Russia has initiated a significant withdrawal of military equipment and troops from Syria following the removal of former Syrian president Bashar al-Assad. The withdrawal, described as large-scale and significant by US and western officials, commenced last week. However, the permanency of this move remains uncertain.
Reports from US and western intelligence indicate that Russian officials are exploring the possibility of negotiating with Hayat Tahrir al Sham (HTS), the main rebel group now in control of Syria. The aim is to potentially reach a settlement that would allow Russia to maintain presence at key bases such as the Khmeimim airbase in Latakia and a port facility at Tartus.
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov confirmed Russia's engagement with rebels in Damascus, emphasizing the need to stay in touch with those controlling the ground situation due to existing facilities and personnel in Syria.
Recent developments suggest that Russia is transferring naval assets from Syria to Libya, with efforts to secure a port in Benghazi. The potential loss of Tartus in Syria could leave Russia without a Mediterranean sea port for power projection on NATO's southern flank.
Flight records and satellite imagery reveal Russian cargo planes visiting Libya's al-Khadim base multiple times, indicating a shift in operations towards Africa. Satellite images also captured preparations for aircraft departure from Russian military bases in Syria, including the dismantling of military equipment at Khmeimim airbase.
US officials noted increased freedom to conduct anti-ISIS operations in Syria following the withdrawal of Russian air defense systems. The US Central Command has carried out airstrikes targeting ISIS camps and operatives in Syria post-Assad's removal, leveraging the altered airspace dynamics.
The US State Department refrained from commenting on pressuring Syria's interim government to expel Russian forces but highlighted Russia's history of complicity in atrocities within Syria. The disposition of Russian bases in Syria is deemed a matter for the Syrian people to decide.
The evolving situation in Syria underscores a shift in power dynamics and strategic realignments in the region, with implications for ongoing military operations and diplomatic engagements.