The NFL’s priorities have shifted. Wide receivers are officially more valuable than pass rushers.
An anomaly that started with DeAndre Hopkins’ two-year, $54.5 million contract extension with the Arizona Cardinals has become a trend. On March 17, Davante Adams signed a five-year, $140 million deal after being traded to the Las Vegas Raiders. Six days later, Tyreek Hill exceeded that with a $120 million contract that will pay him an average of $30 million annually in Miami.
That’s the new standard for elite receiving talent going forward — a salary figure once reserved for starting quarterbacks, taking up between 12 to 15 percent of a team’s salary cap. Pro Bowl talent, based on deals signed by Mike Williams, Chris Godwin, and DJ Moore this offseason, is more affordable but still clocks in at $20 million per year — between eight to 10 percent of the league’s cap going forward.
This new marketplace is lucrative for wideouts but difficult for teams attempting to fit them on the same roster as an established quarterback. The Packers and Chiefs both had to ditch their All-Pro targets after deciding it untenable to commit more than 35 percent of their spending room on two offensive players. Similarly tough decisions will have to be made this offseason and next with a pending 2023 free agent class headlined by Deebo Samuel, AJ Brown, Terry McLaurin, and DK Metcalf.
There is one reliable option waiting for teams looking for upper crust production on a middle-class salary this spring, however. Over the past two years, the NFL Draft has dropped ready-made pro wideouts onto the rosters of teams for a fraction of their actual worth. With another stacked class of pass-catching talent this spring, 2022 promises more of the same.
Drake London has the buzz of a potential top 10 selection and hasn’t even worked out in front of scouts yet as he rehabs the broken ankle that ended his final season at USC after eight games (and 1,084 receiving yards). Ohio State teammates Garrett Wilson and Chris Olave both look like gamebreakers capable of separating from defenders before and after the catch. Jahan Dotson, Jameson Williams, and Treylon Burks have all been popular Day 1 picks in mock drafts this spring.
While that group likely won’t break the league record of seven WRs selected in the first round set back in 2004, it could challenge 2020’s mark of 13 wideouts drafted over the first two rounds. That’s a testament to this year’s depth and athleticism — nine different receivers ran sub-4.4 second 40-yard dashes at this year’s Combine — and the heightened value of elite receiving talent.
4.26u, holy moly.@OhioStateFB WR @chrisolave_ with a jaw-dropping 40.
📺: #NFLCombine on @nflnetwork pic.twitter.com/xKZxr9Cd78
— NFL (@NFL) March 4, 2022
Let’s look at some of the excess value created in the last two classes of premier wide receivers. Justin Jefferson has played at a Hopkins/Adams/Hill level in his two All-Pro seasons in the league. If he keeps that up in 2022 and 2023, he’ll have given the Minnesota Vikings, per the NFL’s new market value, roughly $56 to 60 million of wideout production. Thanks to his inexpensive rookie contract, he’ll only cost the team $7.7 million in salary cap space.
Jefferson’s presence creates at least $48 million in excess value. While the Vikings will spend much of that in guaranteed money for Kirk Cousins to disappoint residents of the Twin Cities, better franchises will use that space to build championship teams.
It’s happening in Cincinnati, where Joe Burrow and Ja’Marr Chase played like a $70 million tandem in 2021 but will only cost a shade under $17 million in 2022. The savings generated allowed the team to retain Jessie Bates III via the franchise tag while adding La’el Collins, Alex Cappa, and Ted Karras to a revamped offensive line. Though the rest of the AFC has bulked up considerably this offseason, the Bengals are in great position to build from their stunning AFC Championship season.
Jefferson and Chase are merely two high profile examples of young wideouts who came to the league as part of a hyped class and made an immediate impact. You can make similar cases for players like DeVonta Smith, Jaylen Waddle, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Tee Higgins, and CeeDee Lamb. Get the right rookie wide receiver and you’ll get a player who can save you more than $100 million against the salary cap over the course of his rookie contract.
This is a lottery ticket, but one with good odds. Eleven members of 2020’s class already have at least 1,000 receiving yards to their credit and will only grow in stature. Last year’s class has been less productive, but features several players primed for bigger roles next fall including Elijah Moore and Rashod Bateman. Nine of the 11 first round wideouts selected in that stretch have at least one season as a full time starter under their belts. While disappointments like Jalen Reagor loom, the benefits outweigh the risk.
Some teams will wait out this year’s draft deluge, knowing late-round success stories remain viable, especially with the recent impacts of St. Brown and Darnell Mooney. That, expectedly, comes with higher risk. The Packers, for example, have drafted eight wideouts in round two or later since landing Adams in 2014. The most useful player in that crop was Marquez Valdes-Scantling, who has never had more than 38 catches in a single season.
Either way, teams will pay extra attention to wideout at this April’s draft, some even if they have an established veteran presence in their lineup. Between the recent impact of young wideouts and the rising price of star talent, a high-ceiling target may be too tempting for some teams to pass up.
The value of finding a stud wide receiver goes beyond their contributions on the field. With the standard set at $30 million per year thanks to Hill’s contract, a productive young pass catcher can fix a lot more than just a passing attack.
