Russia may bolster troops on its border with Finland after Turkey blocked its bid to join NATO, an expert has warned.
Turkey's President Recep Tayyip Erdogan blocking Sweden and Finland from joining the alliance may lead to Russian President Vladimir Putin building up troops on the border.
In a shock move, President Erdogan confirmed his decision to block Finland and Sweden's decision to join NATO.
He said Sweden should not expect Turkey to approve its bid without returning people it deems terrorists harboured by the two countries - namely the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) militant group.
Dr Samuel Ramani, an international relations expert at Oxford University and Royal United Services Institute for Defence and Security Studies, has said that Russia is probably "pretty happy" with Turkey.
He told The Mirror that Russian media is trying to use this as proof that NATO does not really want Sweden and Finland.
Dr Ramani said: "Russia is using this as a disinformation front at home to reinforce their narrative about NATO being an American hostage organisation."
Russia may be emboldened by Erdogan's move and Dr Ramani says Putin might order more troops on the Finnish border.
However, he added: "They have a manpower shortage right now. But Russian military strategy has been so unpredictable and sometimes baffling in terms of its rationality that it is possible."
A British Ministry of Defence update said Russian forces' capabilities are degrading.
It continued: "Many of these capabilities cannot be quickly replaced or reconstituted, and are likely to continue to hinder Russian operations in Ukraine."
Despite Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov saying Finland and Sweden joining was a "grave mistake" with "far-reaching consequences", President Vladimir Putin said their bids to join NATO posed no direct threat to Russia.
Turkish state broadcaster TRT said the two Nordic countries had not approved Ankara's request for the repatriation of 33 people with alleged links to groups it sees as terrorists.
Dr Ramani thinks it could be hot air and he believes Erdogan is taking the chance to wield his NATO power as a bargaining chip to get concessions.
He said: "Maybe they want to get recognition of Turkish jurisdiction over certain parts of the Mediterranean, or for a blind eye to be turned on their conduct in Syria and Iraq, all in exchange for accepting Sweden’s membership.
"I don't think they're going to actually block."
Erodgan believes Greece's accession to the alliance was a "mistake" and has disputes over its sovereignty over its east Aegean islands.
Declassified UK also reports that Turkish-backed militias are complicit in human rights abuses in Syria.
Turkey says that in 2019, PKK supporters held a protest in a shopping centre in support of their jailed leader Abdullah Öcalan and Swedish security forces did nothing to prevent them from carrying the PKK’s “flag” and portraits of Öcalan.
Sweden's parliament recognised the mass killings of Armenians by Turkish forces as genocide and Turkey "got really upset", says Dr Ramani.
Dr Ramani says Turkeys has a "paranoia" about the incorporation of "potentially anti-Turkish countries" into the NATO bloc.
He continued: "So if they see Sweden has been hostile to Turkish policy, they will be fearful about them coming in."
The chairman of the Swedish Parliament's Foreign Affairs Committee, Kenneth Forslund, said a solution could be found, but elsewhere.
"That Sweden would start expelling people who are not considered terrorists according to the terror lists the EU has, that's totally unthinkable," he said.
