Annastacia Palaszczuk has never faced a serious threat to her leadership.
In 11 years as Labor leader – the past eight as premier – there have been no attempted coups or plots, or Canberra-style white-anting by ambitious rivals. Most senior ministers are part of the furniture. Backbenchers rarely vent their concerns, even privately.
From the outside, Queensland’s government looks about as stable as any in the post-Howard era of Australia’s political soap opera.
And yet there is, according to multiple media reports, a “coup brewing” in Queensland, as Palaszczuk leaves for a European holiday following a series of policy missteps and bungled manoeuvres in recent weeks and months.
This speculation is premature. None of the trio touted as possible future leaders – deputy premier Steven Miles, Shannon Fentiman and Cameron Dick – appears to be readying themselves for an imminent challenge.
“I understand there will always be chatter, there will always be rumours and gossip,” Miles told reporters in Brisbane on Sunday.
“What I know is a great strength of our government has been our stability and our unity, and the leadership that Annastacia has provided, and I intend to continue that unity and stability.”
But the discontent within the Labor caucus is real and has been for some time.
The linchpin of Palaszczuk’s premiership is her personal popularity. That is waning. If it collapses much further, Labor MPs say her internal support would all but evaporate.
How did we get here?
Labor built its last state election campaign almost solely around Palaszczuk’s appeal. She is like “the mayor of Queensland”, colleagues say; a unique politician able to appeal to voters in Townsville and Toowong, at opposite ends of a deeply complex state.
Since Labor came to power unexpectedly in 2015, Labor’s powerbrokers and MPs have always been acutely aware that their best interests were served with Palaszczuk at the helm.
Her “both sides of the street” brand of politics has been effective maintaining power bases in Brisbane and Queensland’s regional cities. But there are some indications the tactic is now backfiring.
When Labor does something that might prompt backlash from one bloc of voters (like, for example, suspending the Human Rights Act), it typically offers a carrot in return.
This week, the party’s attempt to pass new legislation to allow extended detention of children in watch houses came bundled with a few other reforms designed to blunt criticism from angry progressive voters. They included ending the practice of police covert operations targeting sex workers, and scrapping the offence of “public drunkenness”.
One MP said: “It is starting to become very frustrating that these really good things we do aren’t getting noticed. It would be great if they could get some coverage as well.”
At the October 2024 election, Labor will face intensified threats in the city and the regions; from the Greens in a handful of Brisbane seats, and from the LNP in regional areas, where they have helped foment unrest about youth crime.
A recent Resolve Strategic poll in the Brisbane Times put the opposition ahead and Palaszczuk’s personal popularity slipping.
Does this mean the end for Palaszczuk?
Labor sources say a challenge (which is not a straightforward process under party rules) would only occur if it became obvious the premier could not win the next election, and if another candidate was clearly a better option. And we’re not there yet.
If that point does arrive, Palaszczuk almost certainly will not have the internal support to survive.
Ministers, MPs and their staff complain privately about the way Palaszczuk and her staff run the government. Her office is a cautious, tightly controlled operation that tends to dictate to ministers how, and when, their own announcements are made. Optics trump outcomes.
None of that is a problem when you win three elections in a row. It suddenly comes clearly into focus when staring at possible defeat.
