Romania’s constitutional court has validated the shock first-round result in the country’s presidential election, setting the stage for a runoff vote that could upend its pro-western orientation and undermine its backing for Ukraine.
The ruling clears the uncertainty that has hung over the country since the court demanded a vote recount last week, after the victory of a little-known far-right candidate raised suspicions of outside meddling in the electoral process of a country that has been a staunch ally of Ukraine.
Cǎlin Georgescu, a Moscow-friendly ultranationalist, will now face the centre-right contender Elena Lasconi in a runoff on Sunday.
The much-anticipated court decision was announced a day after Romania held a parliamentary election in which the ruling Social Democrat party (PSD) appeared on course to win the most votes.
Who will eventually form the government will depend on who wins the presidential race, since the president designates a prime minister from a parliamentary majority.
On Monday officials said that with 99.5% of votes counted in the parliamentary election, the centre-left PSD had 22.6% of the vote, with the far-right Alliance for the Union of Romanians (AUR) in second place, with 18.2%.
The National Liberal party (PNL), the Social Democrats’ coalition ally in Romania’s outgoing government, was in third on 14.4%.
With the centre-right Save Romania Union (USR) on 12.1%, the near-final result means about seven out of 10 Romanians voted for mainstream parties, defying predictions the country would veer hard right after the first round of the presidential election on 24 November.
Georgescu’s first-round win, which came after a campaign based heavily on viral TikTok videos that he said was run with zero budget, had prompted fears of foreign interference and a nationalist clean sweep.
In the event, with two other radical groups, SOS Romania and the party of Young People (POT), scoring 7.6% and 6.3% respectively, the far-right gains on Sunday were substantial but not enough to win control of parliament.
Analysts said the rise in support for the far right was fuelled by voter anger over the cost of living and a legacy of corruption among its mainstream parties. Romania has the EU’s biggest share of people at risk of poverty, its highest inflation rate and largest budget deficit.
“Today the Romanian people voted for pro-sovereignty forces,” said the AUR leader, George Simion. “It is the beginning of a new era, in which the Romanian people reclaim the right to decide their own destiny,” he added.
Lasconi said the mainstream parties should set aside their differences to defend “democracy in Romania, staying in the European Union and in Nato”. Together, she told supporters after the parliamentary vote, “we can do wonders”.
But although in principle a pro-west, mainstream coalition led by the PSD looks a likely outcome, analysts said the highly fragmented nature of the new parliament meant that negotiations would prove very difficult and could take weeks.
The PSD was due to meet on Monday to decide its negotiating terms. “We expect democratic, pro-EU parties to understand that the PSD can be the balancing factor around which a future majority can be formed,” said the party’s vice-president, Victor Negrescu.
Much will depend, however, on who wins the presidency.
The presidential office has said government officials detected online efforts to influence voting in the presidential ballot, including “massive exposure due to preferential treatment” on TikTok.
The Chinese-owned social media platform has repeatedly dismissed the allegations, saying it enforced all guidelines against election misinformation.
Georgescu has called for an end to the war in Ukraine, denied the existence of Covid-19, described two second world war-era Romanian fascists as “national heroes” and claimed that in foreign affairs Romania would benefit from “Russian wisdom”.
The electoral uncertainty has undermined public trust in Romania’s state institutions, with many voters saying they felt the constitutional court’s deliberations amounted to an attempt by the mainstream parties to cling on to power.
The parallel elections are seen as critical to the future direction of Romania, hitherto a reliable EU and Nato ally – and strategically important for western support for Ukraine – that has largely evaded nationalism since emerging from communism in 1989.
Reuters contributed to this report.
