide area effects, including shelling from heavy artillery, multiple launch rocket systems, missiles and air strikes, the OHCHR said, adding that it believes that the actual figures are considerably higher.

Updated

Belarusian leader Alexander Lukashenko has reportedly ordered the formation of a new volunteer territorial defence so everyone knows how to “handle weapons” and be ready to respond to an act of aggression and keep public order in peacetime.

Reuters reports Lukashenko told a meeting of his security council on Monday:

The situation is not easy. I have said more than once: every man – and not only a man – should be able to at least handle weapons.

At least in order to protect his family, if needed, his home, his own piece of land and – if necessary – his country.”

Lukashenko, who allowed Russia to use Belarus to send troops into Ukraine a year ago, has often said his army would fight only if Belarus was attacked. He has also said the “experience” in Ukraine necessitates additional defence.

“In case of an act of aggression, the response will be fast, harsh and appropriate,” Lukashenko said.

Defence minister Viktor Khrenin said the territorial defence force would have 100,000-150,000 volunteers, or more if needed. The paramilitary formation will be ideally in every village and town.

The country’s professional army has about 48,000 troops and some 12,000 state border troops, according to the 2022 International Institute for Strategic Studies’ Military Balance.

Updated

Just a quick snap here that Joe Biden will reportedly speak in Warsaw on Tuesday afternoon, the White House has confirmed.

Biden will today meet Polish President Andrzej Duda to discuss collective efforts to support Ukraine and thank Poland for helping the US and other countries facilitate deliveries of military and humanitarian assistance.

In the evening, he will give a speech on how the US has helped rally the world to support Ukraine as the war enters its second year with no end in sight.

“President Biden will make it clear that the United States will continue to stand with Ukraine, as you’ve heard him say many times, for as long as it takes,” said John Kirby, the White House national security spokesperson.

China says certain countries must stop 'fuelling the fire'

China’s new foreign minister has accused the US of shifting blame for the Ukraine war on to China, in an apparent pushback against warnings from Washington that China is considering supplying weapons to Russia.

Speaking on Tuesday morning, at the launch of a Chinese government paper on its global security initiative, Qin Gang said China was “deeply concerned” about the war in Ukraine escalating and possibly “spiralling out of control”.

Beijing signed a no-limits partnership with Moscow just weeks before the invasion of Ukraine one year ago. Since then, it has refused to condemn the invasion and some senior Chinese officials have offered explicit support for Russia’s aims. However it has presented itself as a neutral party, accusing the US and Nato of fuelling the conflict.

Since the outbreak of the crisis, China has taken an objective and impartial stance based on the merit of the issue,” Qin said on Tuesday.

We urge certain countries to immediately stop fuelling the fire, stop shifting blame to China, and stop hyping up Ukraine today, Taiwan tomorrow.”

China’s top diplomat to visit Moscow

China’s top diplomat, Wang Yi, is due to visit Moscow shortly, and may possibly even meet Putin, according to Russian officials.

A source close to the visit organisers told Russian state media outlet Tass that Wang Yi “is expected to arrive on Tuesday”.

“We would like a political solution to provide a peaceful and sustainable framework to Europe,” Wang Yi said ahead of his visit during a stop in Hungary.

Russian presidential spokesperson Dmitry Peskov told state media: “We do not rule out a meeting between Mr Wang Yi and the president. He will indeed be in Moscow.”

Over the weekend, US secretary of state, Antony Blinken, warned against Beijing providing material support to Moscow’s invasion, prompting China to tell the US to keep out of its relationship with Russia.

Chinese weapons supplies to Russia would risk a potential escalation of the Ukraine war into a confrontation between Russia and China on the one side and Ukraine and the US-led Nato military alliance on the other.

Zelenskiy also warned that there will be a “world war” if China decides to support Russia in its war on Ukraine.

Zelenskiy said Kyiv would like Beijing “to be on our side” in an interview with Die Welt.

If China allies itself with Russia, there will be a world war, and I do think that China is aware of that,” he said.

Updated

Biden promises Kyiv extra $500m in military aid

The US will deliver a new package of additional US aid to Ukraine worth $500m (£415m) including artillery ammunition, anti-armour systems, and air surveillance radars.

Joe Biden made the announcement during a surprise visit to Kyiv on Monday.

The defence package includes anti-armour systems, air surveillance radars and more ammunition for “US-provided Himars and Howitzers that Ukraine is using so effectively to defend their country,” US secretary of state Antony Blinken said in a statement.

US President Joe Biden walks next to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy as he arrives for a visit in Kyiv on Monday.
US President Joe Biden walks next to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy as he arrives for a visit in Kyiv on Monday. Photograph: Ukraine Presidency/ZUMA Press Wire/REX/Shutterstock

It also includes Javelin anti-armour systems, about 2,000 anti-armour rockets, four forward-observation vehicles, two tactical vehicles, munitions, medical supplies and other equipment, according to the Biden administration.

“Russia alone could end its war today,” Blinken said. “Until it does so, we will stand united with Ukraine for as long as it takes to strengthen its military on the battlefield so that they will be in the strongest possible position at any future negotiating table.”

Amid the diplomacy taking place today across Europe, the war in Ukraine rages on.

Here are some of the latest images to come out of Ukraine today.

Three armed Ukrainian servicemen pictured during large-scale military exercises in the Chonobyl Exclusion Zone, Kyiv region, northern Ukraine.
Three armed Ukrainian servicemen pictured during large-scale military exercises in the Chonobyl Exclusion Zone, Kyiv region, northern Ukraine. Photograph: Ruslan Kaniuka/Ukrinform/NurPhoto/REX/Shutterstock
Ukrainian servicemen cover their ears as they fire a mortar toward the Russian position on a frontline not far from Bakhmut in Donetsk, Ukraine.
Ukrainian servicemen cover their ears as they fire a mortar toward the Russian position on a frontline not far from Bakhmut in Donetsk, Ukraine. Photograph: Anatolii Stepanov/AFP/Getty Images
A Ukrainian soldier warms himself beside a fire in a dugout bunker in the southern Donbas region, Ukraine.
A Ukrainian soldier warms himself beside a fire in a dugout bunker in the southern Donbas region, Ukraine. Photograph: Scott Peterson/Getty Images

Putin to deliver major war update in state of the nation address

Vladimir Putin will today deliver his state of the nation address to Russia’s Federal Assembly where he will address both houses of parliament and set out his aims for the second year of his invasion of Ukraine.

The Russian president will update Russia’s political and military elite on the state of what he calls his “special military operation” in Ukraine with many eager to know what his plans are for the year ahead.

The address comes at a highly symbolic time, almost a year to the day when Putin announced Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov told state television:

At such a crucial and very complicated juncture in our development, our lives, everyone is waiting for a message in the hope of hearing an assessment of what is happening, an assessment of the special military operation.”

Putin will also give his analysis of the international situation and outline his vision of Russia’s development after the west imposed sweeping sanctions on it, the Kremlin said.

The speech is due to begin at 9am GMT in central Moscow.

The Kremlin is also planning to hold a celebratory concert at the Luzhniki Stadium later in the day, and then to convene extraordinary sessions of the Duma and Federation Council on Wednesday.

Biden arrives in Poland

Joe Biden arrived in Warsaw late on Monday evening where he is set to meet with Poland’s President Andrzej Duda, along with other leaders of countries on Nato’s eastern flank.

During a surprise visit to Kyiv ahead of his planned trip to Poland, the US president said:

When (Russian President Vladimir) Putin launched his invasion nearly one year ago, he thought Ukraine was weak and the West was divided. He thought he could outlast us. But he was dead wrong.

The cost that Ukraine has had to pay is extraordinarily high. Sacrifices have been far too great. ... We know that there will be difficult days and weeks and years ahead.”

Biden is set to deliver a speech on how the US has helped rally the world to support Ukraine and stress American support for Nato’s eastern flank.

US President Joe Biden arrives at Warsaw Chopin Airport on Monday evening, 20 February.
US President Joe Biden arrives at Warsaw Chopin Airport on Monday evening, 20 February. Photograph: Omar Marques/Getty Images

Summary and welcome

Hello and welcome back to the Guardian’s live coverage of the war in Ukraine. I’m Samantha Lock and I’ll be bringing you all the latest developments as they unfold.

Vladimir Putin is set to deliver his anticipated state of the nation address to Russia’s Federal Assembly due to begin at 9am GMT in central Moscow.

The Russian president will update Russia’s political and military elite on the state of what he calls his “special military operation” in Ukraine and set out his aims for the second year of his invasion. The address comes at a highly symbolic time, almost a year to the day when Putin announced Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

Meanwhile, Joe Biden has arrived in Warsaw where he is set to meet with Poland’s President Andrzej Duda, along with other leaders of countries on Nato’s eastern flank.

It’s 7am in Kyiv. Here’s where we stand:

  • Joe Biden visited Kyiv on Monday to announce a new package of additional US aid to Ukraine worth $500m (£415m) including artillery ammunition, anti-armour systems, and air surveillance radars. The timing of his visit – before a planned address by Vladimir Putin on Tuesday – was seen as a deliberate rebuke of the Russian president.

  • The US president arrived in Warsaw late on Monday evening where he is set to meet with Poland’s President Andrzej Duda, along with other leaders of countries on Nato’s eastern flank.

  • Volodymyr Zelenskiy said he and Biden spoke about “long-range weapons and the weapons that may still be supplied to Ukraine, even though it wasn’t supplied before”. But no new commitments were detailed.

  • EU foreign ministers discussed jointly procuring ammunition to provide to Ukraine during a meeting in Brussels. “It is the most urgent issue. If we fail on that, the result of the war is in danger,” the EU’s top diplomat, Josep Borrell, said before the meeting. Borrell said the EU needs to ensure that Ukraine has enough ammunition to continue its fight against the Russian invasion, regarding the advance payments scheme as a vital medium-term solution, but wants ammunition delivered from national stocks now.

  • Vladimir Putin’s state of the nation speech on Tuesday will be accompanied by a celebratory concert at the Luzhniki Stadium on the same day. He is then set to convene an extraordinary sessions of the Duma and Federation Council on Wednesday.

  • China’s top diplomat, Wang Yi, is expected to visit Moscow with proposals for a political settlement to the war. Over the weekend, US secretary of state, Antony Blinken, warned against Beijing providing material support to Moscow’s invasion, prompting China to tell the US to keep out of its relationship with Russia. “We would like a political solution to provide a peaceful and sustainable framework to Europe,” Wang said ahead of his visit during a stop in Hungary.

  • Zelenskiy also warned that there will be a “world war” if China decides to support Russia in its war on Ukraine. Zelenskiy said Kyiv would like Beijing “to be on our side” in an interview with Die Welt. “If China allies itself with Russia, there will be a world war, and I do think that China is aware of that,” he said.

  • Russia claimed its forces have taken control of a village near Bakhmut, the eastern Ukrainian city home to the longest-running battle of Moscow’s offensive. The Russian defence ministry said that volunteer fighters had “fully liberated” the settlement of Paraskoviivka with the support of regular forces, including paratroopers and artillery. The statement did not mention Russia’s mercenary group Wagner which claimed to have captured village on Friday.

  • The head of the Russian mercenary Wagner group, Yevgeny Prigozhin, has acknowledged a “major problem” with ammunition supplies for his fighters, accusing Russian officials of deliberately denying his fighters sufficient ammunition. In an emotional seven-minute-long audio message published on his official Telegram channel, he said he was required to “apologise and obey” to someone “high up” who he has a “difficult relationship with” in order to secure ammunition.

A local resident walks past a heavily damaged building in Izyum, Ukraine, on 20 February.
A local resident walks past a heavily damaged building in Izyum, Ukraine, on 20 February. Photograph: Sergey Bobok/AFP/Getty Images
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