Sir Keir Starmer’s first nine months in office have been far from easy. From the backlash against cuts to benefits, to mounting global instability and an impending trade war with the US, the prime minister has faced a number of challenges since he won the keys to 10 Downing Street.
But 200 miles from Westminster, Runcorn and Helsby is where the prime minister faces his next major test.
A safe Labour seat in an area that has been held by the party for more than 40 years, the optics of a loss in the forthcoming by-election would be disastrous for the government, not least because Reform UK is most likely to snatch the seat.
By-elections are typically characterised by low voter turnout and an increase in tactical voting, and are notoriously difficult to predict. But current local polling puts Nigel Farage’s party neck and neck with Labour.
“I don’t agree with everything Reform says, but it’s all about having a third option really. The Tories don’t know what they’re doing. Labour have now proven they don’t,” one voter in his twenties told The Independent.
But the majority secured by Labour in July shouldn’t be underestimated. Mike Amesbury, who resigned after he was convicted of assault for punching a constituent, won by 15,000 votes after securing the backing of 52 per cent of the electorate. In second place, with 7,662 votes and just 18 per cent of the vote, was Reform UK.
By-elections are traditionally fought on local issues such as roads, bins and leisure centres. But Labour’s more controversial economic policies have brought the impact of national politics to the forefront of people’s minds in Runcorn.
From the decision to means-test winter fuel payments and hike national insurance, to last week’s benefits cuts, people feel let down by a government that promised change and they are fearful for their ability to pay bills and put food on the table.
Andrew Gaskell, who voted Labour at the last election, is one of many Runcorn voters unsure if he will do the same again. “I’m disappointed,” he told The Independent. “I’m disappointed really with the chancellor. The way she’s tried to raise money, I don’t think she’s done it in the right way.”
“I just think Labour has lost the plot,” said a second voter, who is considering voting for the Tories.
Simultaneously, there is also a strong sense of frustration with national politics – with many feeling that Runcorn has been left behind.
Alan Bennion, who has lived in the area since 1977, was unimpressed with Labour’s campaign in the area, urging the party’s candidate Karen Shore to tell voters who she is and what she stands for, rather repeat “this bulls*** about blackholes” – referencing Labour’s repeated claim that they were left with a £22bn void in the public finances.
Most people The Independent spoke to were uninterested in voting, while others said they planned to vote Labour out of loyalty and habit – and because they view the party as the least bad option.
Perhaps it is this frustration that has encouraged the major candidates all to focus on the local, rather than dwelling on national problems.
While Labour’s campaign team were keen to avoid talking the area down, stressing that there is an immense sense of local pride, Shore has put an emphasis on local regeneration in her campaign.
“Like many towns, Runcorn feels like it’s a bit forgotten,” she told The Independent, adding: “It’s not a small thing for people who feel that their town has been left behind. To know that they are cared for and they are thought about and there is money being invested in their community.”
Meanwhile, Reform’s candidate Sarah Pochin decried the lack of a local leisure centre and cinema complex – leaving the party’s migration rhetoric as more of an afterthought.
“There’s absolutely nothing here, and people are really fed up. The town centre is in desperate need of investment and regeneration, and nothing’s happening,” she said.
While some voters said they were concerned about public services as a result of migration, the cost of living, housing and benefits appeared to be far more pressing concerns.
Pochin – who has set up a conspicuous open-fronted campaign office in a local shopping centre – has put a clear “vote for change” message at the centre of her pitch to voters.
“Labour have done absolutely nothing for the constituency,” she claimed. “They’ve been in power here for 40 years, both in terms of the Labour MP and a Labour-controlled council.
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“Voters have just had enough, because they can see their quality of life going down. Forty years is a hell of a long time for nothing to happen,” Pochin said.
While Shore admitted the by-election would be a challenge, her campaign team appeared to be quietly confident.
“We’re working really, really hard to take the electorate with us,” she told The Independent. “Labour is in the phase of fixing the foundations and if change is going to continue to be delivered, then you need to elect a Labour MP.”
But the party has also been burned in Runcorn by its decision to extend inheritance tax to agricultural properties, an issue which has sparked months of anger and frustration from rural communities. While Runcorn itself is an industrial town and cargo port, the Runcorn and Helsby constituency includes a significant rural area, making up 60 per cent of the seat.
Tory candidate Sean Houlston is attempting to pick up some votes as a result of rural discontent. “I think the farming tax is unfair. You’re changing the environment for a specific group of people. I really think fairness is important,” he told The Independent.
“I’ve spoken to lots of farmers in the area who are worried what the future means for them... it’s really affecting them. I’m trying to make the rural vote feel more listened to because I don’t think they do really.”
But while there is certainly anger about Labour’s first nine months in office, this sentiment is counterbalanced by a lingering distrust of the Tories, and concern about Reform’s toxic reputation.
While some constituents see Farage’s party as an exciting new option, its polarising politics have left others vowing to vote for whoever necessary in order to keep them out.
A female voter in her mid-40s, who plans to vote Labour in May, said: “I just don’t trust Reform at all. I wouldn’t vote for them in a million years and the Conservatives have just ruined our country over the last 14 years.” Another said they “wouldn’t touch Reform with a bargepole”.
As one of the safest Labour seats in the UK, there is no doubt that it will be a tough fight to overturn Amesbury’s majority. But having spent the first nine months in power struggling to get a grip on the narrative, a by-election loss in such a safe seat would be a disaster for Labour.
Even with the best expectation management in the world, the message such a loss would send would be hard to ignore.
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