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The Guardian - US
The Guardian - US
World
Rebecca Ratcliffe (now), Lois Beckett , Gloria Oladipo , Léonie Chao-Fong, Sam Jones, Oliver Holmes and Samantha Lock (earlier)

Biden says diplomacy still possible; OSCE reports more attacks in east – as it happened

Ukraine Russia United States Joe Biden Moscow Vladimir Putin Belarus Donetsk European Union Germany
biden at podium
Joe Biden gives an update on Russia's buildup of military troops on the border of Ukraine on Friday. Photograph: Oliver Contreras/UPI/Rex/Shutterstock

This blog is now closed. For updates on the Ukraine crisis you can go to our new blog here:

Russia’s leader will oversee major military drills along Ukraine’s borders on Saturday, according to Agence France-Presse, while Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky was due to travel to Germany to meet Western leaders.

Zelensky was expected to meet with US Vice President Kamala Harris, AFP reported. However, Biden, who has said he is “convinced” Putin has decided to invade Ukraine, has suggested that “in the pursuit of a diplomatic solution, it may be the wise choice” for Zelensky to stay.

The US says it believes an attack by Russia is inevitable. It points to an estimated 149,000 Russian troops are stationed on Ukraine’s borders - as many as 190,000, when including the Russian-backed separatist forces.

Russia’s defence ministry announced that Putin would personally oversee previously scheduled drills involving nuclear-capable missiles on Saturday.

NATO chief Jens Stoltenberg, who attended the Munich Security Conference, has warned the size of the assembled Russian force far exceeded that needed for military drills, and that Russia had the capacity to invade without warning.

Updated

Australia would not send troops to Ukraine in the event of a Russian invasion, but would provide other forms of practical assistance, prime minister Scott Morrison said.

Morrison told reporters in Darwin on Saturday that an invasion is “regrettably inevitable”, according to a report by Australian Associated Press.

It quotes the following comments by Morrison:

Australia has not been asked or nor would we be providing support through troops or anything of that nature.

We work with our allies and partners in many other ways, and we will seek to do that with the practical things that we can do to assist those efforts.

We have had such discussions with the UK prime minister and others about how we proceed along that basis...

They cannot use the threat of war and invasion as a way of trying to leverage and negotiate other changes that they may be seeking.

This is not how free nations, democratic nations, nations in favour of peace, should behave. We have seen this before and we cannot allow it to stand.

The OSCE Special Monitoring Mission to Ukraine says it has observed “a dramatic increase” in attacks along the front line in eastern Ukraine.

In a statement, it said:

In recent days, the OSCE Special Monitoring to Ukraine (SMM) has observed a dramatic increase in kinetic activity along the contact line in eastern Ukraine, equal to the numbers of ceasefire violations reported before the July 2020 agreement on the Measures to strengthen the ceasefire took effect.

The OSCE’s Special Monitoring Mission to Ukraine has been deployed in eastern Ukraine since war broke out in 2014.

It added:

The SMM is currently following up on the allegations made by the sides, and its access to these areas must be ensured without hindrance. All corroborated and established facts continue to be made public in the SMM’s reports.

At this time of high tension, the SMM reiterates its call to the sides to strictly adhere to all of the commitments they have made, and take all necessary steps to reduce tensions and work towards immediate de-escalation for the benefit of the lives of innocent civilians on both sides of the contact line who continue to suffer from this conflict.

The OSCE reported there had been 222 ceasefire violations for the Donetsk region on Thursday, including 135 explosions, up from 189 the previous day and 24 on Tuesday.

For the Lugansk region, it reported 648 violations, including 519 explosions, up from 402 the previous day and 129 on Tuesday.

Updated

Reuters is reporting that Russia and China have watered down a G20 finance leaders’ statement on geopolitical risks to the global economy - removing a reference to “current” tensions.

Warnings of a possible war in Ukraine have prompted nervousness in the financial markets.

Here is more from Reuters’ report:

The gathering of finance ministers and central bank governors from the Group of 20 major economies was one of the most fractious since the start of the Covid-19 pandemic in 2020, according to people familiar with the discussions.

Canadian Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland strayed from the G20 economic script to issue an impassioned plea to her Russian counterparts to not invade Ukraine, warning that such action would hurt the global economy and bring “crushing” sanctions against Russia, according to two sources familiar with her remarks.

Other sources familiar with the meeting said China and Russia had objected to the reference to “current tensions” in an earlier draft communique, as well as disagreements on debt restructuring for poor countries and carbon pricing.

The group’s final communique simply said: “We will also continue to monitor major global risks, including from geopolitical tensions that are arising, and macroeconomic and financial vulnerabilities.”

As the meeting concluded, US and European stocks fell on worries that a Russian invasion of Ukraine was imminent after Russian-backed separatists announced a surprise evacuation of their breakaway regions in eastern Ukraine.

Hello, Rebecca Ratcliffe here in Bangkok, taking over from Lois Beckett.

Here’s the latest from President Biden on Twitter:

Earlier this evening, Biden said he was convinced that Putin had decided to invade Ukraine and target its capital, Kyiv - but that, until the attack began, “diplomacy is always a possibility”.

Watching TV. Waiting for a bus. The vulnerable facing violence on the front lines.

There’s been a lot of diplomatic rhetoric today about the possibility of a “catastrophic” war in Ukraine. Reporters at the front lines in eastern Ukraine, including my colleague Shaun Walker, have already been documenting the toll of violence on “the mainly elderly and vulnerable people” there.

“I just hope there isn’t going to be any more of this. I can’t sleep at night. My arms and legs are shaking, and it’s scary,” a 77-year-old man whose roof was damaged in the attacks told Walker.

Reporters for BuzzFeed reported similar anguish among the elderly, as well as the very young.

Other residents were finding different ways of coping. At a youth centre in Mariinka, Buzzfeed reported: “12-year-old twins Veronika and Yeva were hard at work on art projects in a room where rocket shrapnel had shattered a window the day before....They weren’t scared, they said, because the shelling hadn’t happened ‘in a while’ and they weren’t convinced that it would continue or grow worse.”

Updated

Summary: a day of fast-moving events that brought Ukraine closer to the brink of war

There’s been a lot of Ukraine news in the past day. Our live coverage will continue, but here’s a recap of some key events of the past few hours:

  • Joe Biden said in a speech late Friday that he is ‘convinced’ Vladimir Putin has decided to invade Ukraine, but says there’s still time for diplomacy to avert war. The invasion could come in the next days or week, the US president said. Biden said that the US and its European allies were ready to impose “severe” economic sanctions on Russia in response to an attack, but that it would not send troops to fight in Ukraine.
  • As Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskiy was reportedly still mulling whether or not he would leave the country for a conference in Germany on Saturday, Biden said that “in the pursuit of a diplomatic solution, it may be the wise choice” for him to stay.
  • Leaders of Russian-backed breakaway regions of Luhansk and Donetsk claimed to be under attack from Ukraine and ordered the mass evacuation of civilians.
  • As the US and its allies warned of “false flags” that would give a pretext for a Russian attack, a gas pipeline in Luhansk caught fire after explosions, and a second blast hit the city about 40 minutes later. Earlier on Friday, a car bomb detonated in an empty lot in Donetsk.
  • Biden called out Russian “disinformation” and said that claims in the Russian media that Ukraine was the aggressor and planning a major attack “defies basic logic” of what a country would do over 150,000 troops arrayed at its borders.
  • Reporters at the front lines in eastern Ukraine are already documenting the toll of escalating violence on civilians, many of them elderly and especially vulnerable.

Reporting from Washington and Munich, my colleagues Julian Borger and Patrick Wintour have a definitive summary of the day’s developments, from Biden’s warnings, to reports of gas pipeline explosions in eastern Ukraine, to satellite imagery of troop movements. It’s worth a read in full.

Updated

New satellite images show large deployment of helicopters in Belarus: report

The US image company Maxar said on Friday that satellite images showed a large new deployment of helicopters in Belarus and a gathering of tanks and personnel carriers not far from the Ukraine border, my colleagues Julian Borger and Patrick Wintour report.

Buzzfeed’s Christopher Miller posted some Maxar satellite images on Twitter:

White House on US call with allies: ‘Swift, coordinated economic costs on Russia’

There’s not much new in the White House summary of Joe Biden’s call with transatlantic leaders earlier today, and echoes the president’s own remarks this evening: “deep concern” over Russia’s build-up of forces, “strong support” for Ukraine’s sovereignty, a commitment to continued diplomacy, and a promise of “readiness to impose swift, coordinated economic costs on Russia should it choose further conflict”.

Biden said explicitly in his press conference earlier today that he would not send troops to fight in Ukraine.

Updated

Biden: It’s Zelenskiy’s choice whether to leave the country, but ‘wise choice’ is to stay

At Friday evening’s press conference, Joe Biden said that it was up to Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskiy to choose whether or not he would leave the country for a conference in Germany on Saturday, but that “in the pursuit of a diplomatic solution, it may be the wise choice” for him to stay.

Privately, administration officials have urged Zelenskiy to stay in Ukraine given their concerns about an imminent invasion, CNN reported.

Updated

Russia will ‘stand up’ for compatriots in eastern Ukraine, parliamentary speaker says

Another sign of the political atmosphere: Russia’s parliamentary speaker, Vyacheslav Volodin, said on his Telegram channel today that “Russia does not want war,” but that it will “stand up” for compatriots in Donetsk and Lugansk if their lives are threatened, TASS, a major Russian news agency, reported.

First reactions: Biden’s speech on Russia’s potential ‘catastrophic and needless war of choice’

Some early reactions after Biden’s press conference this evening: Is Biden hoping that Putin will want to prove him wrong on the imminence of an invasion?

Like Biden, French officials are saying the path for diplomacy is still open.

Biden: Russian claims that Ukraine is planning a Donbas attack ‘defies basic logic’

Joe Biden said that the reports in Russian media “claiming Ukraine is planning to launch a massive offensive attack in the Donbas” were “disinformation.”

“It defies basic logic to believe that the Ukrainians would choose this moment, with well over 150,000 troops arrayed on its borders, to escalate a yearlong conflict,” the US president said.

Biden highlighted Russian media’s “phony allegations of a genocide taking place in the Donbas,” as well as the shelling of a Ukrainian kindergarten yesterday, which he said Russia had “falsely asserted was carried out by Ukraine.”

These were all part of the Russian “playbook to set up a false justification to attack Ukraine,” Biden said, which the US and allies have been warning about for weeks.

Biden praised the “restraint” and “judgement” of Ukrainian troops, who “have refused to allow Russia to bait them into war.”

Biden said the US was “calling out Russia’s plans loudly and repeatedly, not because we want a conflict, but because we are doing everything in our power to remove any reason that Russia may give to justify invading Ukraine.”

Updated

Biden is ‘convinced’ Putin has decided to invade Ukraine, but says there’s still time for diplomacy

President Joe Biden said that he is “convinced” that Vladimir Putin has “made the decision” to invade Ukraine, an invasion that might come in the next days, based on US intelligence.

But it was not too late to reverse that decision, Biden warned: “Russia can still choose diplomacy. It is not too late to deescalate and return the negotiation table.”

Biden said the US and its European allies were united in their resolve to impose “severe” economic sanctions on Russia in response to an attack on Ukraine, and that Russia would also face the “moral outrage” of the rest of the world should it choose war.

“There are many issues that divide our nation and our world, but standing up to Russian aggression is not one of them. Americans are united...the entire free world is united,” he said.

“Make no mistake, if Russia pursues these plans, it will be responsible for a catastrophic and needless war of choice.”

“United States and our allies are prepared to defend every inch of NATO territory from any threat to our collective security,” Biden said. “We also will not send troops in to fight in Ukraine, but we will continue to support the Ukrainian people.”

He cited hundreds of millions of dollars in previous US military support to Ukraine.

Updated

Reports of explosion causing a pipeline fire in eastern Ukraine

A part of a gas pipeline near Luhansk, one of the main cities in Ukraine’s breakaway region of People’s Republic of Luhansk, caught fire late on Friday after a blast, Russian news agencies reported, citing correspondents on the ground.

The pipeline was struck by “a powerful explosion,” Interfax news agency reported, citing a local natural gas supplier.

The new report of a pipeline fire comes as the US and others have been warning of “false flag” incidents that could be used by Russia as a pretext for an attack on Ukraine.

Pro-Russian Telegram channels are claiming the fire is the result of Ukrainians blowing up a gas pipeline near Luhansk.

In other news, the foreign ministers for Germany and France released a joint statement today warning about Russia constructing pretext to justify a military escalation.

German minister Annalena Baerbock and French minister Jean-Yves Le Drian released the statement shortly after 3:00 pm eastern time, with the two ministers stating towards the latter half of the statement:

We have noted the announcement of the leaders of the self-proclaimed “People’s Republics” of Donetsk and Luhansk to evacuate the region’s residents to Russia as a so-called precautionary measure in anticipation of a possible Ukrainian attack. We do not see any grounds for these allegations and urge Russia to use its influence over the self-proclaimed republics to encourage restraint and contribute to de-escalation.

We are concerned that staged incidents could be misused as pretext for possible military escalation.

A White House official confirmed again today that cyberattacks against Ukraine came from Russia.

During a briefing, Deputy National Security Advisor for Cyber and Emerging Technology Anne Neuberger said that the US believes Russia is behind the cyberattacks targeting at least two major banks in Ukraine and Ukraine’s Ministry of Defense earlier this week.

The British government issued a similar confirmation: “The UK Government judges that the Russian Main Intelligence Directorate (GRU) were involved in this week’s distributed denial of service attacks against the financial sector in Ukraine,” a spokesperson for the Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office said.

“The attack showed a continued disregard for Ukrainian sovereignty. This activity is yet another example of Russia’s aggressive acts against Ukraine.”

Updated

British embassy to relocate to Lviv 'temporarily' – Foreign Office

The UK Foreign Office announced today that it will be temporarily relocating its Ukrainian embassy in light of heightened tensions between Russia and Ukraine.

Ambassador of the United Kingdom to Ukraine Melinda Simmons is seen during the presentation of the Partnership for a Strong Ukraine Foundation (PSUF) in Kyiv, Ukraine on 02 Feb 2022.
Ambassador of the United Kingdom to Ukraine Melinda Simmons is seen during the presentation of the Partnership for a Strong Ukraine Foundation (PSUF) in Kyiv, Ukraine on 02 Feb 2022. Photograph: Ukrinform/REX/Shutterstock

The UK will be moving the embassy from Kyiv to Lviv, located near the Poland border, while also urging British nationals in Ukraine to leave while commercial options were still available.

“Any Russian military action in Ukraine would severely affect the British government’s ability to provide consular assistance in Ukraine,” said the department.

The UK is one of the latest western countries to relocate their embassy with Melinda Simmons, the British ambassador to Ukraine, gaining praise for her decision to remain in Kyiv with a small staff and help British nationals leave the country.

Here’s the Guardian’s Patrick Wintour analyzing the impact of Simmon’s previous decision to remain in Kyiv:

Her decision to stay put, along with most EU embassies, will be popular with Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelenskiy. He is deeply unhappy that some western embassies – including the US, Canada and Australia – decided to move from Kyiv to Lviv or other cities in the west of the country. At a joint briefing on Monday Zelinskiy said he was determined to prevent an exodus of his political and business class, and questioned their logic. “There is no western Ukraine,” he said. “There is Ukraine; it is integral. Because if, God forbid, something happens, it will be everywhere.”

Melinda Simmons, the British ambassador to Ukraine, has been winning plaudits for her decision to stay in post in Kyiv, working with a much-reduced staff to help UK citizens out of the country and to manage the steady flow of British dignitaries still flying to the country to show their solidarity.

Read Wintour’s full article here.

Updated

According to a tweet from Ukraine’s defense ministry, Ukraine Military Intelligence has information that Russian special services are possibly planting bombs in buildings in Donetsk, Ukraine.

“These measures are aimed at destabilizing the situation in the temporarily occupied territories of our state and creating grounds for accusing Ukraine of terrorist acts,” said Ukraine’s defense ministry in a subsequent tweet.

In a final tweet, the Ukraine’s defense ministry advised those living in Donetsk to stay home and not use public transit.

The first buses carrying people who are evacuating from eastern Ukraine have arrived in Russia’s Rostov region late Friday according to Russia’s state news agency TASS, reported Reuters:

The self-proclaimed Donetsk People’s Republic announced a mass evacuation of the region’s residents to Russia earlier on Friday after an increase in shelling.

Separatist forces and Ukrainian government forces blamed each other for the spike in tensions.

In other news, here is a read out of US Vice president Kamala Harris and Baltic leaders, discussing their readiness capabilities if Russia were to invade Ukraine, including position adjustments from the US and NATO.

More from Germany’s foreign minister Annalena Baerbock, who said “all options” would be on the table if Russia launches an attack on Ukraine, including scrapping the Nord Stream 2 pipeline deal intended to bring Russian gas to Germany.

Western powers are united in their preparation of “unprecedented sanctions” on Russia, Baerbock said in a speech at the Munich Security Conference.

She said that Germany is ready to “pay a high economic price”, adding:

That’s why all options are on the table for me, also Nord Stream 2.

Separately, Germany’s defence ministry said Berlin will raise the deployment readiness of German troops in the Nato response force, enabling them to deploy more quickly to protect eastern European allies in case of an escalation of tensions with Russia.

In a statement, the ministry said the decision is a reaction to Russia’s conduct and meant to reduce the time needed to prepare for deployment in case of an activation of the Nato Response Force (NRF).

Updated

The announcement that civilians will be evacuated from Russia-backed areas in eastern Ukraine is a “cynical” move by Moscow, a US State Department spokesperson said.

Speaking to reporters at the Munich Security Conference, the State Department official said:

Announcements like these are further attempts to obscure through lies and disinformation that Russia is the aggressor in this conflict.

It is also cynical and cruel to use human beings as pawns to distract the world from the fact that Russia is building up its forces in preparation for an attack.

There is no evidence that Ukraine is planning an offensive in the region, despite Russia’s claims to the contrary.

The West must gear up for years of heightened Russian pressure on Ukraine and on Europe as a whole, whether or not Moscow launches an attack on Ukraine in the coming days, Latvia’s prime minister Krišjānis Kariņš said.

In an interview with POLITICO, Kariņš said Vladimir Putin’s goal was to suppress Ukraine’s independence and bring it back into “the Russian fold.”

The Russian president could pursue his strategy of “neo-imperialism” not just through a direct military attack but also by ramping up efforts to destabilise the Ukrainian economy and society, Kariņš warned.

Kariņš said:

In the best-case scenario — best-case meaning no war — we will be facing long-term pressure from Putin on Ukraine and on Europe as a whole.

Latvia borders Russia and Belarus, where Moscow has massed tens of thousands of troops as part of a huge buildup of forces around Ukraine.

Kariņš said he had told his European Council counterparts to prepare themselves for the long term, whatever the coming days may bring.

What I argue with my colleagues in the Council is that we have to be prepared for probably a long haul — not two weeks or two months or even two years … probably it will be much longer. And we have to start thinking in terms of the long game.

In this long game, we are interested in supporting the Ukrainian state, supporting its independence, its democracy, helping it with reforms, helping it financially, helping it withstand the outward pressures of Moscow.

Our correspondents, Shaun Walker in Vrubivka, and Andrew Roth in Moscow, report on how warnings by leaders of pro-Russian proxy states of an imminent assault by Ukrainian forces are fueling fears that Moscow is seeking to create a pretext for invasion.

The leaders of pro-Russian proxy states in eastern Ukraine announced a mass evacuation of citizens to Russia on Friday evening, amid fears Moscow is manufacturing tension in the region to provide a pretext for renewed military intervention in Ukraine.

After the evacuation announcement, warning sirens sounded in Donetsk and other cities in the two Moscow-backed statelets, supposedly due to an upcoming Ukrainian military assault on the region.

On Friday evening the Russian-separatist authorities said that a car had been blown up near their government building in the centre of Donetsk. There were no reports of casualties and a video seemed to show it was in an empty car park.

Vladimir Putin swiftly dispatched a top official to the border region and announced those arriving would be given a payment of 10,000 roubles (£95).

However, Ukrainian officials insisted they had no plans to launch any assault, and said that, in fact, recent days have seen a dramatic upsurge in fire by Russia-backed forces across the frontlines.

In Vrubivka, one of many towns on the Ukrainian side of the frontline that has seen an uptick in violence in the past two days, humanitarian monitors were analysing the damage on Friday afternoon and helping residents with repairs. Twelve buildings in the town were damaged by incoming artillery fire on Thursday, the first time the town has been hit since August 2018.

“I just hope there isn’t going to be any more of this. I can’t sleep at night. My arms and legs are shaking, and it’s scary,” said Anatoly Romanenko, 77, whose roof was damaged in the attacks.

More on the statement released this afternoon by Ukraine’s foreign ministry, who said claims that the Ukrainian government plans to launch an offensive operation in the Donetsk and Luhansk regions are “divorced from reality”.

The statement reads:

Ukraine is also not conducting or planning any sabotage acts in Donbas.

We categorically reject the attempts of Russia to aggravate the already tense security situation.

We remain firmly committed to politico-diplomatic settlement and, together with our partners, maximise efforts to reduce the tension and keep the situation in line with diplomatic dialogue.

A Russian attack on Ukraine would mean the end of the post-cold war and “the end of our hopes and illusions”, Gérard Araud, a former French ambassador to the United States, United Nations and Israel said.

Araud tweeted:

The most likely scenario for a Russian attack on Ukraine is not a fully-fledged invasion but rather a false flag operation or a coup, German foreign minister Annalena Baerbock said.

Speaking at the annual Munich Security Conference, Baerbock said:

The scenario of a full invasion might be possible but I am not sure this is really the most likely scenario.

She added, apparently alluding to a cyber attack or an attack on Ukraine’s critical infrastructure:

I would be more afraid that the most likely scenario is a false flag (operation) or a coup or also other things like...if all the electricity will fall down here at this hotel, we would all go nuts and totally crazy.

The US has obtained intelligence that Russia is building lists of Ukrainian political figures and other high-profile political opponents to be targeted for either arrest or assassination in the event of a Russian assault on Ukraine, Foreign Policy reports.

Four people familiar with US intelligence told the website that if Russia moves forward with plans to invade Ukraine, it may target prominent political opponents, anti-corruption activists, and Belarusian and Russian dissidents living in exile.

A fifth person, a US official who spoke on condition of anonymity, said that the US has been downgrading its intelligence classification in order to share threats to specific groups within Ukraine with Ukrainian government officials and other partners in the region.

The US official said:

As we’ve seen in the past, we expect Russia will try to force cooperation through intimidation and repression.

These acts, which in past Russian operations have included targeted killings, kidnappings/forced disappearances, detentions, and the use of torture, would likely target those who oppose Russian actions, including Russian and Belarusian dissidents in exile in Ukraine, journalists and anti-corruption activists, and vulnerable populations such as religious and ethnic minorities and LGBTQI+ persons.

The report comes after US secretary of state Antony Blinken hinted that Russia would target political opponents with arrest or assassination in a speech at the United Nations yesterday. “We have information that indicates Russia will target specific groups of Ukrainians,” Blinken said, without providing details.

The UK is advising against all but essential travel to Belarus, the Foreign, Commonwealth & Development Office said.

In an update on its website, the FCDO says it is advising “against all travel to Yelsk, Mazyr, Rechitsa, Luninets, Gomel, Asipovichy, Baranovichi and Brest”.

“The FCDO advise against all but essential travel to the remainder of Belarus,” it continues.

Ukraine’s foreign ministry has called on the international community to condemn what it said were provocations by Russia in separatist-held eastern Ukrainian areas.

The ministry said that a lack of proper reaction, or a neutral position, would lead to more escalation by Russia.

The foreign ministry’s spokesperson said in a statement:

...we are watching the Russian Federation launch a campaign to spread mass disinformation, increase shelling of Ukrainian positions and civilian infrastructure with weapons banned by the Minsk agreements, and escalate the security situation.

Lack of a proper reaction or a neutral position will only fuel the escalation of the situation by Russia.

Reports in Russian state media of explosion in Donetsk amid fears of plan to trigger invasion

Russian state media say a blast has occurred outside the separatist-controlled administration building in the rebel-held city of Donetsk in eastern Ukraine.

Nobody was injured in Friday’s blast, which was caused by a car bomb, Russian media reported, quoting separatist leaders. Video filmed by Russian reporters at the scene showed a fire burning. The car belonged to the head of the DNR’s police force, Denis Sinenkov, reports said.

The explosion follows multiple warnings by the US and others of a “false flag” incident, used by Russia as a pretext to justify a military attack on Ukraine.

It comes hours after the leader of the Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR), Denis Pushilin, announced that residents would be evacuated from the city to Russia’s Rostov region.

Pushilin said the move was necessary because of an impending attack on the territory by Ukrainian forces. Ukraine’s pro-western government has vehemently denied the claim and says it has behaved with restraint despite heavy shelling on Thursday and Friday from rebel held territory.

Updated

Here’s more on the reports that an explosion took place in central Donetsk in eastern Ukraine.

According to the Tass news agency, the large explosion occurred near a government building in the separatist-held city.

Separatist authorities in east Ukraine say a car was blown up in the centre of Donetsk, Tass news agency said.

Russia’s Interfax news agency reports no one was hurt by the explosion.

US president Joe Biden will give an update on the situation in Ukraine at 9pm UK time today, the White House said.

Russian state media is reporting a “major” explosion near a government building in the centre of Donetsk in eastern Ukraine.

From Oksana Pokalchuk, head of Amnesty International Ukraine:

The Guardian has not been able to independently verify these reports yet.

Updated

Full-scale invasion not needed for sanctions, western officials hint

Western officials hinted on Friday that sanctions could be launched against Russia in the event of cyber, paramilitary or another non-conventional attack against Ukraine ordered by the Kremlin.

Although a conventional military attack is still considered possible “with very little notice,” western officials are also concerned about a possible escalation of the conflict by Russian separatists in Ukraine’s Donbas region or further cyber attacks on Ukraine, following the targeting of banks and government earlier this week.

An official said the simplest scenario for triggering economic sanctions would be that “missiles might start firing, tanks start coming across the border”. But they stressed there were alternative scenarios that would lead to a triggering of sanctions.

The official said: “There are other scenarios, very plausible ones, under which the kinds of events we’ve seen over the last 48 hours continue to increase in frequency and intensity, that you see more cyber attacks, that you see a really big escalation of cyber attacks against the government of Ukraine. And in that situation, the reality is, it would be more difficult to call exactly when a line had been crossed.”

The topic of what conflict situation would lead to the triggering of economic sanctions against Russia has been under active discussions between the US, EU and UK. It “cannot only be if there are missiles or tanks or whatever. We may need to judge response in a more complex situation,” the official added.

Officials added they believed the Ukraine crisis was now “in its most dangerous phase” because of the combination of the military build up, ongoing exercises in Belarus and the escalating tensions in the Donbas region, in the east of Ukraine.

French president Emmanuel Macron has called for calm, describing the shelling in Donbas as “very worrying”. He called on Vladimir Putin to make good on his claims of drawing down troops at the Ukrainian border.

I welcome what president Putin has said but I believe that if you want to be a reliable partner then deeds should be in line with declarations and I would like to see specific actions. As regards to pressure, military pressure, from Russia, destabilising acts, the increasing number of shelling in the contact zone, firstly we call for a ceasefire on such military actions, resume dialogue, because we continue to believe that dialogue is the way to move this situation forward.

He added that in the coming hours there will be close cooperation between the European allies and the US.

In our view we must all keep calm in this situation.

Updated

From Estonia’s ambassador to Ukraine …

Updated

The analyst Michael A Horowitz is sharing images of people being evacuated from Donetsk and Luhansk.

Updated

Some remarks from the White House pool as Harris meets Baltic leaders …

Lithuania’s president, Gitanas Nausėda, has warned that “the ghost of war” is hovering over Europe and that “security for Ukraine means security for the Baltic states”, adding:

The more we are united … the better we will send the signals to Russia not to start what they intend to do.

Estonia’s prime minister, Kaja Kallas, said:

We have all lost our independence to Russia once, and we don’t want it to happen again. We understand what is at stake here.

Updated

AP reports that the US vice-president, Kamala Harris, has hailed Nato unity during the escalating Ukraine crisis and warned Russia that the US and western allies stand ready to respond with tough sanctions if President Vladimir Putin moves forward with an invasion of Ukraine.

In a meeting with the Nato secretary general, Jens Stoltenberg, as the annual Munich Security Conference got under way, Harris thanked the alliance for “all that you have done” throughout the crisis, adding:

We remain, of course, open to, and desirous of, diplomacy, as it relates to the dialogue and the discussions we have had with Russia, but we are also committed, if Russia takes aggressive action, to ensure there will be severe consequence in terms of the sanctions we have discussed. And we know the alliance is strong in that regard.

The US estimates that Russia probably has massed between 169,000 and 190,000 personnel in and near Ukraine – up from about about 100,000 on 30 January.

Harris said it was “intentional” that she was holding her first meeting at the annual security conference with Nato’s secretary general. The administration is trying to drive the message to Putin that the crisis has only bolstered the 30-country military alliance’s resolve to push back against Moscow’s aggression.

Stoltenberg echoed Harris’s sentiment of growing Nato unity during the crisis, saying:

I also welcome the fact that European allies are stepping up, also increasing their presence in the eastern border of the alliance and also investing more in defence. So the reality is that North America and Europe are doing more together now that we’ve done for many years.

Updated

Head of Ukrainian separatists announces mass evacuation

The head of the Russia-backed separatist states in Ukraine has announced a mass evacuation of citizens in what may be part of a plan to trigger a Russian intervention in Ukraine.

Denis Pushilin, the head of the self-proclaimed Donetsk People’s Republic, announced that he believed Ukraine was planning to attack the separatist state and said he would begin a mass evacuation of its citizens to Russia on Friday. The Luhansk People’s Republic, another Russian-backed separatist state, announced similar plans.

There is no indication that Ukraine is planning an offensive operation in south-east Ukraine, where the front lines of the conflict have remained static for nearly seven years. Russia has also moved an estimated 150,000 troops to the border area and appears to be seeking a pretext for which to launch an intervention.

Nonetheless, Pushilin said that he believed that the Ukrainian president, Volodymyr Zelenskiy was planning to launch an offensive and that the army would shell cities and towns in the Russian-backed separatist areas of southeast Ukraine.

In a video statement, Pushilin said he was organising a “mass, centralised departure” of the population to the Russian Federation, adding that “women, children and elderly people are subject to evacuation first”.

He also claimed that he had agreed with the Russian leadership to prepare sheltering points for the population in the Rostov region of south-west Russia. The buy-in from the Russian authorities for what would be a difficult logistical operation to move hundreds of thousands of people could indicate that this is a serious development.

Ukraine immediately denied Pushilin’s claims, as well as others in Russian-backed media that claimed the Ukrainian army was targeting a chemical facility.

“We categorically refute Russian disinformation reports on Ukraine’s alleged offensive operations or acts of sabotage in chemical production facilities,” said Dmytro Kuleba, Ukraine’s foreign minister. “Ukraine does not conduct or plan any such actions in the Donbas. We are fully committed to diplomatic conflict resolution only.”

There has been a flare-up in fighting along the frontlines of the conflict this week. The Ukrainian army has said that shells fired from separatist-held territory had hit a kindergarten on Thursday, injuring several adults.

At a press conference in Moscow on Friday afternoon, Vladimir Putin said he was witnessing an “aggravation of the situation in the Donbas”.

Asked about the evacuation plan, Kremlin spokesman Dmitri Peskov told journalists that he “didn’t know what was going on there with Pushilin”, the Interfax news agency reported.

Head of the self-proclaimed Donetsk People’s Republic Denis Pushilin attends a news conference in Donetsk, Ukraine in April 2021
Head of the self-proclaimed Donetsk People’s Republic Denis Pushilin attends a news conference in Donetsk, Ukraine last April. Photograph: Alexander Ermochenko/Reuters

Updated

A brief readout of today’s call between the US secretary of defence and his Russian counterpart, courtesy of the Pentagon:

On February 18, Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin III spoke with Russian Minister of Defense Sergey Shoygu. Secretary Austin called for de-escalation, the return of Russian forces surrounding Ukraine to their home bases, and a diplomatic resolution.

The Belarusian president, Alexander Lukashenko, has said the “irresponsibility” of western leaders over Ukraine has left Europe on the “verge of a conflict” that will involve the whole continent, PA Media reports.

Speaking following talks in Moscow with President Vladimir Putin, Lukashenko said people were already fleeing the Russian-speaking Donbas region of eastern Ukraine.

We are on the verge of a conflict that will involve the whole continent. We see that the irresponsibility of a number of Western leaders has led to the situation and we see that this irresponsible or irrational behaviour of our neighbours has led to this situation.

As the picture shows, Lukashenko was pointedly spared the big table treatment meted out to Emmanuel Macron and Olaf Scholz …

Russian President Vladimir Putin, right, and Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko talk to each other during their meeting in the Kremlin in Moscow, Russia, Friday, Feb. 18, 2022. (Mikhail Klimentyev, Sputnik, Kremlin Pool Photo via AP)
Russian president Vladimir Putin, right, and Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko talk to each other during their meeting in the Kremlin in Moscow on Friday. Photograph: Mikhail Klimentyev/AP

Updated

From Ukraine’s foreign minister …

Updated

East-west tensions are at their highest point since the collapse of the Soviet Union in the 1990s, according to the UN secretary general, António Guterres. However, the UN chief still believes there will not be a military conflict in Ukraine.

Guterres warned in his opening speech at an annual security conference in Munich that a small mistake or miscommunication between major powers could have catastrophic consequences.

I am often asked whether we are in a new cold war. My answer is that the threat to global security now is more complex and probably higher than at that time.

During the decades-long standoff between the Soviet Union and the US in the 20th century, “there were mechanisms that enabled the protagonists to calculate risks and use back-channels to prevent crises”, Guterres said.

Today, many of those systems no longer exist and most of the people trained to use them are no longer here with us.

But Guterres said he still believes the buildup of Russian troops around Ukraine won’t result in a military conflict. He added:

I urge all parties to be extremely careful with their rhetoric. Public statements should aim to reduce tensions, not inflame them.

(Via AP)

United Nations Secretary General Antonio Guterres addresses the audience with an opening statement at the 58th Munich Security Conference (MSC) in Munich, Germany, 18 February 2022. EPA/RONALD WITTEK
United Nations secretary general António Guterres addresses the audience at the 58th Munich Security Conference in Germany on Friday. Photograph: Ronald Wittek/EPA

Updated

Reuters has this from the German foreign minister, Annalena Baerbock:

All options are on the table regarding sanctions on Russia in the event it attacks Ukraine, including the Nord Stream 2 pipeline intended to bring Russian gas to Germany, according to Baerbock.

Western powers are united in their preparation of “unprecedented sanctions” on Russia, Baerbock said in a speech at the Munich Security Conference.

She added:

We, Germany, are prepared to pay a high economic price for this. That’s why all options are on the table for me, also Nord Stream 2.

Despite the lack of a Russian delegation at the security summit for the first time in decades, Baerbock sent a message to the Kremlin, saying that security cannot come at the cost of others.

German Federal Minister for Foreign Affairs Annalena Baerbock addresses the audience prior to a discussion panel at the 58th Munich Security Conference (MSC) in Munich, Germany, 18 February 2022. EPA/RONALD WITTEK
German federal mMinister for foreign affairs Annalena Baerbock addresses the audience prior to a discussion panel at the 58th Munich Security Conference (MSC) in Munich on Friday. Photograph: Ronald Wittek/EPA

Updated

A Russian-backed separatist leader in eastern Ukraine has announced the evacuation of his breakaway region’s residents to southeast Russia after an increase in shelling.

Announcing the move on social media, Denis Pushilin, head of the self-proclaimed Donetsk People’s Republic, said Russia had agreed to provide accommodation for people leaving and that women, children and the elderly should be prioritised.

There was no immediate comment from Russian officials or from Kyiv, and a Reuters witness in the region’s capital of Donetsk said there were no signs yet of an evacuation.

Pushilin said:

As of today, Feb. 18, a mass centralised evacuation of the population to the Russian Federation has been organised. Women, children and the elderly are to be evacuated first.

(Via Reuters)

The West needs to keep talking to Russia to make it more difficult for Moscow to launch an attack on Ukraine, Latvia said on Friday, as two days of increased shelling in eastern Ukraine sparked fears a Russian invasion could be imminent.

Diplomatic efforts to solve the crisis must continue, Latvian Foreign Minister Edgars Rinkevics told Reuters on the sidelines of the Munich Security Conference, a three-day gathering of world leaders that looks set to be dominated by the tensions with Russia.

He said:

While there are diplomatic efforts going on, it is actually very difficult for Russia to invade or to do any kind of provocation.

The EU is considering new restrictive measures to close loopholes on existing sanctions against Belarus, diplomats said - an issue that is likely to come up at a meeting of EU foreign affairs ministers on Monday.

The discussion comes amid concern over a possible Russian invasion of Ukraine, which could include Russian troops stationed in Belarus. Moscow denies that it is planning an invasion, but Western countries believe the opposite.

As a sign of further escalation on the EU’s eastern front, the EU last week told non-essential staff to relocate from Kyiv, one EU diplomat said, while Ukraine is urging the EU to provide emergency support and military training.

Sanctions on Belarus were initially imposed after the president, Alexander Lukashenko, crushed protests following elections in August 2020, and have been tightened several times since then.

The diplomats said new measures could be aimed at closing loopholes that Baltic diplomats said are being exploited by Minsk to circumvent existing sanctions.

The EU has banned Belarus’ exports of potash, a fertiliser made of potassium, and oil products. But diplomats said Belarus is still exporting it to the EU via Ukraine, and has also boosted its export to the EU of oil products obtained from coal.

Baltic country officials are expected to raise these issues at Monday’s meeting of EU foreign affairs ministers, even if Belarus is not on the agenda of the meeting. No decision on the matter is expected on Monday.

A spokesperson for the EU diplomatic service declined to comment on discussions over sanctions.

(Via Reuters)

Greece has dispatched its foreign minister, Nikos Dendias, to Moscow for talks with Sergei Lavrov.

As Christian Orthodox nations, the two countries have long shared traditionally strong ties although in more recent years Greece, a member of the western alliance, has also shored up relations with the US, signing an expansive mutual defence agreement with Washington that has granted the superpower unfettered access to four major military bases.

The facilities are likely to be increasingly used to transfer US troops and equipment to Bulgaria and Romania in the event of a Russian invasion.

Following the talks, Athens’ top diplomat warned:

We will all lose if there is a clash in Ukraine ... the aim of all of us is maintaining peace and security in Europe. Greece is always in favour of peaceful dialogue with Russia. We listen with attention to the demands of Russia regarding its security, as we listen to all the others.

Asked by a reporter with the Greek daily Kathimeri about the escalating tensions in the eastern Ukrainian region Donbass, where a sizeable ethnic Greek minority resides, the Russian foreign minister said:

We are very concerned by the radical increase in fire on the front line. For years the regime in Kiev has violated ceasefire agreements.

Lavrov also described Ukraine’s aspirations to join Nato as a “caprice”.

Analysts in Athens have suggested that Hellenic navy ships will be deployed to evacuate members of Ukraine’s Greek diaspora in the event of an invasion.

Greek Foreign Minister Nikolaos Dendias visits Moscow. A handout photo made available by the press service of the Russian Foreign Affairs Ministry shows Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov (R) and Greek Foreign Minister Nikolaos Dendias (L) attending a joint news conference following their talks in Moscow, Russia, 18 February 2022.
Greek Foreign Minister Nikolaos Dendias visits Moscow. A handout photo made available by the press service of the Russian Foreign Affairs Ministry shows Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov (R) and Greek Foreign Minister Nikolaos Dendias (L) attending a joint news conference following their talks in Moscow, Russia, 18 February 2022. Photograph: Russian Foreign Affairs Ministry/EPA

Updated

The US figure includes Russian-backed separatists, which will partially explain why it is so much higher.

“This estimate includes military troops along the border, in Belarus, and in occupied Crimea; Russian National Guard and other internal security units deployed to these areas; and Russian-led forces in eastern Ukraine.”

Russia has up to 190,000 military personnel in and near Ukraine, US claims

The US has claimed the number of Russian troops on Ukraine’s borders is significantly higher than previously known.

Michael Carpenter, the US ambassador to the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe said in a statement to an OSCE meeting that the number may have nearly doubled since the end of last month.

We assess that Russia probably has massed between 169,000-190,000 personnel in and near Ukraine as compared with about 100,000 on January 30.

(Carpenter saying “in and near” is likely a reference to areas of eastern Ukraine controlled by Russian-backed separatists)

He added:

This is the most significant military mobilization in Europe since the Second World War.

Updated

Summary so far:

Updated

Bulgaria’s prime minister, Kiril Petkov, has said his country is fully behind EU sanctions against Russia if Moscow were to order an invasion of Ukraine - a move he described as “close to insanity”.

Petkov, attending his first EU summit since becoming Bulgaria’s prime minister last December, told the Guardian the severity of any Russian attack would determine the scale of the EU’s response.

EU leaders meeting in Brussels on Thursday held an impromptu meeting on the Ukraine crisis, ahead of a scheduled summit with 40 heads of state and government from the African Union.

It remains unclear what would trigger EU sanctions: a full-scale invasion or other forms of aggression, such as cyber-attacks; intensified disinformation, or increased attacks by Moscow-backed separatists in eastern Ukraine.

Petkov said that “shelling as usual” in the Donbas region “would not be a trigger”, but added:

If we have a direct invasion both directly into the special regions [of the Donbas] or if we have some move [by Russia] from the Belarusian side – any of those aggressive manoeuvres into the territory of Ukraine would trigger an immediate response.

Petkov said EU leaders had not gone “into the details” of the sanctions package, which is being drawn up by the European Commission, and which would need to be agreed unanimously by all 27 member states.

He said that, despite its dependence on Russian gas, Bulgaria would support the sanctions if Ukraine was invaded.

We are the most dependent of the EU nations [on] Russian gas. Sometimes we are 100% dependent, which is staggering.

EU officials are working on plans to keep gas flowing should Russia choose to retaliate against Western sanctions by cutting energy supplies to Europe.

Petkov reiterated his hopes to see a gas interconnector and 182km pipeline connecting Bulgaria to Greece complete by the summer, bringing cheaper gas from Azerbaijan and breaking Russia’s monopoly. The Bulgarian government said last month delays to the project had cost it €250m in lost revenues in 2021.

Petkov spoke to his Greek counterpart, Kyriákos Mitsotakis, about the project on Thursday.

In the interim, Bulgaria had a contingency plan to deal with any shortfall in gas supplies, he said, promising: “You won’t see a softening of positions due to fear from sanctions.”

Any invasion of Ukraine by Russia would be “close to insanity”, Petkov added.

You cannot be in full isolation from the whole world, where the majority of your revenue is coming from.

Continuing to bring up the tension, trying to negotiate as it is right now, I understand the strategic moves from that side. But going into Ukraine, that for me would be close to insanity if you have a fully fledged invasion.

Updated

Poland is ready to help people who would be forced to leave Ukraine in the event of a Russian invasion, the Polish defence minister, Mariusz Blaszczak, has said.

Speaking during a joint press conference with his US counterpart, Lloyd Austin, Blaszczak said:

As for the crisis that would certainly be caused if Russia attacked Ukraine, I want to stress that we are ready to help those who will be forced to leave Ukraine.

The US defence secretary, Lloyd Austin, has once again dismissed Russian claims of a withdrawal from areas around Ukraine. On a trip to Warsaw, Austin said the US was committed to the defence of its Nato allies, adding:

What Mr Putin did not want was a stronger Nato on his flank, and that’s exactly what he has today.

US defence secretary Lloyd Austin (centre) and Polish defence minister Mariusz Blaszczak (left) review a guard of honour during a welcoming ceremony at the Lazienki Park in Warsaw, Poland,
US defence secretary Lloyd Austin (centre) and Polish defence minister Mariusz Blaszczak (left) review a guard of honour during a welcoming ceremony at the Lazienki Park in Warsaw, Poland, Photograph: Leszek Szymański/EPA

Updated

The US defence secretary, Lloyd Austin, has announced the planned sale of 250 Abrams tanks to Poland, as Washington moves to strengthen the defences of a key European ally amid a mounting threat of war between neighbouring Ukraine and Russia.

Austin told reporters in Warsaw:

This is the most modern version of the Abrams, and will provide Poland with a highly advanced tank capability. It will also strengthen our interoperability with the Polish armed forces, boosting the credibility of our combined deterrence efforts and those of our other Nato allies.

(Via Reuters)

Updated

The UN children’s agency, Unicef, has just put out this release calling for children in eastern Ukraine to have access to safe education.

Attacks on kindergartens and schools have been a sad reality for children in eastern Ukraine over the last eight years. More than 750 schools have been damaged since the beginning of the conflict, disrupting access to education for thousands of children on both sides of the contact line.

The conflict has taken a severe toll on the psychosocial wellbeing of an entire generation of children growing up in eastern Ukraine. Furthermore, children in eastern Ukraine live in one of the world’s most mine-contaminated stretches of land. Every day, they live, play, and go to and from school in areas littered with landmines, unexploded ordnances, and other deadly explosive remnants of war

Unicef calls on all parties to respect the Safe School Declaration and protect children and their caregivers from attacks, regardless of the circumstances they might find themselves in.

Educational facilities should remain a safe space where children can be protected from threats and crises and a haven where they can learn, play, and grow to their full potential. A child’s right to education cannot be safeguarded in conflict settings without education itself being protected.

Finance leaders from the Group of 20 major economies were set on Friday to agree that rising inflation and geopolitical risks could threaten a fragile global recovery, as the crisis in Ukraine and the Covid-19 pandemic’s fallout cloud the outlook.

But a draft final communique seen by Reuters contained no direct mention of western concerns that Russia might invade Ukraine, with one source at the talks saying even a reference to “current” tensions had been vetoed by Russia and China.

In a draft text seen by Reuters, the finance chiefs from the world’s leading economies pledged to use “all available policy tools to address the impacts of the pandemic”, while warning that future policy space was likely to be “narrower and uneven”.

(Via Reuters)

Updated

Vladimir Putin will personally oversee exercises of Russia’s strategic deterrence forces, including ballistic and cruise missile launches meant to simulate a nuclear attack.

The annual strategic Grom drills will take place on Saturday “under the supervision of Russian Armed Forces Supreme Commander-in-Chief Vladimir Putin”, Russia’s defence ministry has said in a statement. “Ballistic and cruise missiles will be launched in its course.”

Western governments had warned that Russia was planning to hold the strategic nuclear drills this month, rather than in late summer as is customary. The exercises coincide with the final day of Russia’s Allied Resolve military drills in Belarus amid concerns that Russia is preparing an invasion of Ukraine.

The Russian drills will “involve forces and hardware belonging to the Aerospace Forces, the Southern Military District, the Strategic Missile Forces, the Northern Fleet, and the Black Sea Fleet”, the ministry said.

It added:

A scheduled exercise of the strategic deterrence forces aims at checking the preparedness of military commands and crews of missile systems, warships and strategic bombers to accomplish their missions and at verifying the reliability of weapons of strategic nuclear and conventional forces.

Vladimir Putin watches the joint strategic exercise of the armed forces of the Russian Federation and the Republic of Belarus in the Nizhny Novgorod region last September.
Vladimir Putin watches the joint strategic exercise of the armed forces of the Russian Federation and the Republic of Belarus in the Nizhny Novgorod region last September. Photograph: Sergei Savostyanov/AP

Updated

AP has this report from a shelled village in eastern Ukraine.

Shells struck by the hundreds along the tense front lines in eastern Ukraine, drones monitoring a fragile ceasefire lost their way when the GPS signal they rely on was jammed, and then the cellphone network went dark.

In a sliver of land where pro-Russian separatists have battled for years against Ukrainian government forces, a group of international monitors tasked with keeping the peace reported more than 300 explosions in 24 hours ending Thursday, around four times as many as an average day over the past month.

The village of Stanytsia Luhanska suffered more than its share of explosions on Thursday. One shell crashed into a kindergarten, blasting a hole in the wall that sent soccer balls flying off the classroom shelves just as the school day started. Others blasted craters into the schoolyard and shattered windows of nearby homes.

Olena Yaryna, the school director, said:

We heard the sound of broken glass. The children were very scared. Some kids started crying immediately, and the explosions continued for the next 20 minutes.

At Valentyna Melnychenko’s nearby home, the explosions filled her living room and hall with smoke.

I switched off the TV, and there were seven more shellings and then it stopped

Three people were wounded and half the village lost power. Oleksandr Pavliuk, a Ukrainian army commander, said the explosions were intended to provoke a response and ultimately a counter-response, echoing the warnings from the US.

Monitors from the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe have been in place in the Donetsk and Luhansk regions since 2014 to try and maintain the ceasefire. But even they were drawn into the fray this week.

In addition to the explosions, the OSCE recorded nearly 600 ceasefire violations over the course of a day, more than double the average for the past month. And three of the organisation’s small surveillance drones went astray after the GPS signal was jammed; a fourth couldn’t make it off the ground without a signal.

Electronic interference went further overnight, when the cellphone network went down in Luhansk for hours, for the second night in a row, according to an Associated Press journalist working in the area.

Updated

The Russian president, Vladimir Putin, and his Belarusian counterpart, Alexander Lukashenko, are set to meet shortly in a summit that could have important implications for the military crisis on Ukraine’s borders.

The two leaders are set to discuss what will happen to the estimated 30,000 Russian troops in Belarus after the Allied Resolve joint exercises conclude on 19 February.

“We will make all appropriate decisions tomorrow,” Lukashenko said when asked about the troops during a visit to the Osipovichi training ground on Thursday. He arrived in Moscow on Friday morning and will meet with Putin at the Kremlin.

Up to 30,000 Russian troops, as well as almost all of the Belarusian armed forces, are taking part in the drills, according to the Russian defence ministry. Western officials have warned that the drills could be cover for preparations for an invasion of Ukraine and threaten a possible attack on Kyiv.

Satellite imagery has shown Russian armour and artillery within miles of Belarus’ border with Ukraine and Western officials have pointed out unusual military activity such as the construction of a pontoon bridge over the Prypyat river in the Chernobyl exclusion zone.

Russian officials have pledged that the troops will leave Belarus after the exercises conclude. But in contradictory remarks, Lukashenko on Thursday said that “if it makes sense to keep Russian troops here, we will keep them as long as necessary. I emphasise once again: this is our territory and this decision is up to us”.

Lukashenko criticised US deployments of troops to Poland and said he would not “ask permission”.

Leaving Russian troops in the country would be a controversial decision in Belarus. Many Belarusians, even supporters of Lukashenko, do not want to see further integration with Russia and would view a large Russian military presence as an occupation.

Lukashenko has resisted efforts to integrate his economy and politics with Russia under a Union State plan, but increasingly needs Russia’s financial and diplomatic support in his own standoff with the West.

The Russian troops in Belarus are seen as some of the most concerning to Western analysts because they have been sent thousands of miles from Russia’s eastern military district.

Thomas Bullock, Senior OSINT Analyst at Janes, a defence intelligence provider, said that the troops were among the Russian units that would have to withdraw in order for Russia to meaningfully decrease tensions.

“You want to see those long distance journeys being pulled back,” he told the Guardian.

Rochan Consulting, a military consultancy, has estimated that Russia has sent 50-70% of the Eastern military district’s combat potential to Belarus. Units include armour, artillery, speznaz special forces, engineering brigades, iskander ballistic missile battalions, SU-35 fighters, paratroopers, and anti-air systems.

PA has a little more on the UK government’s fears that Russia could use “false flag operations” to provoke war in Ukraine.

Home Office minister Damian Hinds has told Times Radio that the West needs to be “steeled” to misinformation from the Kremlin.

False flag is a form of disinformation. There are other forms of disinformation as well. The Putin regime is a global leader in the deployment of disinformation and wider information ops. We need to be steeled to that. We need to understand what might be coming, what might be portrayed as some sort of spurious justification for an attack, for an invasion, and not take things at all at face value.

Hinds said he didn’t know what kinds of disinformation strategies might be planned, but gave the aftermath of the Salisbury poisonings as an example of Russia’s recent past strategy.

Information operations have become a part of modern warfare and we need to be very alive to that, we need to be prepared for that.

The minister also said Britain could revoke the so-called “golden visas” already issued to people living in the country, a day after the government scrapped the programme over concerns about the inflow of illicit Russian money.

On Thursday, the home secretary, Priti Patel, said she had closed the Tier 1 system, which had offered a route to residency for those investing at least £2m.

“There are routes to revoke when needed,” Hinds said.

Updated

Sam Jones here, taking over from Samantha Lock.

One of today’s main events will be the Munich security conference, where world leaders including US vice-president Kamala Harris, Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelenskiy, and the German chancellor, Olaf Scholz, will gather to discuss the crisis.

The meeting comes amid continuing fears that a Russian invasion is imminent. Australia’s defence minister has voiced those growing concerns, saying Russia is on the cusp of an “all-out conflict” in Ukraine.

As the US government warned a Russian invasion could occur in the coming days, Peter Dutton said there were multiple signs this was on the cards.

He told Nine Network:

It’s tragic and we’ll see terrible scenes unfolding. You would expect that President Putin – who obviously can’t be taken at his word – is manufacturing some sort of trigger, or is in the process of executing the final stages of his plan to go into Ukraine.

(Via Australian Associated Press)

Updated

Before I hand you over to my colleague, Sam Jones, here is a quick recap of where we stand.

  • Ukrainian government forces and Russian-backed rebels in the country’s east have traded fresh accusations of shelling and other ceasefire violations.
  • Ukraine’s ministry of defence says it has recorded 60 ceasefire violations by separatists in the Donbas region over the past 24 hours, with one soldier injured, according to its ministry of defence.
  • Ukraine’s commander of the Joint Forces, lieutenant general Alexander Pavlyuk, claimed Russian-backed troops have increased provocative actions in a bid to provoke Ukraine’s armed forces to fire.
  • Russia’s defence ministry claims to have withdrawn several infantry units from Crimea. The tanks are said to have returned to their bases in the regions of Dagestan and Chechnya after completing drills in Crimea.
  • Russia has offered an explanation as to why it expelled deputy US ambassador to Moscow, Bartle Gorman, earlier this week.
  • US secretary of state Antony Blinken is to meet the Russian foreign minister, Sergei Lavrov, next week, “provided there is no further Russian invasion of Ukraine” according to the US state department. Blinken earlier told a UN security council meeting that the crisis in Ukraine was a “moment of peril for the lives and safety of millions of people”.
  • US president Joe Biden will also host a call on Friday with Nato allies to discuss the Ukraine crisis, a White House official has confirmed.
  • Russian-backed rebels in eastern Ukraine have accused Kyiv government forces of shelling a village with artillery on Friday, the Interfax news agency is reporting. Similar accounts emerged on Thursday in operations that western leaders described as “false flag” operations.
  • Global leaders are preparing to meet in Germany for Friday’s Munich security conference. Attendees include Blinken and vice-president, Kamala Harris, along with the German chancellor, Olaf Scholz, the UK foreign secretary, Liz Truss, and Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelenskiy.
  • Germany’s foreign minister, Annalena Baerbock, has criticised Russia for its “cold war demands” and for declining to attend the Munich meeting.
  • The US Senate has voted in a rare bipartisan moment late on Thursday to send a show of support for an independent Ukraine whilst condemning Russian aggression, the Associated Press reported.
  • Western leaders accused Moscow of attempting to stage a pretext for war. The US president, Joe Biden, said he believed an attack would happen in “the next several days” and that a false-flag operation was under way.

Updated

Ukraine and Russia trade accusations of shelling and ceasefire violations

Ukrainian government forces and Russian-backed rebels in the country’s east have traded fresh accusations of shelling and other ceasefire violations as tensions continue to escalate.

Russia’s Interfax news agency reported the Luhansk self-proclaimed rebel republic reported several incidents of mortar fire this morning.

However, the Kyiv government hit back saying the rebels fired artillery or mortars four times on Friday.

Separately, the Ukrainian military said in a statement late on Thursday they had no plans to launch an offensive on the rebels’ positions or shelling of civilians and would “strictly adhere to the Minsk agreements and norms of international humanitarian law”.

“Our actions are purely defensive,” commander-in-chief of the armed forces of Ukraine lieutenant general Valery Zaluzhny said.

Ukraine’s commander of the Joint Forces, lieutenant general Alexander Pavlyuk, also released a statement overnight, claiming Russian-backed troops have increased provocative actions ahead of the Munich security conference in a bid to provoke Ukraine’s armed forces to fire.

Pavlyuk addressed reporters from Kramatorsk in eastern Ukraine. The Ukrainian ministry of defence published a report from his speech below:

The Russian Federation is trying to hide another crime against the defenders of Ukraine and the civilian population behind an information campaign … Russia is spreading [fake news] about the alleged shelling of the kindergarten by the United Forces.”

Referring to the “multiple shelling incidents” reported earlier by the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE), Pavlyuk said.

All this was done to provoke the armed forces to retaliate and accuse them of genocide. Instead, our armed Forces abide by the Minsk agreements, and respond only after all means of ceasefire through the OSCE and the SCCC have been exhausted, when the lives of servicemen are threatened.”

Updated

Ukraine says 60 ceasefire violations recorded over past 24 hours

Ukraine’s ministry of defence says it has recorded 60 ceasefire violations by separatists in the Donbas region over the past 24 hours, with one soldier injured, according to its ministry of defence.

A recent update published on the ministry’s website reads:

The Russian occupation forces continue to ignore the agreements reached on July 22, 2020 within the Tripartite Contact Group.

During the past 24 hours, on February 17, the armed forces of the Russian Federation recorded 60 violations of the ceasefire, 43 of which using weapons prohibited by the Minsk agreements.”

On Thursday morning, Russian-backed separatists launched an intense artillery barrage across the line of control with Ukrainian forces, shelling a nursery school and injuring three people, in what western leaders said was a “false flag operation”.

Updated

Infantry units withdraw from Crimea, Russia claims

Russia’s defence ministry claims to have withdrawn several infantry units from Crimea.

The tanks are said to have returned to their bases in the regions of Dagestan and Chechnya after completing drills in Crimea.

In recent days Russia has claimed to have withdrawn troops from Ukraine’s borders, even broadcasting videos of retreating infantries. However, western leaders have cast doubt on these assertions. US secretary of state, Antony Blinken, reiterated that there was no evidence it was pulling out any troops, telling a recent UN security council meeting that he believes Russia is preparing an invasion “in the coming days”.

The Interfax news agency cited a statement from Russia’s defence ministry:

Transportation of tanks and armoured tracked vehicles is carried out by rail over a distance of about one thousand kilometres.

Separately, Interfax cited the ministry as saying that a train loaded with tanks has departed an undisclosed location to deliver them back to their base in the Nizhny Novgorod province.

Russian army tanks are seen in a video provided by the Russian Defense Ministry being loaded onto railway platforms.
Russian army tanks are seen in a video provided by the Russian Defense Ministry being loaded onto railway platforms. Photograph: Russian Defence Ministry/ZUMA Press Wire Service/REX/Shutterstock

Updated

Global leaders are travelling to the southern German city to hold talks on the crisis in Ukraine.

In attendance will be the US secretary of state, Antony Blinken and vice-president, Kamala Harris, along with the German chancellor, Olaf Scholz, the UK foreign secretary, Liz Truss, and Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelenskiy.

UN chief Antonio Guterres, EU Commission head Ursula von der Leyen and Nato chief Jens Stoltenberg will also be there.

The foreign ministers of the Group of Seven (G7) nations are set to speak at length over the four-day conference, discussing efforts to get Russia to de-escalate and ways to strengthen European security.

Russia risking peace with ‘cold War demands’, Germany FM says

Germany’s foreign minister, Annalena Baerbock, has released a statement ahead of the Munich security conference that begins today. She criticises Russia for its “cold war demands” and for declining to attend the meeting.

Baerbock said in a statement:

With an unprecedented deployment of troops on the border with Ukraine and cold war demands, Russia is challenging fundamental principles of the European peace order.

I am travelling to Munich today to discuss how we can still counter the logic of threats of violence and military escalation with the logic of dialogue.

It is a loss that Russia is not taking advantage of this opportunity.”

Moscow needs to show “serious steps towards de-escalation”, she added.

Updated

Russia justifies expulsion of deputy US ambassador to Moscow

Russia has offered an explanation as to why it expelled deputy US ambassador to Moscow, Bartle Gorman, earlier this week.

The decision was made in response to the expulsion of the minister-counselor of the Russian embassy in Washington, the Russian foreign ministry said in a statement.

Spokesperson Maria Zakharova said:

The American diplomat was indeed ordered to leave Russia, but strictly in response to the unreasonable expulsion of the minister-counsellor of our embassy in Washington, despite his status as a leading official.

Moreover, the State Department defiantly ignored our appeal with a request to extend his stay at least until the arrival of the ‘replacement’.

As a result, he was forced to leave without a replacement, which aggravated the already critical shortage of personnel in the Russian diplomatic mission, formed as a result of the ‘visa war’ unleashed by the Americans.”

At the time, the US embassy called the expulsion an “escalatory step” but Zakharova claimed that “it was the American side that initiated the next exchange of expulsions in September 2021, demanding the departure of 55 Russian diplomats and administrative and technical employees”.

DCM Gorman was the second-most senior official at the US embassy in Moscow.

Russia expelled deputy US ambassador Bartle Gorman from the country earlier this week.
Russia expelled deputy US ambassador Bartle Gorman from the country earlier this week. Photograph: Reuters

Updated

Hello it’s Samantha Lock with you as we take a look at all the latest live news on the Ukraine crisis.

Let’s jump in with a summary of the key events overnight.

  • US secretary of state Antony Blinken is to meet the Russian foreign minister, Sergei Lavrov, next week, “provided there is no further Russian invasion of Ukraine” according to the US state department. Blinken earlier told a UN security council meeting that the crisis in Ukraine was a “moment of peril for the lives and safety of millions of people”.
  • US president Joe Biden will also host a call on Friday with Nato allies to discuss the Ukraine crisis, a White House official has confirmed.
  • Russian-backed rebels in eastern Ukraine have accused Kyiv government forces of shelling a village with artillery on Friday, the Interfax news agency is reporting. Similar accounts emerged on Thursday in operations that western leaders described as “false flag” operations.
  • Global leaders are preparing to meet in Germany for Friday’s Munich security conference. Attendees include Blinken and vice-president, Kamala Harris, along with the German chancellor, Olaf Scholz, the UK foreign secretary, Liz Truss, and Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelenskiy.
  • Germany’s foreign minister, Annalena Baerbock, has criticised Russia for its “cold war demands” and for declining to attend the Munich meeting.
  • The US Senate has voted in a rare bipartisan moment late on Thursday to send a show of support for an independent Ukraine whilst condemning Russian aggression, the Associated Press reported.
  • Western leaders accused Moscow of attempting to stage a pretext for war. The US president, Joe Biden, said he believed an attack would happen in “the next several days” and that a false-flag operation was underway.
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