Second in an occasional series
After the first installment of the “Roads to the Majority,” I’m sure most readers had Willie Nelson’s 1980 classic “On the Road Again” stuck in their heads, anxiously awaiting a sequel. So, we’ve shifted focus to the opposite coast to Interstate 95.
With all of the talk about the presidential race, the debate and recent Supreme Court decisions, it’s important to remember there’s a battle for the House majority as well.
Talking about a “path to the majority” is typical political parlance — it means adding up the seats each party would need to win to get to 218. But there are also a handful of literal roads that connect competitive congressional seats.
So we’re taking a road trip down some of the nation’s highways and byways (OK, really just highways) to understand whether Republicans or Democrats will control the House next year. Initially, we traveled Interstate 5, a stretch of 1,400 miles on the West Coast that includes a dozen competitive House races.
This week, we’re traveling I-5’s East Coast cousin: Interstate 95, which stretches more than 1,900 miles from Miami through 15 states to northern Maine, on the border with Canada.
Along the journey, the interstate runs through six districts rated as competitive by Inside Elections. Democrats currently control four of those districts (North Carolina’s 1st, Virginia’s 7th, New Hampshire’s 1st and Maine’s 2nd) while Republicans control just two (Florida’s 27th and New Jersey’s 7th).
At a minimum, Democrats need to hold their own along Interstate 95 to have a chance at gaining the four seats necessary to win the House majority. And those chances get better if they can gain a seat along the East Coast corridor.
So get some more snacks, adjust your playlist, download some podcasts like this one or that one and buckle up. Here’s a breakdown of the races, separated by region and how the highway is known there.
South: ‘95’
Beginning from the south, the road trip has an inauspicious start. The southernmost point of Interstate 95 begins in Miami in Florida’s 27th District, which is on the outskirts of the House battlefield.
Under different political conditions or a few election cycles ago, the race would have been more exciting. But Republican gains with Hispanic voters in South Florida, the lack of a strong challenger to GOP Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar, and the high cost of television ads in the Miami media market are preventing this year’s race from getting much attention. The race is rated Likely Republican.
Republican redistricting efforts have made Florida virtually irrelevant in the general election in the fight for the House majority.
A decade ago, Georgia’s 12th District would have made the list. But Republicans redrew the map prior to the 2012 elections and removed Savannah (and the point where Interstate 95 passes through the district) to endanger Democratic Rep. John Barrow. Republican Rick Allen finally defeated Barrow in 2014, and the district is no longer along 95 or considered competitive.
But farther north, North Carolina’s 1st District is one of the most competitive races in the country. Republicans redrew the congressional map last year, effectively forcing Democratic Reps. Kathy Manning, Wiley Nickel and Jeff Jackson out of the House by making their districts unwinnable for Democrats and endangering first-term Democratic Rep. Don Davis.
The 1st District sits east of Raleigh in the northeast corner of the state and is one of 10 races rated as a Toss-up by Inside Elections. If Democrats win all of the races they are currently favored to win, then they’d need to win nine of the 10 toss-up seats around the country to get to the requisite 218. Davis is also one of Roll Call’s 10 Most Vulnerable House members.
Republicans nominated retired Army colonel and defense contractor Laurie Buckhout in a district drawn to help the GOP nominee. Joe Biden won the old version of the district by 7 points in 2020, and Davis won it by 5 points in 2022. But Biden would have won this redrawn version by just a single point in 2020, and all seven statewide Democrats on the ballot in 2022 fell short of their GOP opponents under the configuration being used in November.
About 100 miles farther north, between Richmond and Washington, D.C., is Virginia’s 7th District. There’s no incumbent running for reelection because Democratic Rep. Abigail Spanberger is focusing on her 2025 run for governor.
The winner of the Democratic primary for the seat last month was Eugene Vindman, who became a national figure when he and his twin brother, Alex, blew the whistle on then-President Donald Trump’s 2019 call with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, which led to Trump’s first impeachment. Vindman will face Iraq and Afghanistan war veteran and attorney Derek Anderson on the Republican side. Biden defeated Trump in the district with 52 percent in 2020, but Republican Glenn Youngkin won the district with 52 percent when he was elected governor in 2021. The 7th District race is rated Tilt Democratic.
New Jersey: ‘The Turnpike’
In New Jersey, Interstate 95 is known as the Turnpike, and it cuts through the far eastern edge of the 7th District, represented by Republican Thomas H. Kean Jr. It’s a suburban district that stretches west, away from New York City and the Turnpike, to the border with Pennsylvania, near Easton and Allentown.
By the numbers, the 7th looks competitive. Biden won it with 51 percent in 2022, but Republicans have a 4.3-point Baseline advantage (51 percent to 46.7 percent) according to Inside Elections’ calculations following the 2022 election, which include four cycles of election results.
Even though Democrats regard Kean as an underwhelming figure, he’s proven to be difficult to defeat with a moderate reputation and deep political roots (his father by the same name was governor for most of the 1980s).
It’s the type of race Democrats might be able to win in a better political environment with a stronger top of the ticket, because former New Jersey Working Families Alliance director Sue Altman is going to need help defeating the incumbent. The race is rated Tilt Republican.
New England: ‘95’
On a long drive north through New York and just out of reach of Connecticut’s 5th District is New Hampshire’s 1st. It’s the smaller of the Granite State’s two seats, geographically, taking in the eastern third of the state.
Biden only won the district with 52 percent in 2020, so it’s reasonable to believe the race should be competitive. But Democratic Rep. Chris Pappas is an inoffensive incumbent who stays out of the headlines, and there’s a lack of clarity of the matchup because of the late Sept. 10 GOP primary. Former executive councilor Russell Prescott, steel fabricator Hollie Noveletsky, Army veteran Chris Bright, former state Rep. Max Abramson and Manchester Alderman Joseph Levasseur are all running on the Republican side.
Even though New Hampshire has gone from a swing state to leaning Democratic in recent years, it has a reputation for going with the national political environment. The race is rated Lean Democratic and could break late in the cycle.
The road and the story literally end in Maine’s 2nd District, as 95 stretches through Bangor, past Millinocket (home to 2014 gubernatorial nominee and former Democratic Rep. Mike Michaud) to New Brunswick, Canada.
Rep. Jared Golden is a rare Democrat who represents a district Trump carried in 2020 (specifically, by 7 points) but the incumbent has cultivated a profile that fits the rural district. Republicans believe former NASCAR driver and state Rep. Austin Theriault is a tougher matchup for Golden, and it’s not yet clear if his reversal on gun policy in the wake of a Lewiston mass shooting has harmed his standing. The race is rated Lean Democratic, but that could be generous to Golden depending on the hole Biden is digging for him at the top of the ticket.
The post Roads to the House majority: Interstate 95 appeared first on Roll Call.
