Robert Whittaker wonders if Israel Adesanya will come back a different fighter after the longest layoff of his UFC career.
Adesanya (24-3 MMA, 13-3 UFC) went out of action for 11 months after losing his middleweight title to Sean Strickland last September at UFC 293. In the meantime, Dricus Du Plessis (21-2 MMA, 7-0 UFC) outlasted Strickland to claim the belt at UFC 297.
Now Adesanya will get an opportunity to reclaim his title when he challenges Du Plessis in Saturday’s UFC 305 (pay-per-view, ESPN, ESPN+) headliner at RAC Arena in Perth, Australia. Based off their most recent outings against common opponent Strickland, Whittaker sees a blueprint for Du Plessis to beat Adesanya.
“Dricus, his last fight against Strickland, he moved forward, he put pressure on Strickland, didn’t let Strickland do that to him, shut his game down, was very aggressive, crowded that space, didn’t let Strickland really find the rhythm that he likes to fight in, and came away with the decision win,” Whittaker said on his “MMAracade Podcast.” “Strickland, prior to that fight, fought Adesanya and did exactly that to Israel: pushed into his space, didn’t allow Adesanya to utilize that dangerous space that he likes fighting in. He crowded him to a point where he didn’t let him have any free distancing from the fence so that he could move away and be evasive because he loves fighting on that.
“He’s very tall, he fights very tall, and he likes countering. He slips back, he leans back, a lot of weight on that rear leg to get away from the punch and the strikes, and moves out, circles out. Strickland closed that gap, crowded that space, kept Adesanya’s back to the fence for 90 percent of the fight and beat Adesanya by decision win. … Dricus was able to push that plan against Strickland that Strickland was able to push against Adesanya. So, you would have to think Dricus is going to push that same plan on Adesanya. And I guess the million-dollar question is, what has Izzy done in his layoff since the Strickland fight to make sure that doesn’t happen again? Because you can bet your bottom dollar Dricus is going to push into that.”
Whittaker also mapped out a path to victory for Adesanya.
“They are 50-50 odds, that is how much I think either one could sway,” Whittaker said. “I think there is a 50 percent chance Izzy kind of keeps him at his end of the jab, utilizes that spacing, doesn’t get his back get put against the fence, defends some takedowns, but ultimately wins by decision.
“I also think there is a 50 percent chance Dricus does what he did to Strickland. Pushes into that space, takes him down, wears him out, turns it into a dogfight. Doesn’t get a finish but drags it out to the point where he still is the reigning champ. Fifty-50, my money is on those two results, kinds of methods of winning.”
Whittaker’s most recent loss came to Du Plessis at UFC 290, where he was stopped by second-round TKO. He admits he was surprised by the South African’s performance.
“I felt like he was slow and cumbersome, and then he punched me in the face,” Whittaker said of Du Plessis. “And that might be one of his greatest weapons, just a fly under the radar that makes people think he’s not up to snuff, then you get in there with him and he beats you. … Probably Dricus by decision. Probably, I don’t know.”
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