Russia and Kazakhstan have tried to calm speculation about the cause of the Azerbaijan Airlines plane crash, following claims that it was shot down by Russian air defence systems.
On Thursday, Moscow urged calm as its foreign minister said it would be wrong to draw conclusions before an investigation into the crash was complete.
The flight had been set to travel to Grozny, the capital of Russia’s southern republic of Chechnya, on Wednesday, but instead diverted and crash-landed a few kilometres short of Aktau airport in Kazakhstan.
Unverified video footage of the crash showed the aircraft descending and hitting the ground, where it burst into flames, killing 38 of the 67 people on board.
Russia’s aviation watchdog said a preliminary investigation indicated that the pilot had decided to change landing site after “a collision with birds”. But the Reuters news agency noted that the plane had diverted from an area of Russia that Moscow has recently defended against Ukrainian drone attacks.
On Wednesday, Andriy Kovalenko, the head of Ukraine’s National Security and Defence Council’s Centre for Countering Disinformation, said on X (formerly Twitter) that the plane had been “shot down by a Russian air defence system”. He claimed to have seen footage from inside the plane showing punctured life vests. Sources also made the same claim to Reuters.
Mr Kovalenko said: “However, admitting this is inconvenient for everyone, so efforts will be made to cover it up, even the holes in the remaining parts of the aircraft.”
This morning, an Embraer 190 aircraft of an Azerbaijani airline, flying from Baku to Grozny, was shot down by a Russian air defense system. However, admitting this is inconvenient for everyone, so efforts will be made to cover it up, even the holes in the remaining parts of the…
— Andriy Kovalenko (@AndriKovalenko) December 25, 2024
An analyst at consultancy AeroDynamic Advisory also raised doubts over the possibility of a bird strike, adding: “You can lose control of the plane, but you don’t fly wildly off course as a consequence.”
Some commentators have also alleged that holes seen in images of the plane’s tail section after the crash might indicate that it came under fire.
Both Moscow and Kazakhstan have sought to dampen speculation over Moscow’s possible involvement. Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said on Thursday that an investigation into the cause of the crash is underway and that it would be wrong to speculate on “hypotheses” before that is complete.
Kazakhstan’s senate chair stated that the cause of the crash is unknown, adding: “None of these countries – neither Azerbaijan, Russia nor Kazakhstan – is interested in hiding information. All information will be made available to the public.”
Azeri president Ilham Aliyev also said it was too soon to speculate on the cause of the crash, adding that he had been told that bad weather in Grozny had forced the flight to divert.
Mr Aliyev said: “The information provided to me is that the plane changed its course between Baku and Grozny due to worsening weather conditions and headed to Aktau airport, where it crashed upon landing.”
Commercial aviation-tracking websites monitored the flight as it flew north on its scheduled route along the west coast before it disappeared. It then reappeared on the east coast, where it circled near Aktau airport before crashing into an area close to the beach.
Kazakh officials said that those on board the plane included 42 Azerbaijani citizens, 16 Russian nationals, six Kazakhs and three Kyrgyzstan nationals. Five of the 67 were crew.
