One of the best pitchers of our generation hits the mound for his season debut on Thursday as Clayton Kershaw returns from shoulder surgery.
It's been a long road back for Kershaw, who had offseason shoulder surgery, but the hope is that he can bring some stability to the Dodgers' rotation in hopes of a World Series run.
With a limited MLB slate, Kershaw's first start headlines the card. Here's how we're betting his debut as well as the entire Thursday card.
Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook
Padres vs. Nationals Prediction and Pick
Pick: Padres (-180)
I can’t trust Patrick Corbin in most situations. Arguably the worst starter in the big leagues, Corbin has an xERA of 6.04 and has bashed by hard contact, third percentile at 47.8%.
Against a Padres team that has teed off against the Nats this week, plating four runs and then 12 on Wednesday, San Diego should roll comfortably with Dylan Cease on the mound.
Orioles vs. Marlins Prediction and Pick
Pick: Orioles (-230)
Corbin Burnes should further his Cy Young candidacy against the Marlins, who have the second lowest OPS in the big leagues.
Baltimore has far too much power for Miami in the final game of this series.
Tigers vs. Guardians Prediction and Pick
Pick: Tigers (+150)
Kenta Maeda has struggled a ton this season amidst diminished velocity on his fastball. Without a punch out pitch, 16th percentile strikeout rate, teams have teed off on the veteran right hander who has an ERA north of 7.00.
However, this is about the price tag, and I’m willing to fade the Guardians with Gavin Williams on the mound, who has posted a 4.50 ERA through four starts with an xERA of 5.31.
Maeda’s underlying metrics paint a better picture, he has a 4.74 xERA, and I’m willing to take a shot on the underdog.
White Sox vs. Rangers Prediction and Pick
Pick: Rangers (-245)
The Rangers are far too strong for the White Sox at the plate, and the veteran Max Scherezer should be able to navigate a Chicago team that is dead last in OPS as a unit.
Chicago can’t hit, and the team’s bullpen is nearly as bad, third in ERA as a unit, which will put plenty of pressure on Jonathan Cannon to show up. However, he has struggled to punch out batters, 15th percentile in strikeout rate, so I imagine Texas will be able to do enough to get another win.
Rays vs. Blue Jays Prediction and Pick
Pick: Rays (-105)
Taj Bradley has become one of the most productive pitchers in the big leagues. The second year pro has an ERA of 2.63 in 13 starts since May 1st, shutting down opponents with a nasty split finger pitcher and powerful fastball that touches 100 miles per hour.
I’ll trust Bradley to keep down an emerging Blue Jays lineup while the offense can make inroads against Toronto starter Chris Bassitt. The righty has an ERA of 3.71, but with a lower strikeout rate than his career norm, his xERA sits at 4.23.
I’ll bank on the up-and-coming star in Bradley.
Giants vs. Dodgers Prediction and Pick
Pick: Dodgers (-140)
It’s fair to question if Clayton Kershaw can perform to expectations in his first start of the season against the Giants, but this is more of a fade of Giants starter Logan Webb, who is getting far too much credit in the market.
Webb has been crushed by hard contact, second in hard-hit percentage, which is dangerous against a Dodgers lineup that is tops in the bigs in OPS.
I’ll stick with the home team on Thursday.
Braves vs. Mets Prediction and Pick
Pick: Mets (-105)
Chris Sale is the NL Cy Young favorite, but the Mets are scorching at the plate and are a tough matchup for him, second in OPS against left handed pitching this season.
New York comes in in good form while Atlanta’s injuries are starting to mount, 8-10 in the month of July, and even if this is a low scoring affair, I’ll side with the team in better form.
Athletics vs. Angels Prediction and Pick
Pick: Athletics (-105)
When two bottom feeder teams like the Angels and Athletics meet, I’m always inclined to take the underdog.
This matchup sets up particularly well for Oakland, who is 12th in OPS against left handed pitching and has a slight total pitching edge against the Angels, who are counting on Kenny Rosenberg who has been used as a minor league arm for much of his career.
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
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This article was originally published on www.si.com as Rounding the Bases: MLB Straight Up Picks for Every Game Today (How to Bet Clayton Kershaw's Season Debut).
