Tim Boyle was bad enough to be replaced by Trevor Siemian for the New York Jets Sunday. But he’s always bad, so no one really paid all that much attention.
Russell Wilson, on the other hand, stopped a five-game winning streak in its tracks with a performance well below his 2023 standard. Thus, Boyle avoids a place on this week’s grossest quarterbacks list while Wilson reigns at No. 1.
Wilson was a problem for Denver, snuffing out his team’s comeback efforts with poorly timed interceptions that ended potential scoring drives and eventually closed out a thrilling game. He may have been a problem in Week 13, but was he truly the most disappointing? Fortunately, we’ve got tools to better understand just how damaging each underwhelming performances was. Using the advanced stat expected points added (EPA) can gauge how much a quarterback brings to the table compared to a typical player.
By comparing each passer’s Week 13 EPA against their 2023 adjusted average, we get a better picture of just how frustrating their days were. And we can find both of those thanks to The Athletic’s Ben Baldwin and his incredibly useful stats sites RBSDM.com and HabitatRing.com. So let’s take a look at who disappointed the most in the 13th Sunday of the 2023 season.
3
Bailey Zappe, New England Patriots
2023 expected points added (EPA) per game: -4.3
Week 13 EPA: -11.1
Difference: 6.8 points worse
Here’s the thing: Bailey Zappe has been horrible in 2023. The only quarterback to have played at least 30 snaps this season with a worse EPA/play was Arizona Cardinals rookie Clayton Tune. He is No. 50 in a 51-man sample size.
Zappe dropped back 30 times for 109 net yards on a rainy Sunday afternoon. He was done no favors by the weather, his blocking or the fact Rhamondre Stevenson was lost due to injury after only nine carries. Still, he stared down the league’s 32nd-best defense (in terms of yards allowed) and failed to score a single dang point. I mean, he might have if he had some more reliable targets:
Tyquan Thornton can't reel in an absolutely perfect pass by Bailey Zappe pic.twitter.com/ZqpWkTK3fv
— Ben Brown 🌻 (@BenBrownPL) December 3, 2023
OK, so maybe this is too harsh on the Patriot backup. New England is a disaster and not even prime Tom Brady would have looked good with this team and this weather. But the fact remains Zappe had a low bar to clear and still managed to contort his way under it. His Week 13 start will be a Rorschach test for New England fans; either he’s a terrible quarterback or merely a bad one who couldn’t turn a horrible situation into something better.
2
Sam Howell, Washington Commanders
2023 expected points added (EPA) per game: 1.9
Week 13 EPA: -8.2
Difference: 10.1 points worse
Howell hasn’t been great for the Commanders, but he’s been decent enough in stretches, capable of throwing the ball 50 times per game and generally tries his hardest. He’s earned a shot to evolve with the post-Ron Rivera team that emerges in 2024, even if he hasn’t proven he’s a franchise cornerstone yet.
And here’s why Washington is right to be concerned about its young quarterback:
.@AndrewVanGinkel said SEE YA 👋 pic.twitter.com/eFkrvM7of3
— Miami Dolphins (@MiamiDolphins) December 3, 2023
Howell is leading the league in passing yards because he’s prone to mistakes like the one above — his third pick-six in as many weeks. The Commanders are constantly trailing and, thus, constantly throwing the ball. Ripping an interception on a screen pass five yards behind the line of scrimmage was a new wrinkle, but not a foreign one for a player who’s been picked off eight times his last seven games.
His performance is also notable for who isn’t getting the ball in his system. Washington’s leading receiver Sunday was Curtis Samuel. He was the only wideout to have more than 23 yards through the air.
Terry McLaurin, once a lock to haul in about 1,100 yards each season, went without a reception on three targets in Week 13 and has just 126 yards over his last four games. This is a guy who found ways to shine with Dwayne Haskins, late-stage Alex Smith, Taylor Heinicke, Kyle Allen, late-stage Carson Wentz and Garrett Gilbert as his quarterbacks. Why can’t Howell find a connection with him?
1
Russell Wilson, Denver Broncos
2023 expected points added (EPA) per game: 4.1
Week 13 EPA: -9.3
Difference: 13.4 points worse
Wilson put the Broncos in position to win this game after an early deficit. He also took them out of it.
The veteran quarterback put together the best stretch of his Denver career while leading his team into the playoff hunt, but his struggles Sunday could be the reason why the Broncos miss the postseason. Wilson threw three interceptions, each of which came in the final 16 minutes of a tight ballgame — the last of which snuffed out any hope of a comeback win.
WELCOME BACK JIMMIE WARD ‼️ pic.twitter.com/Ts126dxQb8
— Houston Texans (@HoustonTexans) December 3, 2023
This was frustrating; Wilson hadn’t been great early in the game but interspliced rushed passes with moments of brilliance. His third quarter deep ball to Courtland Sutton was not just a gorgeous drop in a bucket but yet another gorgeous Sutton touchdown grab.
WHAT. A. CATCH.
📺: CBS pic.twitter.com/xzJ6Ugd3Lp
— Denver Broncos (@Broncos) December 3, 2023
To his credit, Wilson was willing to test the Texans deep. He threw eight passes that traveled at least 20 yards downfield and completed three of them. He also got baited into a beautiful interception by young cornerback Derek Stingley Jr.
WOW 🤯🤯🤯 pic.twitter.com/I19nE2JEKM
— Houston Texans (@HoustonTexans) December 3, 2023
Thus, Wilson lands on the list after a three turnover day and just 5.7 yards per dropback despite that penchant for deep throws. Houston was able to pester him with its pass rush and clean up the mistakes he left on the table. Now the Texans have a huge edge in the AFC playoff race over a fellow contender.
