Fortune favours the brave, so if Gareth Southgate is inclined to change formation against France, I hope he has second thoughts.
The World Cup quarter-final is England's moment of truth. With the possible exception of last year's win over Germany at the Euros, beating the holders wouldn't just be their biggest win against a major football nation in a knockout tie since 1966. It would give Southgate's players the belief they really can lift the lift the trophy next weekend.
If there was any doubt before, there can't be any now: As a coach, Southgate is at his best at major tournaments. You don't reach a World Cup semi-final in 2018, the Euro 2020 final and now the last eight of another World Cup if you don't know what you're doing.
But I hope he resists the temptation to tinker with a winning formula and switch to a back three against France to try and nullify the threat of Kylian Mbappe.
If Southgate goes home this weekend, he must be carried out on his shield sticking to his beliefs. England are the top scorers in Qatar, they have not conceded a goal for 270 minutes and if it ain't broke, why fix it? Let France worry about England's front five hurting them, not the other way round.
I've compiled a hybrid Anglo-French combined XI, and there are more England players in it than French – which I think reflects the relative strength of the two squads in Qatar: Lloris; Walker, Kounde, Varane, Shaw; Rice, Bellingham, Griezmann; Mbappe, Kane, Foden.
If Southgate changes formation and England come unstuck, it will be open season on him among the critics. Why on earth change shape and tactics for France? Yes, they are the World Cup holders and, yes, they have quality all over the pitch – Kylian Mbappe is the best player on the planet right now – but they are NOT superhuman. They are NOT unbeatable.
If I were Southgate, I would rather go out all guns blazing than err on the side of caution. At the Euro 2020 final against Italy, England dominated for half an hour but went into their shells, and that defensive mindset cost them in the end.
And if he switches to three central defenders, with Kyle Walker and Luke Shaw as wing-backs, that will leave spaces in wide areas if England lose the ball up the pitch, playing into the hands of Mbappe and Ousmane Dembele.
In short, England have got to believe they can beat France – and pick a team to reflect that belief. There's no need to be gung-ho, but if Southgate reverts to three at the back and it goes wrong, he will be pilloried.
That's the life of an England coach, but I don't want to see him suffer that fate. I like Gareth, he has been an impressive leader and his reign as coach does not deserve to be remembered in a negative way.
He has won more knockout games at the World Cup than any England manager in 150 years, and a third consecutive semi-final at major tournaments would put him in the very highest bracket alongside Sir Alf Ramsey. So for me, there is no dilemma.
You often hear managers telling their players to leave no regrets on the pitch, so Southgate must follow suit and seize the moment.
Don't meddle with a winning formula in the name of caution. Be brave, be bold, stick with that back four - and I think England will edge it.
