Should Ireland lift the trophy in Paris on 28 October, no one could say they did it the easy way. Andy Farrell’s world No 1 side face meetings with South Africa, the defending champions, plus Gregor Townsend’s accomplished Scotland as well as Tonga and Romania.
If the tournament’s closest thing to a group of death unfolds as expected, a battle-hardened Ireland should progress to a quarter-final against France or New Zealand. There are no guarantees, but with a settled squad, a talented and equally settled coaching team and a Six Nations clean sweep freshly secured, they have no reason to fear anyone.
That fly-half Johnny Sexton escaped a ban extending into the World Cup for his post-Champions Cup final tirade at match officials is a considerable bonus, too. Ireland’s history at Rugby World Cups is not a happy one and the draw has not been kind, but there is a quiet confidence emanating from Farrell and co that things will be different this time.
While the rankings say Ireland are the No 1 team it is increasingly difficult to see how any opposing coach solves a problem such as South Africa. The Springboks finished their warm-up programme by inflicting a record 35-7 defeat on the All Blacks at Twickenham, that historic result coming a week after Jacques Nienaber’s team put 50 points on a seemingly helpless Wales in Cardiff.
With their inspirational captain, Siya Kolisi, recovered from injury and their forward pack looking as dominant as ever, it all points to the 2019 champions peaking at the perfect time. The often controversial Rassie Erasmus, mastermind of their triumph four years ago, remains in overall control as director of rugby with Nienaber in the more visible position of head coach. The good news for everyone else? The 35-20 defeat by New Zealand in Auckland in July shows they are not infallible.
Scotland begin their campaign with an intimidating meeting with the Boks in Marseille, but if there is a fly-half capable of negating South Africa’s power through tactical kicking and visionary distribution it is Finn Russell. Not since 2017 have Scotland managed a victory against Ireland, though, and there should be plenty riding on the outcome when the sides run out at Stade de France on 7 October in Pool B’s penultimate match.
Tonga, ranked 15th in the world, and the 19th-ranked Romania will focus all their energy on staging an upset, but it remains hard to see one happening with the quality they will come up against. The margin of error in Pool B is nonexistent and one bad day – or heaven forbid, two – should mean a ticket home for Scotland, Ireland, or indeed South Africa.
From a neutral perspective, saving a collision between the mighty French and South African forward packs for the final appears the most appealing option. What’s that old saying about needing to beat the best to win a World Cup? The two sides emerging from Pool B will have earned a place in the last eight.
Key match: Ireland v Scotland
Working on the basis that South Africa conquer all before them, the meeting between two European rivals in Paris on 7 October would be a shootout for a quarter-final place.
Ireland – world ranking 1
Coach Andy Farrell Captain Johnny Sexton RWC best quarter-finals 1987, 1991, 1995, 2003, 2011, 2015, 2019
Key player Josh van der Flier
The dynamic No 7 gets through a mountain of work in setting the platform for Sexton’s vision at No 10 and in enabling Ireland’s all-court attack.
Last summer’s 2-1 series victory away in New Zealand was a demonstration of what this squad is capable of, and winning their fourth grand slam in this year’s Six Nations backed it up. The challenge for Ireland is to produce their best when it matters and plot a path beyond the quarter-finals. From Tadhg Beirne to Caelan Doris in the forwards through to Hugo Keenan and Mack Hansen in the back division, the squad is bubbling with talent. Cohesion, that increasingly well-worn term in rugby, has always been the name of the game for Farrell: now is the time to pull it all together.
Forwards
Ryan Baird (13 caps) Leinster; Finlay Bealham (32) Connacht; Tadhg Beirne (41) Munster; Jack Conan (39) Leinster; Caelan Doris (31) Leinster; Tadhg Furlong (67) Leinster; Iain Henderson (74) Ulster; Rob Herring (37) Ulster; Rónan Kelleher (21) Leinster; Dave Kilcoyne (52) Munster; Jeremy Loughman (3) Munster; Joe McCarthy (3) Leinster; Peter O’Mahony (96) Munster; Tom O’Toole (11) Ulster; Andrew Porter (54) Leinster; James Ryan (55) Leinster; Dan Sheehan (18) Leinster; Josh van der Flier (52) Leinster.
Backs
Bundee Aki (47 caps) Connacht; Ross Byrne (21) Leinster; Craig Casey (12) Munster; Jack Crowley (6) Munster; Keith Earls (100) Munster; Jamison Gibson-Park (26) Leinster; Mack Hansen (16) Connacht; Robbie Henshaw (64) Leinster; Hugo Keenan (31) Leinster; James Lowe (21) Leinster; Stuart McCloskey (13) Ulster; Conor Murray (106) Munster; Jimmy O’Brien (6) Leinster; Garry Ringrose (51) Leinster; Johnny Sexton (113) Leinster.
South Africa – world ranking 2
Coach Jacques Nienaber Captain Siya Kolisi RWC best Champions 1995, 2007, 2019
Key player Eben Etzebeth
The second row personifies South Africa’s power. Rock-solid at the set piece and a constant menace across the field, he would walk into any nation’s first-choice XV.
As the former Ireland coach Declan Kidney once said: “You never retain anything: You give it back and try to win it again.” South Africa’s attempt at a second consecutive trophy and a record fourth is shaping up rather nicely. Competition for places in the pack is particularly fierce but the “Bomb Squad” is divided into starters and finishers, rather than first-choice picks and replacements. Handing a first Test start at outside centre to a 20-year-old in the final warm-up match could smack of desperation for anyone else. In the case of the talented Canan Moodie, it was another example of the options available to the world champions.
Forwards
Pieter-Steph du Toit (69) Toyota Verblitz; Eben Etzebeth (112) Sharks; Deon Fourie (7) Stormers; Steven Kitshoff (74 caps) Ulster; Jean Kleyn (2) Munster; Vincent Koch (45) Sharks; Siya Kolisi (captain, 75) Racing 92; Frans Malherbe (61) Stormers; Malcolm Marx (61) Kubota Spears; Bongi Mbonambi (60) Sharks; Franco Mostert (65) Honda Heat; Ox Nche (19) Sharks; Trevor Nyakane (61) Racing 92; Marvin Orie (14) Perpignan; Kwagga Smith (33) Shizuoka Blue Revs; RG Snyman (26) Munster; Marco van Staden (12) Bulls; Duane Vermeulen (68) SA Rugby; Jasper Wiese (22) Leicester.
Backs
Kurt-Lee Arendse (10) Bulls; Damian de Allende (Wild Knights, 72 caps); Faf de Klerk (48) Eagles; Andre Esterhuizen (13) Harlequins; Jaden Hendrikse (12) Sharks; Jesse Kriel (61) Eagles; Cheslin Kolbe (25) Suntory Sungoliath; Willie le Roux (86) Bulls; Manie Libbok (7) Stormers; Makazole Mapimpi (38) Sharks; Canan Moodie (6) Bulls; Cobus Reinach (25) Montpelllier; Damian Willemse (31) Stormers; Grant Williams (4) Sharks.
Scotland – world ranking 5
Coach Gregor Townsend Captain Jamie Ritchie RWC best Fourth 1991
Key player Finn Russell is their attacking fulcrum and pulls the strings like no one else at fly-half. Devastatingly effective at his best – and Scotland will need him to be.
The head coach, Gregor Townsend, identified Pool B as the tournament’s toughest after the draw, nearly three years ago, but will offer no excuses should Scotland fail to progress to the last eight. Russell has long been re-established in the set-up since falling out of favour in controversial circumstances, and the Bath-bound fly-half captained the side for the first time when they staged a spectacular comeback win against France from 18-0 down at half-time in the warm-ups. Scotland are on an upward trajectory under the impressive Townsend – but can they match the fearsome power of South Africa and Ireland?
Forwards
Ewan Ashman (8 caps) Edinburgh; Jamie Bhatti (31) Glasgow; Dave Cherry (9) Edinburgh; Luke Crosbie (5) Edinburgh; Scott Cummings (28) Glasgow; Rory Darge (10) Glasgow; Jack Dempsey (11) Glasgow; Matt Fagerson (35) Glasgow; Zander Fagerson (59) Glasgow; Grant Gilchrist (64) Edinburgh; Richie Gray (75) Glasgow; WP Nel (55) Edinburgh; Jamie Ritchie (captain, 42) Edinburgh; Pierre Schoeman (23) Edinburgh; Javan Sebastian (5) Edinburgh; Sam Skinner (27) Edinburgh; Rory Sutherland (25) Unattached; George Turner (37) Glasgow; Hamish Watson (58) Edinburgh.
Backs
Darcy Graham (35) Edinburgh; Chris Harris (43) Gloucester; Ben Healy (2) Edinburgh; George Horne (22) Glasgow; Huw Jones (38) Glasgow; Blair Kinghorn (46) Edinburgh; Ali Price (63) Glasgow; Cameron Redpath (7) Bath; Finn Russell (71) Bath; Ollie Smith (5) Glasgow; Kyle Steyn (12) Glasgow; Sione Tuipulotu (18) Glasgow; Duhan van der Merwe (30) Edinburgh; Ben White (15) Toulon.
Tonga – world ranking 15
Head coach Toutai Kefu Captain Sonatane Takulua RWC best Pool stage
Key player Charles Piutau is one of four former All Blacks in the squad and can be deployed at centre, wing or full-back. Post-tournament, the 31-year-old will head to play in Japan after five years at Bristol Bears.
Tonga have played in every Rugby World Cup bar 1991 but have never progressed to the last eight. The odds are against them making the quarter-finals at the ninth attempt but with the former Wallaby Toutai Kefu as head coach, they do not lack big-game experience in camp. Another former Australia international, Israel Folau, is now qualified for Tonga and has earned one cap, but has been ruled out by injury. Despite his ability the absence of such a controversial figure may make things easier for the rest – including yet another former Australia player, the lock Adam Coleman of London Irish.
Forwards
Sosefo 'Apikotoa (3 caps) Moana Pasifika; Adam Coleman (0) London Irish; Vaea Fifita (7) Scarlets; Siegfried Fisi'ihoi (18) Pau; Feao Fotuaika (2) Lyon; Solomone Funaki (14) Moana Pasifika; Tanginoa Halaifonua (8) Grenoble; Sione Havili Talitui (7) Crusaders; Tau Koloamatangi (3) Moana Pasifika; Paula Latu (1) Southland Stags; Samiuela Lousi (11) Scarlets; Sitiveni Mafi (35) Oyonnax; Siua Maile (12) Benetton; Samiuela Moli (13) Moana Pasifika; Paula Ngauamo (22) Castres; Semisi Paea (3) New England Free Jacks; Ben Tameifuna (24) Bordeaux Bègles; Sione Vailanu.
Backs
Pita Ahki; Malakai Fekitoa; William Havili; Fine Inisi; Solomone Kata; Otumaka Mausia; George Moala; Manu Paea; Salesi Piutau; Augustine Pulu; Sonatane Takulua.
Romania – world ranking 19
Head coach Eugen Apjok Captain Cristi Chirica RWC best Pool stage
Key player The 28-year-old loosehead prop, Alexandru Savin, represents Romania’s best hope of success in France: turning the screw on the opposition at scrum time.
Another nation never to have progressed beyond the pool stage, Romania have nonetheless enjoyed some memorable victories and will be determined to atone for missing out on qualification for Japan in 2019. They remarkably recovered from 15-0 down to beat Canada 17-15 in Leicester in 2015 and have also beaten Namibia, USA and Portugal. They will target Tonga as their best chance of recording a victory.
Romania
Forwards
Florin Bardasu (11 caps) CSA Steaua; Cristi Boboc (2) CSA Steaua; Costel Burtila (2) RC Hyères Carqueiranne La Crau; Cristi Chirica (29) CS Dinamo; Ovidiu Cojocaru (8) CS Dinamo; Thomas Cretu (1) Stade Francais; Gheorghe Gajion (0) Stade Montois; Alexandru Gordas (12) CS Dinamo; André Gorin (42) RC Carqueiranne Hyeres La Crau; Iulian Harțig (3) RC Bassin d’Arcachon; Stefan Iancu (5) US Carcassonne; Marius Iftimiciuc (10) US Carcassonne; Robert Irimescu (2) CSM Știința Baia Mare; Adrian Motoc (6) Biarritz Olympique; Vlad Neculau (2) SCM USV Timișoara; Florian Rosu (0) CSM Știința Baia Mare; Alexandru Savin (10) CSA Steaua; Dragos Ser (4) CSA Steaua; Damian Stratila (1) CSA Steaua.
Backs
Tudor Boldor (13) CS Dinamo; Alin Conache (4) SCM USV Timișoara; Tangimana Fonovai (17) CSA Steaua; Taylor Gontineac (7) Rouen Normandie; Tevita Manumua (0) SCM USV Timișoara; Nicolas Onutu (5) CS Vienne; Gabriel Pop (5) CS Dinamo; Gabriel Rupanu (1) SCM USV Timișoara; Florin Surugiu (101) CSA Steaua; Lama Sioeli (6) CSM Bucuresti; Taliauli Sikuea (1) Romanian Wolves; Marius Simionescu (6) SCM USV Timișoara; Jason Tomane (14) CSM Știința Baia Mare; Hinckley Vaovasa (6) CSA Steaua.
Fixtures
9 September: Ireland v Romania, Bordeaux, 2.30pm
10 September: South Africa v Scotland, Marseille, 4.45pm
16 September: Ireland v Tonga, Nantes, 8pm
17 September: South Africa v Romania, Bordeaux, 2pm
23 September: South Africa v Ireland, Paris, 8pm
24 September: Scotland v Tonga, Nice, 4.45pm
30 September: Scotland v Romania, Lille, 8pm
1 October: South Africa v Tonga, Marseille, 8pm
7 October: Ireland v Scotland, Paris, 8pm
8 October: Tonga v Romania, Lille, 4.45pm
