With the latest edition of the Six Nations nearly done and dusted, attention turns to this autumn's Rugby World Cup, which is now less than six months away. In September, the world's greatest rugby talent will descend on Paris for eight weeks of non-stop action, with South Africa looking to defend the title they won in Japan four years ago.
But the Springboks are one of three teams who face an early exit this time around, with the draw for the tournament leaving the current top five teams in the world in the same half of the draw and only allowing two of them a space in the semi-finals.
The 2023 draw was made back in December 2020, just over a year on from the tournament in Japan, with seedings decided on what the world rankings were at the start of 2020, due to the Covid-19 pandemic. At that time, the new World Champions South Africa topped the standings, followed by New Zealand, England and then reigning Grand Slam champions Wales in fourth place to make up the top seeds.
However, more than three years on, the top teams in the world look significantly different, with Ireland and France now topping the pile. The All Blacks and Springboks are still in the mix, ranking third and fourth respectively, but England have slipped to sixth in the world while Wales have come close to falling out of the top 10.
The current rankings points show the top four are streets ahead of the rest, with Scotland in fifth after beating both England and Wales this year.
All in all, the decision to hold the draw so far out from the start of the tournament itself has left the competition lopsided, with one side loaded with highly-ranked teams while the other lacks any team from inside the world's top five.
For example, Pool B sees world number ones Ireland, who were ranked fifth back in 2020 and therefore in the second band of seeds for the draw, take on both South Africa and Scotland (who were ninth and in the third band when the draw was made but have now surged to fifth in the world).
That means that one of those sides will be elimanated at the pool stage, while the other two will progress to the quarter-finals and meet the top two teams in Pool A. However, this pool features France and New Zealand, the current second and third highest ranked sides in the world.
Wales, on the other hand, face a relatively kinder pool stage, with Australia, currently ranked two places above them in the world rankings, their biggest threat. Warren Gatland's side will also take on Georgia (currently 12th), Fiji (currently 13th) and Portugal (currently 16th), while England face nobody currently ranked higher than eighth, including Chile who are currently placed 22nd in the world.
It means Wales can reach the semi-finals by beating either Japan, Argentina or England in the quarter-finals if they get out of their group.
Rugby World Cup 2023 groups and current rankings
Pool A: New Zealand (3), France (2), Italy (14), Uruguay (17), Namibia (21)
Pool B: South Africa (4), Ireland (1), Scotland (5), Tonga (15), Romania (20)
Pool C: Wales (9), Australia (7), Fiji (13), Georgia (12), Portugal (16)
Pool D: England (6), Japan (10), Argentina (8), Samoa (11), Chile (22)
Rankings correct as of March 14 2023
The early draw and its impact on the tournament had previously been slammed for creating a "horrendous situation," with former England star Stuart Barnes tearing into the decision which he said had "distorted" and "damaged" the competition.
Writing in The Times last year, he said: “Unfortunately, the ridiculously early pool draw in December 2020 has distorted the next World Cup. Most would agree that an ideal is for the best quartet of teams to have the best opportunity of making the semi-finals. In France, two of the world’s leading contenders will be out before the semi-final stage.
“The host country are in pool A with New Zealand, while South Africa and Ireland are both in pool B. At the quarter-final stage, the winners of pool A face the runners-up of pool B and vice-versa - meaning that a maximum of two of the four best sides can reach the semi-finals. This is a horrendous situation; the premature draw has damaged the competition."
Barnes is not alone in his criticism, however, with rugby reporter Charles Richardson also claiming that the lopsided World Cup was "far from auspicious" with the pooling of Ireland, South Africa and Scotland viewed as making a mockery of the official world rankings.
"Three years ago, the prospect of one of [Ireland, South Africa or Scotland] not progressing from the pool stages would have been viewed as harsh but not hideously unfair," he wrote in the Telegraph. "Now, however, the landscape has shifted. Scotland, after victories over England and Wales alongside a valiant defeat in Paris can no longer be considered the relative whipping boys of that pool.
"Of course, the bookmakers will have Scotland as the favourites to book early flights home but it is not inconceivable that Townsend’s side could beat South Africa or Ireland on their day.
"That means that either the defending world champions or the likely No 1-ranked team in the world could depart the tournament in the pool stage. That is not the best look for a tournament that has been billed as the biggest and best World Cup yet. "
He added: "Three of the world’s top five teams should not be in the same pool – that is the bottom line. Anomalies and groups of death are present across all competitions in all sports but it is rare that they make a mockery of their respective governing bodies’ official rankings in such stark fashion.
"The World Cup should be as esteemed and enthralling a showcase of rugby as possible – and it should be representative of the year in which it is taking place. Sadly, the signs are that the 2023 edition will be taking place based on the 2020 competencies of its competing nations. For that, one of Scotland, Ireland and South Africa will be collateral damage."
Former Northampton Saints and England star Paul Grayson also criticised the draw in his column for the Mirror, describing it as "nonsense" and claiming that it made rugby "a laughing stock".
"It should be the least predictable tournament we've known," he wrote. "Yet with World Rugby insisting on the draw being made three years ago, we find ourselves with the sport’s top five nations together in the same half. A complete nonsense.
He added: "It does nothing for the sport's credibility. Show me another sport that does it this way. Did Wimbledon make the draw for this year’s championships in 2020? Of course not. Last year’s football World Cup? Nope, that was just seven months before kick-off in Qatar. This cannot be allowed to happen again."
Despite critics' frustration, however, World Rugby has previously made explanations for the need for an early draw, including maximising ticket sales and securing appropriate stadiums that may otherwise be booked for other sporting or cultural events. Making the draw years ahead of the tournament also means that hundreds of thousands of fans will not need to find accommodation, book tickets or make travel arrangements at short notice.
Regardless, there is set to be a change ahead of the 2027 tournament in Australia, with the draw likely to take place later in the World Cup cycle than it was for the 2023 edition. However, this change of date is likely to only be by a few months, rather than years and is still dependent on market factors.
A date for the next draw is expected to be agreed when the Rugby World Cup board and World Rugby council meet in the final week of this year's tournament.
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