Russia’s withdrawal from around Kyiv and the north and north-east of Ukraine appears more comprehensive than most onlookers had anticipated. It will be a little while before the picture becomes definitive, but Moscow’s forces are now fast retreating out of the country from the Kyiv, Chernihiv and Sumy districts, Ukrainian regional officials say.
It is impossible to describe this as anything other than a serious reverse. Such is the haste of the exit that some units are being left behind to be mopped up by the Ukrainians. Sumy, a little over 30km from the Russian border, did not fall to the invaders, while the road to Chernihiv, which was at risk of encirclement, is now open to the capital to the south-west.
Kyiv too can breathe again: the month of danger has passed and the full withdrawal means that the capital is no longer in range of artillery fire – although it can still be struck by missiles from Belarus, if the Russians bloodymindedly choose to launch them. And, while it may appear that a re-invasion could happen again at any time, the reality is that unless something dramatic happens elsewhere it cannot succeed.
Russia’s problem is that its forces have taken significant losses from its overoptimistic, poorly planned multi-front attack. The number killed could be anywhere from 7,000 to 15,000, with wounded typically double that, from an invasion force of about 140,000. As Mark Cancian, a senior adviser at the US Center for Strategic and International Studies, wrote last week, it could be that Russia has lost “about a quarter of its initial combat force”.
Other estimates from western officials have suggested Russian combat effectiveness may be depleted by a fifth or a sixth, not as high perhaps but still operationally significant. The haste of the retreat acknowledges that the invaders are in many respects exhausted and need to concentrate operations, fighting street by street to take Mariupol in the south and a more conventional military campaign in the Donbas region, where Ukraine’s forces are dug in.
What will happen here is less certain. Russia still has the ability and desire to attack, and its forces are pressing south of Izyum, a key strategic point, to try to envelop the Ukrainian army that faces the separatist Donetsk and Luhansk territories to the east. But it appears its forces are having less success advancing north to join up from Velyka Novosilka, 100km north of Mariupol. And after nearly seven weeks of intense fighting, it is not at all certain Russia can keep up the effort.
“If Russia wants to push back Ukraine’s defenders near Donetsk and Luhansk, they will have to force them out of defensive positions Ukraine has had five more years to prepare. It will require heavy artillery support and a use of combined arms – infantry, tanks, artillery, air power – that we have not seen so far,” said Ben Barry, a land warfare specialist from the International Institute for Strategic Studies.
Ukraine says some Russian forces, brought up as reinforcements, are refusing to fight. On Sunday, its general staff said two battalions of Russian forces from South Ossetia, the breakaway region of Georgia, “refused to participate in combat” in Ukraine and would return to base. Although this cannot be verified for certain, there are enough reports of desertions and poor morale to believe Russian combat effectiveness is massively reduced – against an enemy determined to fight for its homeland.
Meanwhile, mercenaries from the Russian Wagner Group – whose number has been estimated at 1,000 – have been photographed in Donetsk. But these are no replacement for well-trained regular forces: Wagner forces have, for example, struggled in countries such as Mozambique, where they briefly tried to battle an insurgency in the Muslim north in 2019.
Ukraine will recognise the nature of the war has changed. Its supply lines, in particular weapons from the west, have become less fraught. But despite limited counter offensives, there is no sign its forces have the capability to push back the Russian forces where they have made gains in the east and the south. Calls for jets and tanks have gone unheeded, although Australia has promised to send Bushmaster armoured personnel carriers, which will help with mobility.
If Russia chooses to dig in, then the military balance – which typically favours the defender on a 3-1 ratio – is reversed. If its forces can complete the bloody recapture of Mariupol, the invaders will control the south between Crimea and the occupied Donbas – and with Odesa blockaded, ensure Ukraine has no access to the sea.
Ukraine has not been defeated, although it faces a fight on its hands in the Donbas. But without a change on the battlefield it may once again be partitioned de facto, against its will.
