Before the NFL draft later this month and the rookie class that comes with it, I feel it’s important to attune your mind to player values ahead of redraft season or by tweaking your dynasty rosters via trade—in the same way front offices and general managers prep their rosters around the league. Not only establishing an internal positional set of rankings, but also how your opinions are different from a sort of broader general consensus.
Buy & Sell: Quarterbacks | Running Backs | Wide Receivers | Tight Ends
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TE Buy
Robert Tonyan, Green Bay Packers
Playing in just eight games a year ago, Tonyan’s 2020 breakout is now long in the rearview. Working in his favor is a suddenly depleted pass attack to be featured on the frozen tundra of Lambeau Field. Davante Adams and Marquez Valdes-Scantling’s departures freed up 224 targets, 149 receptions, 1,983 yards and 14 touchdowns. I’d be happy to see Tonyan take on about 15% of that.
Ahead of 2021, Tonyan was typically drafted as the TE9. Now, he’s fallen far, to the consensus TE22. Last year, the 22nd TE off the board (Pat Freiermuth) was being drafted around the middle of the 18th round—that’s borderline unddrafted in many shallow league formats.
I don’t mind taking Tonyan as a backup TE flier, or if I’m feeling frisky, I’ll punt the position and draft back-to-back tight ends near the end of my redrafts. Is it inevitable that the Packers draft a receiver? Probably. Will they sign a veteran WR as well? I’d think so. But from where I’m sitting, no pass-catcher has done as much in their career as Tonyan and that’s got to be worth something with Aaron Rodgers under center. In “average” years, he can throw 30 touchdowns and I’ll take those odds with Tonyan at this price point.
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Albert Okwuegbunam, Denver Broncos
I look at it like this: If the Broncos even kind of believed in Noah Fant, they wouldn’t have included him in the trade for Russell Wilson. You might think, “Well if you can get Wilson, you give up whatever it takes.” Sure, of course. However, Fant was still on his rookie deal and exercising a fifth-year option would’ve been dirt cheap. All that value from a low cap hit, yet his upside was still valued for less.
Again, if Denver believed in him at all, they would’ve traded a pick or another player instead. It says a lot to me that they’d rather move on and hand the reins to Okwuegbunam. That tells me that there's some combination of preferring AO and not liking Fant; so, I'm hoping that preference will be indicative of his fantasy emergence.
The third-year tight end is a strong sleeper candidate given the boost provided by Wilson at quarterback and more consistent opportunities as the team’s TE1. This offense also has one of the most promising running backs in Javonte Williams, so there’s a lot trending in the right direction here on paper.
Last year, Fant saw 15 red-zone targets for 11 receptions for 91 yards and four touchdowns. I’d say you can now slot those to AO and with a more consistent offense, we can anticipate a potential breakout for a tight end ranked as the consensus TE16. I expect his ranking to approach TE10 by the late summer.
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TE Sell
Dallas Goedert, Philadelphia Eagles
Since tight ends are so red-zone and touchdown dependent, it’s hard to really be down on anyone. Instead I’m going to focus on players who are ranked among the top 12 at their position but lack upside and are being drafted at the high end of their potential. All that said, I couldn’t wait for Goedert to finally get this opportunity to be the team’s TE1. Oh wait, he was last year. In 15 games, he saw 56 receptions on 76 targets for 830 yards and four touchdowns. Jalen Hurts's rushing ability hurts Goedert’s red-zone value. While we are seeing a noticeable jump in yardage (career-highs in yards per catch, first downs, longest reception, yards per target), those things don’t matter much with a relatively low-volume receiver.
Is it possible Hurts makes a leap as a passer and we see a significant jump to Goedert’s targets and opportunity? I suppose anything’s possible. But when you’re drafting a low- to mid-tier TE1, they’re a dime a dozen. I’d rather wait four or five rounds, secure my flex plays at receiver and handcuffs at running back. The scoring differential gap between guys like Goedert and Dalton Schultz and Hunter Henry and so on is at most a point or two per game.
Goedert occupies a no-man’s-land for me where I will feel like I’m reaching for him if he’s available and someone else is bound to value him more than myself. As the consensus fantasy TE7, I’m passing on him this year.
